I'm rooting for this kid. Eventually we knew we were going to lose Correa, but I think he'll fit in just fine.
I would be ecstatic if he has as good a year as Correa did in his rookie season .280, 22 HR, 68 RBIs. Realistically you cannot count on a rookie to be able to fill in the shoes of Carlos Correa. You need to find that elsewhere, and the Astros didn't do it. They got worse this year.
My prediction for Peña: 425 ab, .255/.310, 11 hr, 65 rbi, 75 r, 19 doubles, 14 sb and lots of bickering on ClutchFans re: typical rookie struggles/adjustments, also, 3rd in ROY voting thanks in part to stellar defense
My guess, on optimistic assumption the Astros truly have reason to believe he's a baller: 555 PA .272/.342/.487 22 HR, 21 SB; 2nd in ROY but that's only because Bobby Witt Jr has a huge year and gets MVP votes.
If he is Adam Everett most younger fans will be terribly disappointed, but people who understand the game will realize his value
Just wish he hadn’t lost 2+ years of development. If he can have a Lance Berkman-like debut for a full season (which also started at age 24), I’d be ecstatic.
I kept arguing in the early days of modern metrics that because Everett recorded 43 outs above average, he was actually more valuable than Jeter who was a below average fielder who made routine plays look difficult. I'm still the only one I convinced.
If he plays *good defense* and hits .250ba, 15 hr, .750 ops with 15 steals, then that would put him in the top 10-12 shortstops in the league in terms of WAR. In the company of Dansby Swanson, Willy Adames, Trevor Story, JP Crawford, and Amed Rosario. HOWEVER, I don't think he's going to full everyday player, as Baker will want to give time to Diaz, Goodrum, and possibly Leon throughout the year... and also limit Pena's innings to avoid hitting a rookie wall. Pena hasn't played many games these last two seasons. I see 100 games started as the ceiling for Pena.
Sometimes that happens... especially in a guy who by all accounts would already be a big leaguer if he hadn't had the injury and covid season. He's basically the same age as Tucker/Alvarez from a maturity/physicality standpoint... hopefully adjustments to the higher level can be made swiftly.
Unfortunately I see a sub .250 avg, maybe 12 HRs and 35+ RBIs being buried near the bottom of the order.
I think he will play about 120 games with stellar defense. I expect hitting numbers pretty forgettable but enough to keep him playing and have hope for improvement. .240avg 45runs 12hr 45rbi 28sb. 3.5WAR mostly from defense.
I don't know. He seems to have greater upside potential than typical but his development was hampered. I don't know if he will hit the ground running or take some time. Over the season, I just want 450 PA, above average defense and above replacement level offense (OPS+) for a rookie season. He's capable of doing better, but I'll have to see it first. That is essentially slightly better than 2018 Correa. 2018 Correa: 468 PA, dWAR 1.9, 99 OPS+.
