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The Rockets have the youngest, least experienced group of players among contenders

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by meh, Jan 21, 2014.

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  1. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    With all the talk about the team's uneven play, I was thinking of possible reasons. Which prompted me to wonder just how young we still are, now that we've added Dwight. So assuming my Excel math ability isn't off, among the 8 teams in the NBA today with a non-negligible chance of winning the title, the Rockets are both the youngest and least experienced. The 8 teams being Pacers, Heat, Rockets, Thunder, Spurs, Clippers, Warriors, and Blazers. I didn't bother with running the numbers for Spurs and the Heat, but did so for the other 6 teams.

    First I looked at the weighted age of each team. Weighted so that a player playing more minutes are counted more than a guy who played a lot less. i.e. Brewer gets much less weight than Harden.

    My Formula for those who wish to double check:
    I did a weighted average-age of each team. Weighted by minutes. My formula was simply [Sum(Player age x Player minutes) / total minutes played]. I cut things off at 13 players, which meant that the numbers aren't totally perfect because the usage of player among teams. But I would say it's the difference is negligible.

    Age, youngest to oldest

    1. Rockets 25.8
    2. Thunder 25.9
    3. Blazers 26.0
    4. Warriors 26.1
    5. Pacers 27.2
    6. Clippers 27.9


    While the Rockets are the youngest team, the difference is obviously not much among the first 4. So I did another run with experience of teams, ignoring Indy and LA this time.

    Experience, least to most. Formula's the same except inserted exp instead of age

    1. Rockets 4.08
    2. Blazers 4.7
    3. Warriors 4.93
    4. Thunder 5.44

    For all our success, this team is still young and inexperienced. The fact that they're talented and have the 7th best record in the NBA doesn't change the fact that we still have a lot of kids. The starting lineup features 2 2nd year players and a 3rd year player. Think of this year as another year of development, and maybe your pessimism and hate for various Rockets thing may lessen.

    :)
     
    #1 meh, Jan 21, 2014
    10 people like this.
  2. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    Nothing against McHale, but a younger team needs a more experienced and established coach.
    Hope that we will continue to get better and become a stronger team.
     
    #2 saleem, Jan 21, 2014
  3. The Jabberwock

    The Jabberwock Member

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    Grrst thread and post!
    Worth a rep!
     
    #3 The Jabberwock, Jan 21, 2014
  4. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Good job, meh. Hopefully that softens the tone around here.
     
    #4 daywalker02, Jan 21, 2014
  5. MadMaxwell

    MadMaxwell Member

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    props….great analysis.
     
    #5 MadMaxwell, Jan 21, 2014
  6. FeaR

    FeaR Member

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    This is the most important quote of the post ... great thread.
     
    #6 FeaR, Jan 21, 2014
  7. FearTheBeardJH

    FearTheBeardJH Member

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    OKC 5 best players: Durant(25), Westbrook(25), Ibaka(24), Jackson(23), Lamb(21).

    No reason for excuses.
     
    #7 FearTheBeardJH, Jan 21, 2014
  8. shastarocket

    shastarocket Contributing Member

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    Good effort, but maybe you should weigh playoff experience differently than regular season?

    I was thinking that a multiplier would increase with each progressive round:
    Reg season - 1.0
    1st round - 1.2
    2nd round - 1.4
    3rd round - 1.7
    Finals - 2.0
     
    #8 shastarocket, Jan 21, 2014
  9. jsmee2000

    jsmee2000 Contributing Member

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    I think you should run the Heat and the Spurs for completeness. Both of these teams were in the Finals last year -- therefore, it might say something about the maturity required.
     
    #9 jsmee2000, Jan 21, 2014
  10. jsmee2000

    jsmee2000 Contributing Member

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    Sorry -- double post!
     
    #10 jsmee2000, Jan 21, 2014
  11. vinsensual

    vinsensual Member

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    Ugh the west will be stacked for years.
     
    #11 vinsensual, Jan 21, 2014
  12. baki

    baki Member

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    This team have exceeded expectations thanks to the recruiting and good player selections (as well as bad ones - Robinson). I actually think that last year's roster would have done about the same this year.
     
    #12 baki, Jan 21, 2014
  13. wfeebs

    wfeebs Member

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    No chance. We got lucky with injuries last year, if we had this years injuries with last years team we'd be much worse off.
     
    #13 wfeebs, Jan 21, 2014
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  14. Scolalist

    Scolalist Member

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    Spolestra disagrees. McHale is a hall of gamer and knows what it takes to win a championship. Rockets get healthy, build a stronger bench, Howard stays on track, Parsons and Jones continue to develop they will be deadly in the playoffs
     
    #14 Scolalist, Jan 21, 2014
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  15. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    McHale knows what it takes to win a championship, but he isn't a top quality coach. Miami has stars and veterans. I do believe we can make noise in the playoffs, but can McHale guide them to the top in the future?
    I am not convinced about that.
     
    #15 saleem, Jan 21, 2014
  16. 2016Champions

    2016Champions Member

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    This inexperience is the reason my name isn't 2014Champions
     
    #16 2016Champions, Jan 21, 2014
  17. TheFreak

    TheFreak Contributing Member

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    Another year of development while your highest-paid player is already past his prime?
     
    #17 TheFreak, Jan 21, 2014
  18. meadowlark

    meadowlark Member

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    Excellent analysis, meh. We are headed in the right direction.
     
    #18 meadowlark, Jan 21, 2014
  19. CCorn

    CCorn Member

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    McFail needs to make players more experienced.
     
    #19 CCorn, Jan 21, 2014
  20. Terry Teagle

    Terry Teagle Member

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    The Rockets are inexperienced so I don't expect them to contend seriously this year or even next. This being said, there are certain things that need to improve over the next two years, including experience, for the Rockets to contend.

    1. New or better coaching -- "Play harder" isn't going to cut it.
    2. Howard needs to become a defensive leader. He's getting by on talent alone but he needs to treat the defensive end as his house, like KG did. No easy baskets.
    3. Harden needs to understand how to better involve his teammates. ISOs on occasion are fine but Harden's ISOs disrupt the team flow. Durant puts up 25 shots a game but he always seems to be in the flow.
    4. Rockets need to figure out what to do with Jeremy Lin. He went from being the Rockets' #1 option to #2 to #3 and now he's behind Harden, Howard, Parsons, Jones, and maybe even Beverley. It's pretty clear to me that Lin won't be on the team in two years, whether he's traded or leaves as a FA.
    5. The Rockets need an athletic wing in the mold of Horry or Ariza who is a defensive beast and decent three point shooter.

    Ultimately, I don't think we're fixing #2 and #3 and that's why the "inexperience" excuse doesn't mean much to me. In two years, we won't have the inexperience excuse and we'll still be complaining about Harden ISOs and how Howard just doesn't have the killer instinct.
     
    #20 Terry Teagle, Jan 21, 2014
    1 person likes this.
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