The myth of the third scorer

It's not necessarily a 3rd scorer, it's just a 3rd guy that can get his own shot. We don't have that. Everyone on this team relies on Yao and McGrady to get their points. Even with a healthy McGrady, there will be games when Yao is either in foul trouble or just plain ineffective due to the tempo. You are simply putting too much burden on McGrady's shoulders to carry the entire offense in those instances.

 

I don't think it's a myth as much as you are implying. Raw scoring averages are misleading.

We need consistent options on the floor to help maintain spacing. Keep defenses honest and provide a spark when Tmac/Yao or both are sitting on the bench.

Last year, we may have had similar scoring avg's from a year previous, but overall field goal percentages were down. Teams didn't respect Rafer and crew and therefore doubled Yao religiously.

Now a third star may not be necessary, but we do need consistency from our role players.

 

Qyntel Woods is still available.

 

there is a reason (or reasons) for that

 

A couple problems with this comparison.

First, you should compare per-minute scoring, as well as scoring efficiency, instead of just looking at per-game scoring. Mike James scored nearly 20 points per 40 minutes of action, and he did it at a high scoring efficiency for us.

Secondly, you need to consider that Tracy and Yao were very healthy in 2005 compared to 2006. As a result, the role players had to score more last season, so their scoring ability (ignoring efficiency) is inflated.

 

I'd rather see Novak get 11 and Snyder 6, because Novak most probably shoots a significantly higher % than Snyder.

 

Third scorers or guys that are capable of putting the ball in the basket is a needed luxury. Case in point:

Antoine Walker
Josh Howard
Raja Bell
Boris Diaw
Tony Parker
Antonio Daniels

 

a third option to run the second unit would be great. so if mcgrady and yao are out, there is still someone on the team who can run the show and score...

ala MIKE JAMES.

team balance is more important obviously, but right now JVG can't allow tmac and yao to have a breather at the same time. it's a tough burden to put on yao and tmac.

sura could "be" this 3rd option if he plays like he did a few years ago, but i don't think anyone is counting on that.

 

excellent post, I was gonna ask the threadstarter to compare the rockets to teams that have advanced. comparing them to the 04-05 team, while they had good season, really doesn't prove anything.

 

I completely agree with those saying that you must track the points per minute plays (not quite as important), and FG % (definitely important).

But another thing I think is really important is WHEN they score. Yeah, so you may have a couple guys that can average right around double digits. However, how many of those guys can you count on late in the game? When you look at FG% and (as mentioned above) who can create their own shot, and then combine that with who can actually handle the pressure in the 4th quater and still make their shot, that's a big difference.

 

Replace Kirk Snyder with Luther. Luther is not gonna decrease in ppg this year.

 

I agree we don't need a third scorer, we need a team where every player on the court can put the ball in the basket, when called upon to do so!!
If this is the case every team will respect the Rockets and we will never see Yao Ming guarded by three players again.

 

yea, and so is timmy breaux.

 

The Rockets needing a 3rd scorer in the backcourt is no myth. It is a fact! In tight games when teams clamp down on Tracy and Yao, we need a player that can step up and take advantage. On days when one of our stars is off, the 3rd scorer could fill in the gap.

After Dirk and Jason Terry, the Mavs have Josh Howard. The Spurs have TD, TP & Manu. A 3rd option would go a long way towards making us a championship level team. Some of us hoped Mike James would take this role.

Shane Battier may be a good enough substitute. He doesn't score much but brings other intangibles. But I still think our backcourt is a huge weakness unless somebody plays a whole lot better than last year. My hopes aren't up.

 

You can argue all you want about stats, but if you have players who play regulary that have scoring averages that add-up to 101 points a game, then offense will not be our problem. It doesn't matter if you have 1 scoring option, 2 scoring options or 3 scoring options...(unless injuries are a factor).

That said, I think the point people are trying to make is that your per-game scoring averages are likely inflated.

Some things to consider in getting those averages down:

1. Yao played like a beast for a month or so last year and his average is still only at 22.3 ppg. I hope as much as anyone he can keep this up, but we just don't know, nor do we know if he will still be as effective when playing with a healthy T-Mac. Call Yao 20 ppg.

2. Shane Battier has only scored over 11 ppg once in his career. It is completely moronic to assume he will score more just because he is with the Rockets. When was the last time that happened for someone joining our team? Call Shane 10 ppg.

3. Kirk Snyder - See point #2 above. He averaged 8.0 ppg last year. Again, I hope he can do more, play more and play more efficiently with us, but to be conservative/realistic, call Snyder 8 ppg.

4. Steve Novak is a 2nd round pick who has yet to play a game in the NBA. Last year, Luther probably overachieved and got way more minutes than he otherwise would have, and scored close to 9 ppg. If healthy, will Novak get the minutes. Let's call Novak 3 ppg.

So now you have:

Tracy McGrady 24
Yao Ming 20
Shane Battier 10
Kirk Snyder 8
Rafer Alston 10
Juwan Howard 8
Luther Head 7
Steve Novak 3

Which = 90 ppg. And now you do have problems. Of course, we haven't included V-Span, Chuck Hayes, JLIII and potential for Luther to put up closer to his 9 ppg in his rookie year than the 7 you projected.

Piggy-backing on what others have said, if healthy, when Yao and T-Mac are on the floor together, there shouldn't be any problems on offense. It's when one or both are off the court that having a dependable third scorer helps considerably.

 

So you're saying we should start Ryan Bowen... Oh wait never mind you said "put the ball in the basket, when called upon to do so" I thought you said "hold the ball basket while the players are playing." My bad...

 

Who was the third guy who could get his own shot on the first championship team? Cassell? Vernon? Thorpe? I don't even know who was the second...

 

I agree with Agent94, sorry cabbage.

The Oneal/Bryant Laker's squads didn't have a 3rd scorer by and large (I think Rice was on the 1st team, but he was regulated to a catch and shoot player by then). The best Lakers team, the middle one, always went through Shaq or Kobe, always. Also, the Spurs 1st and 2nd titles didn't have much of third scorers.

What these teams has were players who were OK to excellent defensively and whom had consistent and effective spots on the floor (even if they had little 1 on 1 game or creativity)--guys like Horry, Fisher, Fox, Harper, Avery J, and Elie.

It would have been nice to have a 3rd scorer, but that is a luxury, 95% of teams don't have two scorers/creators like Tmac and Yao. What is most needed are good all around role players around them, not a 3rd scorer. Guys to play good defensive and have efficient spots on the floor. Battier was added for this reason. Mike James would have been another, he was foremost desired because he is shooting lights out and plays good defensive, the fact he was a 3rd scorer/creator was the cherry on top. In sum I care less about having a 3rd guy who you can run your offense through or produce on his own than having guys produce efficiently off Tmac and Yao.

 

Jon Barry
Mike James