The not so optimistic pick of 2021 draft

Aren’t we suffering enough already?

 

Top 4 protected right?
So If we are in the top three .. . . let's say the TOP 1
Then Four people would have jump us . . .who are not in the top three for us to to lose it . . not possible
So If we are #2 - three people would have to jump us
If we are #4 . . .then any jumpers cause us to lose

I think we will be fine.
How many times have 3 people jumped to the front?

2022 looks good: 2022 Own + DET pick if outside top 16* + POR pick if outside top 14* + BKN pick + MIL pick

https://spacecityscoop.com/2021/02/08/understanding-the-houston-rockets-2021-draft/



Rocket River

 

Did we jump a couple of spot in the lottery to get Yao? I remember Boston tanked and was suppose to be the number one but the lottery dycked them and they ended up with the 5thbpick. The media and fanbase up there were livid: they thought they were gettting KD or Oden

 

I know it happens. . . but not enough to push the #1 guy out of the top 4
I would be interested to see how many times any of the Top 3 worse records . .. ended up picking 5th or higher
I suspect that it is not a high number. Right?
That being the case - We keep our pick . . if we stay in the bottom 3 in the league
Isn't this draft deep?
The 4th pick should be pretty good right

Rocket River

 

happens every year
just last season Cleveland had the second worst record but got pushed out the top 3 to the 5th selection

the Hawks had the 4th worst recordand got bumped to the 6th selection

Detroit had the 5th record and ended up with 7th selection


I still have faith

 

Rocket River

 

Ayo! Ayo! Ayo Dosunmu is our late pick fairytale guy if the top 4 doesn't work out.

The important thing to remember is that the 5th - 8th pick are frequently duds. Maybe our trade back forces us to make a smarter choice and that choice just might be Mr. Batman Dosunmu himself!

 

Don't get too scared, but there is pretty much no data for your question.

Before 2019, the worst team could pick no worse than 4th.
With the rule changes... uh oh!

Finishing worst doesn't give much difference in odds to picks for 3rd worst.
http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

 

iono why brehs are so depressed. we can still bounce back and get the 9th seed! wood, kjp, and deepo on the rise!

 

You're thinking about how lottery probabilities were in the distant past. The current format has only been around for 2 or 3 years.

All you have to think about is that :

1) If the Rockets have one of the three-worst records, there's a 52% they'll keep their pick. (so it's basically a coin-flip)
2) If the Rockets have the 4th-worst record, there's a 48% chance they'll keep their pick. (so again... it's still basically a coin-flip)
3) If they succeed with either of the 2 scenarios above, they'll pick in the top 4, but their probability of getting any of those 4 picks is about the same (so the probability of getting the 1st or the 4th pick would be about the same).

Another way to look at it is that the worst record has over 3x the chance of getting the 5th pick in the draft than they do the 1st pick and 4x the chance of getting the 5th pick than they do the 4th pick.

It's the NBA's way of saying "if you want to tank for the best or second best player, go ahead, but your chances aren't all that great".

 

There will be some solid players in the early 20’s when we pick if we have to trade with Miami. Just not ‘sure things’ so scouting and evaluation will be paramount. It should be a young interesting team to watch next year either way.

 

I simmed tankathon one time this morning and we got #1 so I left the site. I hate when it takes like 5x to just keep our pick.

 

Isiah Jackson.

I say that as one who championed drafting Immanuel Quickley last summer...

Guy will be an all-star one day, by virtue of his defensive prowess.

 

On the simulated mode. Whenever, we lose the pick; we end up with Kai Jones at #20. Then Daishen Nix at 22.

I keep hitting the button; the good scenarios are usually Evan Mobley or Jalen Suggs. Took lot of tries to finally get Cade at #1. I'm also not very lucky; so it's a good thing I'm not the one choosing the lottery balls.

Side rant:

Jalen Suggs
Jalen Green
Jalen Johnson

. Jalen Rose wasn't kidding about this name being popular.

 

alright and i've thought about it. you have to be so BAD that the league has no choice but to give you a top pick because your badness is hurting the leagues value.

 

FOLKS the Iron law of probability states that we are either DUE or DOOMED - this is what Aron Baynes discovered.

 

Isn’t the lottery done behind closed doors. If so I think we have some “good well” with the league because of the Harden trade.