The Likely Tighter Collective Bargaining Agreement and the Rockets

http://ken-berger.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/11838893/19929589

As suspected, the NBA owners is presenting a tighter CBA, that lowers the share of the revenue that goes to salary and includes a hard cap, lower max salaries, less guaranteed years on contracts. Not to say that the players will accept it-- we still got a year to go before a decision has to be made as the current CBA expires, but the expiration of the current CBA hanging out there is probably impacting people's decison RIGHT NOW, as they prepare to face a different set of rules that likely further restricts salary.

So, I am thinking how things will impact the Rockets.

1. The threat of the tighter cap and lower salary in 2011 means a player has more of an incentive to try and get a deal done in 2010 (whether an extension, or an opt-out by those who can).

This is most relevant to the Rockets, I think, when it comes to Yao Ming. Who has a player option. If salaries (both max, and the resulting from that, the salary of everyone else) will be lower on the new CBA, or at least there is a reasonable probability that it will be so, there might be more of an incentive for him to opt out in 2010 with the promise of signing a longer term deal that will pay him less in 2010 but guarantee him more money in future years rather than going into the next season with the uncertainty about what kind of deals are even permitted under the new rules.

Not sure if he or the Rocket woudl do that, but there's more incentive for Yao do consider doing so right now.

2. Trading for players signed for multiple years under the current CBA is probably like attractive if there is likely to be a tighter new CBA. For example,k a guy like Iguodala's salary might look fine under the current structure, but if the cap is getting squeezed, his deal, signed under the current rules, will look worse under the new ones.

So... does that mean someone like Caron Butler, whose contract expires as the current CBA does, is looking better?

3. Good thing the Rockets don't have much money left on deals under this current CBA as the current CBA expires. Should give them opportunity to adjust to whatever changes get made.

4. A hard cap is probably better for this team's competitiveness in the long run. If everyone plays with the same money, and there are no one spending "Cuban money," a team with a smart GM is goin gto have even more of an advantage. Right now, Les will spend up to the tax limit, but no more. Others, though, can and will pay tax. Under the new rule, nobody will be able to spend more than Les.

5. Some team is going to overpay a FA this summer... and that overpayment will look even worse under a tighter CBA as that guy will take up a higher % of the team's resources. (Think Ron Mercer). I t.