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The smart play (once again)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Plowman, Jun 4, 2023.

  1. RC Cola

    RC Cola Contributing Member

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    As the self proclaimed Jarace Walker hater, I think he's likely to be a good player, but I'm not sure I'd go that direction. If you believe in the core we have, then maybe you can talk me into a plan involving trading down and getting Walker and maybe one of Anthony Black, Cason Wallace, Gradey Dick, Ausar Thompson, etc.

    Ultimately, I feel like Walker is likely to be more of a role player than some foundational piece. Maybe an elite role player, but a role player nevertheless. This is complicated by the fact that he seems like a 4/5 (honestly maybe more of a 5?), and we already have guys like Sengun and Jabari expected to get major minutes there (plus possibly a vet center). If you think he or Jabari can play the 3 (I'm not so optimistic about either), then you run into issues with Tari/KJ and likely another vet. Maybe he can outplay Jabari or Sengun, but I'm assuming if that happens, it is because Jabari/Sengun just massively disappoint. At that point, not sure I really care what happens. I'd feel better about taking a chance with Jarace if we had a bigger hole in those positions/skillsets. It doesn't help there are IMO comparable talents available in the draft that *do* possess skills that are currently lacking on the team.

    He seems like a high IQ guy with some high end attributes, so I wouldn't be surprised if this take looks very foolish in a few years. But yeah, I'd rather roll the dice on one of the high ceiling guys.
     
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  2. groovemachine

    groovemachine Member

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    Walker is a very solid pick in the 6-8 range, trading back and drafting Jarace while picking up another vet in the deal probably is the best way to improve the team next season.


     
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  3. groovemachine

    groovemachine Member

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    Walker is a very solid pick in the 6-8 range, trading back and drafting Jarace while picking up another vet in the deal probably is the best way to improve the team next season.


     
  4. maj21

    maj21 Member

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    Him being 6’6” really discourages me. Why not go with Taylor Hendricks instead?
     
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  5. RC Cola

    RC Cola Contributing Member

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    I don't disagree per se, though I think if you're going for high ceiling type guys (hopefully top ~20 in the NBA), that ends up being it's own position (i.e., superstar vs PG or SF). Like a Lebron, Giannis, Tatum, Butler, Kawhi, etc needs to be able to playmake more than the typical SF/wing player, and that does require a good amount of BBIQ and feel. You can remove that responsibility from a player and just limit them to basic passing/playmaking, but then they basically just become a role player. Maybe an elite one, but still a role player heavily dependent on another player.

    Whitmore in particular I think has some (potentially?) elite 1v1 moves (including a nice stepback game IIRC). I think to proper maximize those aspects of his game, you'll want the ball to be in his hands quite a bit. But if he can't pass or make good reads, his ceiling will be heavily reduced. I'd probably argue that's a bigger limitation than a lack of shooting for a lead ball handler, but that's probably not super relevant to this general discussion.

    And as I've pointed out elsewhere, I don't think it is super easy to teach or develop those things. Spinella actually listed this as the toughest thing to learn or develop in his recent mailbag podcast (vs something like strength, which most guys can get naturally over time). I don't mind taking a chance on Whitmore, especially given his unique situation, but as I've pointed out, I think the odds of him reaching his ceiling are probably similar to someone like Amen.


    And both are probably more likely to hit that level than Jarace I think. Though I think Jarace has a better chance to actually be good...and maybe win a championship...if that makes any sense.
     
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  6. Hank McDowell

    Hank McDowell Member

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    Whitmore, Walker, or trade the pick...
     
  7. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    This is just a crap shoot, for all I care Ausar could be the All Star out of those 4-5 and tap into his potential, of doing it all plus shooting at above average level.

    Nobody really knows for sure other than they all make decent NBA players but who is the All Star?
     
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  8. RC Cola

    RC Cola Contributing Member

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    That is 100% true, and I couldn't agree more. It would not surprise me if someone in that 6-15 range ended up being the best player in this draft (even better than Wemby). Of course, I don't know who that guy is, and if I did, I'd be working in an NBA front office. At best, you just try to extrapolate which guy is most likely to hit that mark, and certainly some are more likely than others, but it is all relative. In absolute terms, the chances are probably pretty small.

    On a side note, I wouldn't classify Ausar as an above average shooter (more likely to be below average IMO). But he would be a good example of someone drafted (likely) outside the top 5 who might end up the best player (or certainly one of the best).
     
  9. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    I almost agree with you .... about swinging for the fences when you don't have a star but to take that chance.

    But with a top pick, I need a high likelihood of success not something remotely possible like winning the Powerball odds.

    With Amen's shooting, I feel like it's the latter - Powerball odds that he does something he's never done in his 20+ years.
    The guy has been groomed to be an NBA player from a young age yet he lacks the most basic fundamental skill?
    I just can't bank the entire future on whether Amen figures out how to shoot. It's a fatal flaw.
     
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  10. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    My Top 4 Mock 1.0

    #1 Spurs: Wemby
    #2 Hornets: Scoot Henderson.....LeMelo or Rozier gets traded
    #3 --trade-- Raptors: Amen Thompson (VanVleet leaves...
    Amen-Scottie Barnes facilitating and running offense thru them)

    #4 Rockets: Brandon Miller or trade pick
     
    #30 ApacheWarrior, Jun 4, 2023
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2023
  11. dmoneybangbang

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    I think he is a candidate if we end up moving back a little bit.
     
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  12. PeppermintCandy

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    Barring character issues regarding Miller, I'm also hoping to see something like this to happen.
    But the top three of Wemby and Henderson/Miller is looking more and more set to me.

    I think the Rockets will be choosing among Thompson, Whitmore, etc. if they choose to keep the pick.
    Or unless they trade up into the top three.
     
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  13. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Yes, as soon as the draft positions came out last season
    I said that the Magic would draft Banchero.......Jabari was
    automatic guaranteed #1 to Orlando. So I was told.

    I had a member here from Orlando that said local radio stations
    and consensus polling for weeks among Orlando fans was Jabari.
    That the Magic would be picking Jabari.

    I told that member, the draft is in about two months.....a lot can
    change in two months. Don't believe all the smoke and mirrors.

    Then they drafted Banchero
     
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  14. PeppermintCandy

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    Fair point. And I'm making assumptions with very limited knowledge of the situation.

    Last year, there were three guys at the top. The consensus seemed to be Jabari Smith at Number 1, with Holdgren and Banchero rounding out the top three. In the end, the order was of course wrong, but those three players stayed at the top of the draft.

    I'm more and more expecting the top of the ranking to not change this year either. I just don't see Amen Thompson as a strong enough candidate for some team to take in the top three outright. But I'll be happy to be proven wrong. :)
     
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  15. fattz

    fattz Member

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    Here is the smart play… reset the rebuild and don’t hold onto the hope of a maybe.

    trade
    withOKC
    #4
    For
    #12 & our FRPs back

    with Orlando
    Green & Marin
    For
    #6 & #11 plus a future unprotected FRP
    Culture is reset and team is ready
    for the new Coach we draft only defensive minded player.

    #6 point - Black
    #11 big - Hendricks or Lively
    #12 BPA
    #20 draft & stash - Bilal Coulidaly

    Before free agency: (limited)
    => Black (just play and grow)/ Washington (spark plug role)
    => Porter (now or never, green light show the world) / Christopher (waiting for his chance)
    => Tate (now or never) / Eason (role in college)
    => Smith (better in a system / anchor our defense) / Garuba (this year’s hero)
    => Sengun (it’s now your team) / Rookie
    Plus FRP #12
    Run the offense through Sengun in the high post so there is space for cutters. We won’t win a lot at first but we got our pick back and there is a lot of talent on the team. In time with a change here or there we will win championships.
     
  16. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    I always felt Banchero would be the choice for the Magic.
     
  17. Francis3422

    Francis3422 Member

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    Jabari Smith will prove his worth. I ******* love Banchero (see my post history at that time) but he wouldnt work that well with our current roster.

    We need to allow Porter, Green, Sengun and Smith to grow. 1-3 will become all stars or more. Give u pn then when they are 23 or 24.

    Walker might be a waste at 4 (so high) but does so much for that lineup. I really like Whotmore as well. Really advanced for 18x. He would clearly be #1 next year IMo.
     
  18. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Front offices and owners give the green light and pick players and not mock drafters and fans.
     
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  19. prs325

    prs325 Member

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    Jarace Walker or Taylor Hendricks?
    Who would be the ideal to pair with Jabari, cover Senguns defensive deficiencies while benefiting from Alpi’s offensive gifts?

    My vote is Hendricks
     
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  20. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Well the Raptors will lose VanVleet and are ready to move up
    with either Houston or Portland. They are dangling Siakim and/or
    OG in order to get Amen or Scoot. Unfortunately the price for #2 is
    too high while being content for Amen at #3.

    Portland needs to bring Dame help.....Raps would love to bring back
    Simmons with Amen Thompson as their pick. They are high on SF's
    and PF's.....saw Scottie Barnes as an amazing facilitator and distributor
    and now want to add a second one. Which has been my model for years.
    Only I want a bunch of 6'5" to 6'9" players that can shoot as well.

    Raps probably need to jump Houston in order to get Thompson if no deal
    is made with Houston.

    I for one accept Siakim if I'm trading out my scrubs and Sengun:
    Siakim 22/23......PPP.......NBA percentile
    Iso........................1.00............51.0 ( better than Doncic )
    Transition............1.22............
    60.4
    PnR B Handler......0.93...........46.1
    PnR Roller.............0.91...........40.0
    Post up.................1.02............53.0
    Spot up.................0.88............35.3

    Cutter....................1.49............71.4
    Off Screen.............0.96............37.5
    Put Backs..............1.22............
    61.3

    So Siakim scores well considering the Raptors didn't surround
    him with shooters. I seem to recall Raps were only a few % pts higher
    than Rockets who were 30th (Raps were something like 27th).
    Was 0.90 or better in PPP in every category
    except spot ups.

    I feel Siakim will shine in Udoka's scheme in the stats I highlighted
    in transition, cutter, put backs and eventually PnR as Roll Man.

    Good chance he re-signs if we provide shooters around him due
    to Udoka and his scheme and playing next to
    Harden/Jalen Green / Jabari. We used Lin-Asik to bring in
    James Harden.......Siakim with Harden helps bring in vet talent.

    P.S. like Raps preparing for exit of VanVleet.....Blazers will try to replace
    exit of Jerami Grant. Both teams help each other.
     
    #40 ApacheWarrior, Jun 5, 2023
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2023
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