The Optimism Thread

For clear and legitimate reasons, there is a lot of pessimism about the nearby playoffs. After the game, like most of us, I was really mad and not thinking things through of course. But there are some reasons to put aside the concerns.

1) Record against winning teams/playoff teams: (from ESPN schedule)
The Patriots have beaten the Broncos, the Colts, and the Texans: 3 winning teams and 3 playoff teams.
The Broncos have beaten the Ravens and the Bengals: 2 winning teams and 2 playoff teams.
The Bengals have beaten the Redskins, the Giants, and the Ravens* (both teams resting players, so asterisk by this game): 3 winning teams and 2 playoff teams.
The Ravens have beaten the Bengals, the Patriots, and the Giants: 3 winning teams and 2 playoff teams.
The Colts have beaten the Vikings, the Packers, and the Texans: 3 winning teams and 3 playoff teams.
The Texans have beaten the Broncos, the Ravens, the Bears, and the Colts: 4 winning teams and 3 playoff teams.
The low strength of schedule for the Texans is misleading: they have beaten more teams with winning records and playoff teams than anybody else in the AFC playoffs. Combine with the fact that the losses have been to four playoff teams, the Texans have played top notch competition. The reason their strength of schedule is low is because of the Jaguars with their 2-14 record. Denver is on a winning streak, but their only significant win is Baltimore, whom the Texans dominated. The Texans have shown they can beat the top competition and that potential does not just disappear.

2) Special teams: We have been terrible on special teams. But I am sure Donnie Jones will continue punting excellently and Shayne Graham has proven he can hit the 50 yarder sometimes. What we are sure of is that he will not miss below 40 yards, which is a nice reassurance that Baltimore wishes they had last year, or the Eagles two years ago with Akers. Considering they gave up a touchdown return yesterday, it is doubtful they give up one during the playoffs. But for every touchdown return, there is also a blocked punt by Bryan Braman. I would not be surprised if he makes a play on special teams, or just our special teams make a play in general. It is unlikely our special teams give the other team points directly. It is really hard to find optimism with this group: Marciano needs to go after the season.

3) Defence: I am here to say that our defence will show improvement in the playoffs. First off, we have JJ Watt, who changes games and he is just making plays that stops drives. There would be no reason for him to have a drop-off. Maybe he will intercept Dalton at the LOS again. In the playoffs, the key is to have a good pass defence, obviously going up against Dalton, Brady, and Manning. Our defensive line is set. But our defence has actually pretty good against the Colts and Vikings. The defence gave up 21 points to the Colts. Take out that Quintin Demps is a dumb###, its 14 (which I feel like he will be benched because of that play). The Colts also had much better field position due to turnovers. Same could be said about the Vikings. People have not noticed, but JJoe and Kareem Jackson are playoff ready. They have been on near lockdown the past couple games and JJoe has shaken off the injuries and turning back into his all-pro self. In addition, due to injuries, Barrett Rudd is playing, and from what I have seen in his playing time, he has executed some excellent pass defence (Detroit, Vikings, and Colts games). Our safety play has struggled, but has improved the last two games as well, coinciding with our defensive improvement. The major weak point is Brandon Harris and his 50 pass interference penalties per game and Bradie James' coverage skills. Also, having Brooks Reed back will help. What we are due for on defence are turnovers: we can and have forced a lot of them and are due for some more after this recent slump of them.

4) Offense: It is rare to see Shaub play two bad games in a row, can you name any time in the past two/three years he played two bad games in a row? He is due for a bounce back because he is still a top 10 quarterback in the league. AJ is playing great and that helps a huge amount. We need to see more out of OD, but our passing game improves as Devier Posey improves. From an article on BRB (http://www.battleredblog.com/2012/12/27/3809800/the-film-room-warning-may-cause-heart-palpitations) is a film breakdown on how Posey actually played well against the Colts, got a lot of separation, and ran good routes. This is huge, as he has been playing WR2 in front of Walter actually, and can bring another element into our passing game. If the writer sees this on the film, you bet Shaub does as well. Our O-line has played terrible recently, which has stalled the whole offence. This includes Duane Brown and Chris Myers, whom have both given up sacks and missed run-blocking assignments. I find it hard to believe two legitimate pro-bowl line man will continue sucking when they have been so good for so long. For our offence to flourish, we need to get James Casey and Arian Foster more involved in the passing game. Our run game stalls in the red-zone: it has for the past four games, and it is, quite frankly, predictable. Run the play-action pass to Foster/Casey and our redzone deficiencies will turn around.

I might be missing a couple ideas, and might have some mistakes in this post, but feel free to challenge, criticize, or compliment.

tl;dr Special teams is not all terrible, the defence has actually improved, the offence will find rhythm, and the Texans have beaten the most winning/playoff teams among all AFC playoff teams.

 

Last year was last year: we will be missing Mccain, Cushing, and maybe Reed, Sharpton, and Dobbins. As I said, I don't expect much of a drop off with Rudd because he has played pass defence well. The only key player is Cushing, which will hurt if we play the Patriots because of Gronk and Hernandez.

 

Eli Manning was not considered elite until he won two superbowls. Before then, he was considered a decent quarterback kind of like Shaub is now. The Giants are a good example of a team who TWICE fully put it together once playoffs started after the two inconsistent regular seasons. The Texans can do the same. Who did Eli beat twice in the superbowl? Brady. It can be done.

 

So friendly. Care to say why we should lose to the Bengals, who have only been able to beat one playoff team that had its starters playing?

 

And how is that working for you?

 

Our offence has played at a high level nearly all season, and our defence has already started turning around. To say the texans this year have not shown resilience like last year before the playoffs started is not a correct statement. Most of the resilience of last year was shown in the playoffs, from holding the Ravens on four downs, crushing Cincy, etc.

 

Yes, fully aware of the "next man up" mantra, but they earned their stripes in the playoffs: it was only a matter of time before we clinched that crappy division. So you are thinking negatively of a texans team this year that has not had as many injuries, therefore a better record, but less resilience because of that? The resilience will be found in the playoffs like it always should be for contenting teams. Of course we are not the frontrunner, but it is refreshing to be the underdog now, and honestly, I think people like the Patriots will overlook us now.

So what exactly looked bad against the Colts? The special teams, Demps, and offensive penalties. You know what can be fixed easily? Two of the three. And special teams for all NFL teams RARELY give up touchdowns in consecutive weeks. Lets not forget about Bryan Braman: he is a special teams playmaker.