The Plight of the Moderate

This guy's the congressman for the district next to mine and has pretty much been blasted by the liberal base (Nancy Pelosi) as well as the Republican base in congress (like Tom Delay). He can be fairly "flip-floppy" across party lines in his voting record. And as we all learned, being a flip-flopper is one of the worst things you can be, right next to kicking kittens and burning puppies.




http://www.ctnow.com/news/local/hc-shays1122.artnov22top,1,4867140.story?coll=hc-big-headlines-breaking

Insider On The Outside
November 22, 2004
By DAVID LIGHTMAN, Washington Bureau Chief

WASHINGTON -- Chris Shays these days seems like a congressman without a political anchor, a politician without a party.

He survived a close, ugly race to hold his 4th District seat in Connecticut, and returned to Washington to find his carefully arranged political world upended. Now, as he heads toward his 18th year in Congress, Shays has to carve a new path for himself to accommodate the new political landscape around him - and perhaps to survive a 2006 campaign that may have already begun.

Democrats he counted as friends turned on him during the campaign and are still snarling. He's no favorite of many Republicans either, a view he fed last week by publicly bucking powerful House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who holds life-or-death power over legislation and choice jobs.

Being an independent-minded moderate means a lonelier-than-ever life in Washington where collegiality matters.

"Chris Shays fits in the other Republican Party - a Republican Party that doesn't quite exist anymore," said political analyst Stuart Rothenberg.

Shays is not quite a lost soul, mind you, just a somewhat puzzled one.

"Elections don't suddenly take you 180 degrees the other way, but they can move you right or left," he said solemnly. The problem is, he's not sure yet where he's moving.

"I'm still sorting that out," Shays said as he sipped his Slim-Fast from a can during an interview in his Capitol office. "I'm not in a position to talk about what I've concluded from this election."

In some ways that comment is surprising because Shays is usually quick with an opinion, no matter whom it might rankle. But his circumspection is also characteristic, because this is a man who plots and explains his moves carefully.

He's done it his way forever, eschewing the go-along-to-get-along niceties and chest-thumping press conferences from the day he arrived in September 1987. As he prepared to get sworn in that day, he sat on his office couch gently, methodically telling reporters at length how devoted he was to balancing budgets. Shortly afterward, he took the outrageous step of complaining about committee assignments.

But there's also been a civility to Shays. He has stayed away from taking shots at Democrats, and for that matter menacing Republican skeptics, believing there is still honor in politics.

That candor and consistency - or what some see as bluntness, naivete and stubbornness - keep getting him in trouble, but also have defined him as principled. Shays' refusal to give up on campaign finance reform led to eventual passage of the landmark bill, though in the process he created a chasm with fierce foe DeLay and others that still has not healed.

Challenging GOP Leader

In fact, last week Shays seemed to be digging his version of a political Grand Canyon when he spoke out against a behind-closed-doors vote to allow DeLay, or anyone indicted by a state grand jury, to keep a leadership post.

Shays quoted the Bible to members - "they always like to quote Scripture," he explained - and then walked out to tell reporters how awful the vote was. A day later, he was still fuming.

"When I got home," he said, "my wife said, `This is the first action you guys took [since the election]?'"

"He pushes the envelope," Shays said of DeLay. "The things he does sometimes on money are not illegal, but close to being unethical."

Asked for details, Shays said, "The general stuff he does."

DeLay's staff did not respond to requests for comment, but have privately intimated such talk is akin to treason in an institution where the leaders can bury dissidents on boring committees and deny their districts money. Shays has already paid the price, literally, when the GOP in 1998 took $10 million from a $25 million pot of transportation money headed for his district after he branded the bill "a blatant attempt to buy votes."

When he spoke up further to oppose the action, they took away another $5 million.

Two years ago, he should have chaired the House Government Reform Committee but was denied the chance. He remains head of a key national security subcommittee and vice chairman of the budget committee - but he may lose that in the new session because he's reluctant to agree to the party line.

Shays has made it clear he will not be part of writing a 2006 document that does not take tough steps toward reducing the deficit, notably by curbing the cost of such programs as Medicare and Medicaid.

One of the areas where he does want more emphasis is stem cell research, decidedly not a priority of the Republican right wing, so chances are neither DeLay loyalists nor the White House will buy it.

But here's his new dilemma: In the past, Shays could count on other moderates and like-minded Democrats to side with him and boost his effectiveness.

Shays thinks that will happen, but the odds against it are lengthening. Moderates are a shrinking breed in the GOP, and because the party has its biggest House majority since 1947, they have less influence. Shays disputes that assertion, listing fellow Republicans ready to march with him on a variety of issues.

More independent analysts disagreed.

"Republicans don't count on the moderates. If they went away, the party probably wouldn't mind that much," said Stan Collender, managing director at Financial Dynamics, a Washington consulting firm.

At the same time, Democrats have made Shays a prime 2006 target.

"Chris is vulnerable," said Rep. Robert T. Matsui, D-Calif., Democratic Congressional Campaign chairman. "People are going to watch his voting record."

If it seems to be falling too much in line with the president, who lost Connecticut by more than 10 percentage points, Democrats will pounce. And if it drifts too far from the GOP, Shays will be painted as a toothless outcast.

Chill From Democrats

Shays is clearly hurt by the sudden chill from the Democratic side. While he never had much in common with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, their relations were cordial. At least that was true until she campaigned for his opponent in the election and last week when she told the national press corps he was a meek grandstander.

"She said I was brain dead," Shays said, clearly sad about her attitude. Pelosi called Shays "a rubber-stamp-for-the-radical-right-wing, check-your-brain-at-the-door congressperson" and "an enabler for DeLay."

She laughed Friday when asked if such remarks had ruined her relationship with Shays and other centrists.

"Working with Chris Shays," Pelosi said, "is not something I spend a lot of time thinking about." She called his claims of moderation a "masquerade," using the DeLay rules voice vote instead of a roll call to prove her point.

"He grandstands outside by saying he doesn't approve of the rules change," Pelosi said. "He could have with one word called for a [roll call] vote ... but instead he chose to meekly voice his position instead of standing up to the task and asking for a vote."

Shays actually spoke twice - only three others spoke at all - and said Friday he wished he had sought a secret ballot vote, particularly after DeLay boasted how overwhelming his support had been.

"I thought I had done my job at the time. Things happen quickly," Shays explained. "We might have gotten 50 votes. We might have gotten 80 votes."

This may be the era of the slashing politician, but it is not Shays' style. He's upset, but as always, he has a carefully planned path.

There will be no run for governor or the Senate in 2006.

"I agree with Joe [Lieberman] on too many issues," he said, and he's not about to challenge Gov. M. Jodi Rell.

Any thoughts of switching to the Democratic Party are now out: "I wouldn't want to be part of the party of Nancy Pelosi," he said.

He plans to run for Congress again in 2006. He will keep up his support and scrutiny of the Bush administration's Iraq plan, perhaps making another visit there soon on top of the six he has already made. He will try to find like-minded Republicans on trade and economic issues, which is not as difficult as building coalitions elsewhere.

There will be no new Chris Shays, though there may be a slightly different Chris Shays.

Of course, a too-different Shays could be a political liability. Then again, so could the old Shays.

As Rothenberg put it, "He's in an increasingly difficult position."