Right now the Rockets are tied for 7th worst record in the league with Dallas at 24-37. Atlanta, at 23-37, is 6th. Moving up (or down) to 6th almost doubles your chances for a top 3 pick. Based on the team standings right now: Best case scenario: Being selected as a top 3 pick in the lottery (obviously) Likely scenario: Pick between 7-9 Worst case scenario (though not likely): 10th to 11th pick
What is the Bill Fitch scenario. Get well soon Bullard and back in there. ------------------ We would like to get rookie Francis on the break for some easy scoops in the first quarter...
Well, maybe our alley-Cat had more than one feral feline last summer, and he'll be littered with flights back to Philadelphia and miss a bunch more games. That could help our chances. But then again, it might force alley-Cat to go into the free agent market this summer.
Atlanta's coming apart at the seams. They just haven't been competitive lately. I'm afraid there's a glass ceiling on that #6 slot for Houston. They're just not bad enough.
Can one of you post the number of balls per slot again? The way I remember it, the marginal value of losing doesn't drop until you sink to the 5th worst record. In other words, we're better off losing until we get to 5th-worst, and beyond that our probability of getting a top-3 pick doesn't increase enough to make losing worthwhile. My apologies to those of you who are puking as you read this. As I've said before, I'd rather lose a ton of games this year so we can pick high and not have to go through a season like this again.
Here, this thread should cover it all. <FONT SIZE="2" FACE="Verdana, Arial"><A HREF="http://bbs.clutchcity.net/ubb/Forum3/HTML/005764.html">Lottery Balls</A> </FONT>
I think the reason the ball counts are not a linear progression is because they must consider the fact your odds of being leapfrogged from below should not be significantly higher than your chances of upgrading yourself. Chances of being leapfrogged, thus ending up moving down a slot are: Your lottery chances minus the sum of the chances of all those below you....correct? If that is a negative number, then say you have the 6th slot, you're more likely to end up with the 7th pick than any lottery pick. Would someone mind working out the chances of getting a downgrade than an upgrade?
I've just to the conclusion that it really doesn't matter if we get the 7th instead of 6th pick. Most teams this high draft for need. Trust me, if you do your scouting homework, they are some really great players. Unfortunely one will be expose soon with the Martin injury: Stromile Swift. ------------------ The Mall Kid is Back! The best draft source yet, www.draftsource.net
RF34 when do you expect to have that up? ------------------ ~John~ Trade No One and Keep Rudy T. JohnyRocket's Fan Site
whenever someone cites an old thread I hear harps and then see dreamlike clouds with someone saying remember? remember in the background... just like in Mama's Family.
Just got off IR...day to day now...will let u guys know when I'm starting... ------------------ March Madness is Coming!!! The countdown has begun... The best draft source yet, www.draftsource.net
