Before the start of every year that Yao has been in the league, the assumption has been that "this is the year that he completely blows up and takes the league over." Before his rookie year, there were some overzealous fans who thought he would immediately dominate but most of us thought any contribution from the supposed "long term project" would be a bonus. I think we were all pleasantly surprised in that first year when he showed flashes of greatness and we attributed his shortcomings to the inabilities of our Dumb&Dumber backcourt and Yao's lack of strength/experience. All of us, especially the national media, expected him to break loose in a big way for his 2nd year due to Van Gundy's assertion that he would be the #1 option and that he would have a training camp under his belt. Didn't quite work out that way. His statistics improved but he was still very frustrating at times and certainly did not take the leap to superstardom that many expected. It must have been Francis and Mobley. Fast forward to the summer, with McGrady in and Francis out, and Yao looking much bigger, last year was the year he would finally blow up. After all, most greats leap to superstardom in their 3rd years and McGrady would make an effort to get Yao the ball. Unfortunately, while his scoring average went up, in some ways Yao was more frustrating than ever. He would dominate Amare Stoudemire one night, and then have his lunch money stolen by Nenad freaking Kristic. I will never forget the night when Zaza Pecculia ripped the ball out of his hands - perhaps one of my darkest memories as a Rockets fan. I refuse to be fooled again. I don't know what to think but I'm so tempted. For one, Yao looks bigger and better than ever, and this is the first offseason in his career in which he has gotten rest. More importantly are the following two developments: the addition of Stromile Swift should help keep Yao out of foul trouble and should keep him from having to chase down guards. Most importantly though is the fact that they know how to use him. They started out last year with Yao as the initiator of the offense ala Hakeem or any other great post player. The problem was that Yao was too slow, couldn't get position, and was too poor a post passer so this plan failed miserably. The team really took off when he became the end result of a play esp. the pick 'n roll. When he was able to get the ball right underneath the hoop at the end of the play, he was easily the most unguardable player in the league. The good news is that with the pick 'n roll that they just started to scratch the surface of in the playoffs last year, he was getting there with ease. So should I allow myself to be fooled again? The national media seems to have given up the hopes of Yao ever taking the giant leap. I so badly want to think he'll atleast improve this year but my instinct tells me not to get my hopes up. However, the pick 'n roll development as the end of last year is HUGE and cannot be underestimated. They have found a way to get him in single coverage right underneath the hoop. It doesn't get any easier than that. Will foul trouble, fatigue, and a soft personality hold him back once again? The good news is that they have built a team that can compete for a championship with Yao playing just as he is. So don't factor that into your answer - that "well, we'll be fine because we don't need him to be great." This is about Yao only. How good will he be next year?
I expect Yao to have his best season yet. Toward the end of the playoffs series against the Mavs, Yao played so much more aggressively. It seemed like the light was starting to come on and he realized what he could do when he played with more passion.
I for one am not expecting Yao's skills to improve at all this season. While he indeed got some rest this offseason, it doesn't look like he spent much time practicing with decent competition. Therefore, I think his per-minute averages will be the same as last year. I think with the addition of Swift and the continued shot-blocking tutelage from Mutombo, he'll manage to stay out of foul trouble. Moreover, he's supposedly been working on his conditioning. If he gets at least 35 minutes every game, I'm expecting around 21 and 9 from the big fella.
You make good and valid points. Unfortunately I have to agree with most you say. Personally, I don't expect Yao to just to superstardom anytime soon. Not necescarily because he can't, but because he's not being forced to. Everyone seems to think that he is capable of owning anyone on any night, but is just too soft/nice to do so, and they're right. Now that he has a year with TMac and company under his belt and a summer of rest (if that's what you want to call it), I do expect to see an improvement in his game, but not a drastic one. I think his scoring could go up 3-4, but most likely 1-2. With Swift next to him and more rest, hopefully he'll be able to stay on the floor longer. If that happens I expect all of his stats to go up except maybe rebounding, and expect to see more presence on defense. Even though he's only taking baby steps, as long as he's improving I'm not one to complain. Pugs
Why can't i vote for 19 points? so now i will vote for 20 points but i think he will get a little bit less.
Nice post, thacabbage. I'm usually one of the overly optimistic Yao fans, so I'll try to control myself. I really think he'll average 20 and 9. I would like to think that his blocks would go up... he does look damn good in the photos from China. What's going to happen if we can keep Yao and Swift on the floor for 35 minutes every night? (please, god!) What the hell will opponents do? Just stay out of the paint altogether? Yao will continue to be inconsistent, but with the addition of Swift and Anderson, and if everyone else stays healthy as well, Yao should be given room to do some serious damage. I'm hoping that 20 a game looks low at the end of the season. Yao is perfectly capable of scoring 20 and more every night, if he can stay on the floor. I think he's realized that, and he's finally becoming aware of what an offseason can do for him. Yao is ready to bump his game up a notch. So are the Rockets.
I dont expect a big surge in Yao's production this year - maybe 2pts and 1 rebound avg increases. What with Mc Grady and the added punch from the off season additions it should not be neccessary. However, I do expect/hope to see better consistency, fewer fouls and more minutes from him.
Assuming his stamina improves, and the refs let him play I think he'll have his first 20/10 season, and be just shy of averaging 2 blocks a game.
He doesn't have to have a 20plus scoring average. The most important thing is when he's double-teamed that he makes the right pass and the recipient of the ball able to finish the play. Instead, 10 points average coming from offensive rebounds, that's something that he needs to capitalize on because of his size. If he can't do that, he's good as moochie..
I suspect that Yao will find many of the same challenges he has had so far in his career will continue to be there. Opponents will continue to gear their gameplan to stop or slow him down and he will continue to be hounded by the refs until he decides that enough is enough and gets a few technical fouls by getting in the refs faces. However, the addition of SS will definitely take some pressure off of him, especially defensively. He should get 3-5 minutes per game more just because he will not be forced to chase guards all over creation (one of the tasks I think JVG will put on SS) and as such, will not pick up as many silly fouls and will have a bit more energy to put out on the offensive end. The addition of DA should also help to spread the floor out so that Yao can get more room to work with when fighting for position and making his moves. DA in addition to McGrady, a healthy DW, and MJ should provide some much needed breathing room for Yao in the post. But the biggest thing that I see that could help Yao improve his output is the increasing familiarity and chemistry he was developing with TMac over the end of the regular season and the playoffs. The PnR was deadly and with the added options that SS and DA bring to the table, Yao should have a lot more room to operate. The one thing that I would do were I TMac is get Yao to stand up for himself with the refs. The only reason they continue to abuse him is because he won't get up in their faces and protest a bad call vociferously. Hakeem was not profane, but got technicals when he needed to make a point to the zebras. If Yao is able to do that, he could explode for 25+ PPG. However, since I really don't see that happening, I voted for 23 PPG.
I went with 22ppg just because I expect him to play more minutes, although I don't really care that much if his ppg increases at all. There are too many other things he can improve in that will make us a better team: rebounds, blocks, assists. After Yao's first season I thought he was one of the best passers among big men in the NBA. The last 2 he looks like he doesn't know what to do with the ball if he can't shoot. And I absolutely don't understand it.
Yao's passing out of a double-team is a work-in-progress. But his interior passing is very good (just about all his great passes in his rookie year was to cutters like Mobes, Moochie and Stevie and not spot up shooters). I expect his assists to shoot up with the addition of an athletic finisher like Stro, and (hopefully) a cutter/slasher like DA. The days of Yao tossing a sweet pass, only to have Howard, Bowen and even Motay get it shoved back in their faces, are over.
I'm setting the bar at 22ppg / 12rbs. I remember reading in another post where Yao is going to make it a point to be at training camp from the start so that alone will improve his effectiveness with the team. He has taken steps this summer to put the work in as far as conditioning and strength training and putting off the Chinese play as much as possible, this will only help his development. His passing skills are still very good and if you think hard about last year he had several nice no look passes in the paint when the other team collapsed on him. He does need to get tougher down low and I think a light bulb went off for him towards the end of last year in this regard. I saw a bit of anger in him when that thug from Seatle was pushing him around and a few other times throughout the year where you could see he was getting real tired of taking that crap from opposing teams. And when Josh Howard pushed him down from behind he was visibly angered and jumped up and was ready to pimp slap him (wish he would have...hehe) but our enforcer Bob Sura took care of business with the body slam. His biggest adjustment over the past year or two (other then the player shuffling) was the change to the defensive play. Teams are allowed to double and triple him and are abusing this by slapping him when they do and the stinkin' refs don't seem to think thats a problem unless Yao does it to the opposing teams players. Someone mentioned earlier in this thread the growing chemistry between Yao and T-Mac and I expect that to continue in camp and the coming season, no reason to think otherwise. Couple all this with T-Mac being the floor leader and oh baby lets get it on..... I think I just got wood..... GO ROCKETS!!!
Yao is great at passing to slashers/cutters, which is the hardest type of pass. Unfortunately, no one has been cutting and slashing for the last 2 years. They've been spotting up behind the 3pt line.
