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The myth that all Clinton supporters would support Obama

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by The Cat, Mar 6, 2008.

  1. The Cat

    The Cat Member

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    I know we've been through this in other threads, but this deserves a thread of its own, especially after the comments of "millions" of Obama supporters not supporting Clinton while "about 3" Clinton supporters wouldn't support Obama. Here are actual numbers, not message board speculation:

    http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=1254

    Am I saying this is a reason to support Clinton? No, I'm not. What I'm saying is that it's an absolute myth that if Obama doesn't win, his supporters will go run from the system and/or vote McCain at a greater rate than what Clinton supporters would do in the reverse scenario. That might be what some of you would do, and that's fine -- but don't make declarative statements about the majority of voters doing the same. The numbers don't support that.

    (For the record, I am certainly not one of these people -- I am perfectly fine with either candidate and will vote for the winner regardless.)
     
  2. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    I'm surprised at these numbers, frankly.

    Maybe because I make up the 10%.
     
  3. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    obama wins on polls against mccain vs hillary vs. mccain. so this doesn't matter in that regard. you have people who vote for obama who won't vote for hillary and vice versa.
     
  4. The Cat

    The Cat Member

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    I think the distinction is in the African American Obama supporters. From the numbers I've seen, black voters don't hate Clinton -- there's still an admiration there for the job Bill did. They simply identify with Obama a little bit more. But if he somehow were to lose (and provided nothing crazy happens), I don't think they would have a problem at all backing Clinton.

    Now, some of the young voters and upper class whites that support Obama? I think that's a majority of the 10 percent. I could see some of those refusing to back Hillary under almost any circumstance. But I think a lot of analysts make the assumption that black voters share the same logic, and I don't think that's the case. The African American community still likes the Clintons, and would be fine with Hillary as the president. They just like Obama a little more.
     
  5. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    The General election is 7 months away. 7 months ago, Rudy Giuliani and Hillary were dominating the polls.

    What's your point again?

    Furthermore, those are nation-wide polls, not state-by-state polls, where the election is decided. Check the battleground states, pgabs. oopsie

    What's your point again?
     
  6. Zion

    Zion Member

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    It seems the longer this goes on the more the animosity and hate grows between the two groups.

    Here we go again;Democrats finding a new way to lose the general election. :(
     
  7. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    my point is that romney is gone and all you have to do is talk about how things maybe in 7 months, I'm talking about how they are now. romney gone, after saying he would bring back jobs to michigan. obama is winning in polls against hillary in general election and has been since the before the first primary.
     
  8. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    the democrats, howard dean and prominent senators and govenors need to get together in the next month and decide who to back. there is an article in the houston that is already talking about neither can win the number of delegates to win the nomination so its going to the convention
     
  9. Major

    Major Member

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    You've already been told this before, but in virtually every battleground state, Obama outperforms Clinton head-to-head against McCain, often by very large margins. Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, etc. In Penn and Florida, they perform similarly. Ohio was the only place Clinton had any advantage. Even in NY, Obama outperformed her by a good margin.

    oopsie.
     
  10. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    In a couple of threads, I've been making the argument that Obama should make a deal with Clinton, and put her on the ticket as the VP (if she would accept). That would solve many problems going into the election, IMO.



    Impeach Bush.
     
  11. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    hillaroid is so toxic that many republicans and independents, who otherwise may have chosen obama, would definitely vote mccain if ~it~ was put on the ticket as VP
     
  12. The Cat

    The Cat Member

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    Show. Me. The. Numbers.

    10 percent of Obama's supporters say they would definitely vote for McCain if Clinton is the nominee. 25 percent of Clinton's supporters say they would definitely vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee. It seems Obama is every bit as toxic -- if not more -- than Clinton.
     
  13. bnb

    bnb Member

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    The 25% number surprises me. Unless you're including the TJ's and Texx's as Clinton supporters.
     
  14. ymc

    ymc Member

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    This surprises me as well. If that's the case, then Obama should consider Hillary as his running mate.
     
  15. ymc

    ymc Member

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    It will be ok if they join forces. But it appears to me that while Hillary is ok with this idea, Obama is not.
     
  16. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    When the dust settles the election will come down to:


    "Anyone but a republican"

    DD
     
  17. ymc

    ymc Member

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    Sounds like a reasonable analysis. I agree.
     
  18. Major

    Major Member

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    At the end of the day, though, from your link:

    [​IMG]

    The shift to Obama from Independents/GOPers is more than the shift of Dems to McCain. And I suspect that once McCain is hammered for 3 months as being "same as Bush", more Dems will flip back. Ultimately, Dems are going to be more reliable to vote Dem than Ind/GOPers will be. The swing voters are always the ones in the middle.
     
  19. London'sBurning

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    I think if Hillary was nominated as the leading candidate that I wouldn't vote for her or McCain. I'm tired of seeing nearly two decades of Bush and Clinton administration. What will happen next? Jeb Bush runs for nomination? Then Chelsea? I just want some diversity but I can't stand McCain right now either so I'd prefer not to vote at all.
     
  20. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    if hillary doesn't come out strong against ending the war, I'm voting against her if she's the nominee. I would rather have mccain and a war than hillary and a war. its the number one issue on my list.
     

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