I haven't posted on the Ming debate too often, so I wanted to share a couple of thoughts. First, I'm still in the Ming camp. 7'5 players with his athleticism, range, post moves, and shot blocking are once a generation players. But, I acknowledge there are risks, as there are with any top choice in this age. I understand the perspective of those wanting to trade the pick, and there have been several tempting offers. However, my main question to the BBS is this: What did you see as the primary weakness(es) of the Rockets last season? To me, it's rather obvious. Watch a tape of the Rockets play the Lakers, the Spurs, the Kings, or another dominant team. What's the main difference you see between a healthy Rockets team and a contender? To me, it's that a good shot for the Rockets is a midrange jumper or an open three pointer, while a good shot for one of these other teams is a low post move by a Tim Duncan or Shaquille O'Neal. The difference? These low post players often have over a 50% field goal percentage, and you can't consistently hit mid range jumpers at that rate. We need a post presence, on both ends of the floor. Badly. Is Yao Ming the definite answer? Not necessarily. But I do know that a 7'5 center with that athleticism will be a threatening presence in the lane for penetrators. I do know that whatever his upper body strength, Ming will likely be able to get off a jump hook in the lane, or a turnaround baseline. In other words, an often high percentage shot. If you take Lamar Odom, where do you go? It would be great if Eddie developed a lost post game and could become that answer, but I don't know if I'd risk my future on that. And no, I wouldn't risk it on an 8 or 12 pick either. These days, the draft is all about potential instead of sure thing results, and to pick a quality player at even 8 or 12 takes quite a bit of research and luck. It's not a sure thing. When's the last time a NBA team without MJ won a championship without a go-to option down low? Shaq, Tim Duncan, Hakeem, Kareem, McHale, etc... It's not to say Odom doesn't solve some concerns. Will he allow Stevie more freedom without the ball and to score? Sure. Will it possibly cut down turnovers, and aid the fast break? Possibly. But, to me, those are all secondary concerns. The primary need for this team to be a contender is a post presence down low, and if you don't get one now, when will you get one? This team with Lamar Odom becomes similar to the Minnesota Timberwolves... good enough to be in the postseason year after year, but a level away from contender status. And, in the playoffs, we won't have any good draft picks to turn it around. We also won't have any salary cap room to sign a max player after Stevie signs his extension. If you don't like Yao Ming, and don't think he'll be a star player, fine. Talk trades. But talk Rasheed Wallace, Elton Brand, Antonio McDyess... even Michael Olowokandi. Even if we have to package another player or pick to do it, so be it. Lamar Odom, even with the 8 and 12 picks, makes us a good team. However, because of the draft rules and the salary cap, it might keep us from being great. With Yao Ming or a current star post player, you have the potential to be great. Even if it doesn't work out, we should at the least try for greatness instead of settling for being good. For those of you that propose trading for Lamar Odom... where do you suggest we grab the last piece of the puzzle, a threat down low? Without high draft picks, without cap room, and with only Kenny Thomas, Kelvin Cato, and others as trade bait, it's a hard sell. I'm not totally closed on the idea of trading the pick... but I just don't think Odom is the answer. I'd love to hear some thoughts, though, especially from those in the Odom camp... maybe you have some solutions that I couldn't think of.
Dallas was the highest scoring team in the league without a low post presence. The Rockets do however need a low post player and I believe that Ming and Griffin can develop into them given some time.
Odom is a talented player but he's not what this team needs. He's not a strong shooter, inside or out. What's the obsession with this guy? Are you Odom backers looking for a playmaker to go with Francis? Honestly, Ming's the best option there. How many assists did Smith and Casell rack up for the Rockets in the championship years? Strong post play creates a ton of shots, especially once teams will have to double Yao. Yao will create a ton more high percentage opportunites for the team than Odom ever could thanks to his postplay, passing, rebounding, shotblocking and sweet stroke.
Couldn't agree more. Draft Ming because the Rockets need to take that chance. If it does not work, well, that's the way it goes. I do not want the Rockets to get Odom, this guy has not improved since his rookie season in 2000. He has drug issues, and like Cat said, Odom does not make the Rockets a championship contender, where as Ming possibly could. As for the people who want the rockets to get odom, I guess they don't care about winning a title. You have to be blind if you dont think the Rockets need help in the front court. I look at it this way. When the Jazz drafted Ostertag, his height was just enough to affect Hakeem in the playoffs. And I think Ming's height could do the same to Shaq in the future. O'neal will bully ming a lot, but he can't just lower that shoulder every time. Shaq is gonna sometimes have to shoot that baby hook shot, or the short fadeaway baseline jumper in games, and that is going to be difficult to do over Ming. But hopefully Ming will be better offensively than Ostertag. Lets face it, the Rockets will draft ming if Ming is able to play the whole season and playoffs. This can't be passed up.
Championships aren't awarded in the regular season. Dallas was exposed in the playoffs as seriously lacking in that area, because jump shots alone aren't going to beat the elite teams. The Nets tonight are another good example.
The biggest thing that scares me about Ming is the he isn't a post player. The guy is big, but he doesn't like playing down low. Now, we do get an advantage in the fact that he he draws his defender outside to open up the middle, but the zone defense will cancel that out. So what we have is a 7'5" small foward. I think the common misconception is that people like me are asking for the Rockets to trade Odom and the #1 straight up. Hell no that's not what I'm talking about, I want us to package the #1 so that we can get Odom and Olowokandi. That improves 2 positions as opposed to one. If Ming could develope a post game, then that would be great, but if he doesn't and he's a bust, what do we have to look forward to in next years draft?
I think the talk that he's not a post player is overdone. You can't shoot 72% from the field and not get some baskets down low. I'm not saying he's going to be the next Tim Duncan in the post, but with his size he's fully capable of getting a jump hook or a turnaround when we are struggling with the jumpers. I know it may not be what he wants to do every possession, but he has the ability, which is something we are lacking right now. If we could get Odom and Olowokandi both, it would be a decent deal, but I don't think Olowokandi could be traded since he is about to be a free agent. The main proposal I have issues with is the #1 for Odom, 8, and 12 or Maggette.
Well it's a moot point for me because I'm jumping on the "draft Ming if we can pull off a trade for Lewis" train.
The Ming question is not really about his ability. IMO, a goodly percentage of those who are opposed to drafting Ming actually have issues with the interference or threat of interference by People's Republic of China officials. That is my chief concern as well. I like to kid around, but the truth is I shall be greatly in the Rockets if they pass on our golden opportunity to regain our rightful place at the top.
I agree with The Cat. Odom is not the solution to our glaring need in the western conference: a post presence.
I think this is a good point, but this is a matter of opinion. We have 3 PF right now that are good shooters. Eddie has shown 3-point range at just 19, Mo has a sweet mid range shot, and KT is decent from midrange as well. Both of our guards, who account for a large part of our offense, have had 40% 3P% seasons, or very close to it. I think you'd have to keep that in mind if you were to hypothetically acquire Odom, and look at a guy like Borchardt in the draft to add a "shooter" at the 5. I think Odom's shooting woes can be compensated for by adding a utility shooter off the bench like an Eric Piatkowski type, or Matt Bullard. Casey Jacobsen comes to mind as a guy that fits that mold in the draft-these guys come fairly cheap, late first/2nd round. But, that's talking about a final touch type of piece. Also, Odom is just 22. He CAN get a lot better-he's roughly the same age as T-Mac, and look at the strides McGrady has made. Anyhow, if you want a post presence, and consider Kandi a decent one-what's the difference between saying "Yao helps us get Lewis" than "Odom/Mobley/Francis helps us get Kandi"? It may be a conspiracy, but a whole big agent angle could be created between Falk/LAC/HOU-If getting Odom to Houston helps make PT for Miles and/or Maggette, would that make him back off his must sign Kandi (for the max) or Brand won't be happy? Making a trade may be a good way to get that line of communications open.
JBIIRockets, I would like to congratulate you on your softball intramural championship at the U of Texas. I recently graduated from there and will not ever be allowed to win one of those, nor did I ever. Treasure that memory for you my friend are in an elite class like The Magoos. If you do not know who they are, you can look them up at Gregory gym. They have won many in the past.
The main problem I have with Odom is that if he's caught smoking pot one more time, he'll be suspended for a year by the league. That's a pretty big risk.
I tend to agree with you Cat...If we trade down, we can draft a 3 (perhaps Butler or Dunleavy or even Woods who has seemed to have fallen quite a bit in terms of his draft stock) and land the big man via trade. It's so much harder, especially in the West conf, for a big man to come in as a rookie and contribute.
Ok, I'm confused and need some clarification. I have seen it posted by guys I trust that the pot suspension would be for only 5 games. but then I see ppl post that it would be for a year. Well, which is it?? Most of the ones sayin a year for the next drug test failure were jrs, so I could overlook that...but fadeaway has always seemed to be pretty knowledgable... Does someone have a definitive answer on this issue?
it's 5 games. Every future offense is 5 games, not a year. The year long suspension is for more serious drugs like cocaine.
Yao has a severe lack of post-up moves. Did you read the reports on his "workout"? It said he would just settle for the jumper, and was having trouble with physical play. Did you watch the tapes on the net of him playing for Shangai? Of course you can make layups and finger rolls when you're playing against centers worse than Eric Montross...Yao is not a solution for an inside post presence...Everyone talks about his jumpshooting, running the floor well(I think he does for someone his height, but not for someone his position), passing great(where have you seen him pass great? I saw like a couple of outlet passes, and everyone is saying he passes great). Where do people say he has a great post-up game?
<i>it's 5 games. Every future offense is 5 games, not a year. </i> Actually, that isn't correct. If he fails another mar1juana test, then he gets suspended for an indefinite number of 5 games suspensions until the League Medical Director determines that he is in compliance with his treatment again. So, it could be five games, it could be longer. Here's the actual verbage: Article XXXIII, Secion 9 of the CBA (ii)Notwithstanding Section 11(b)(i)<b> above, any player who, after entering the mar1juana Program, fails to comply with his treatment program through (A) a pattern of behavior that demonstrates a mindful disregard for his treatment responsibilities, or (B) a positive test for mar1juana that is not clinically expected by the Medical Director, shall suffer the following penalties: </b> (1) if the player has not previously been fined $15,000 under Section 9(c) above or this Section 11(b)(ii), a fine of $15,000; (2) if the player has previously been fined $15,000 under Section 9(c) above or this Section 11(b)(ii), a suspension of five (5) games; or (3) <b>if the player has previously been suspended for five (5) games under Section 9(c) above or this Section 11(b)(ii), an indefinite number of five-game (5) suspensions that shall continue until, in the professional judgment of the Medical Director, the player resumes full compliance with his treatment program. </b> (iii) In addition to any consequence to the player under Section 11(b)(ii) above, any player who has entered the mar1juana Program but not the Drugs of Abuse Program, and tests positive for a Drug of Abuse in any test conducted by the Medical Director, shall enter Stage 1 of the Drugs of Abuse Program.
Thanks Aelliot! I'm glad that is finally settled. I have to say I'm for getting MING. However if for some reason things don’t workout I still don't want Odom. If we trade the pick we need to get a post player like Wallace, Brand or McDyess (assuming he passes a more rigorous physical than Rice). Your not going to find a player like that with the #8 and #12 pick unless you get really lucky. Please don’t tell me Kandi is the answer either. He has had 4 years to prove himself and he still sucks. At the very least we need a proven big man and a decent first round pick to package with #15 to move up and get one of the good SF's in the draft.
