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The Jalen Green Experience is Coming

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Mathloom, Nov 9, 2021.

  1. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    This one statement alone is evidence that you generally just have no idea what you are talking about.

    TS% is the first stat anyone uses in determining scoring efficiency. eFG% is a secondary support stat to balance out 3PT% and 2PT%, but you can't literally take away a player's ability to get to the free throw line just because it somehow fits your argument better.

    Have you considered not posting so much and perhaps doing a little bit of a research first? If something as basic as eFG% and TS% needs to be explained to you, how could more complicated stats and breakdown get through to you at all?
     
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  2. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    As a tangent - I never had a lot of confidence in TS% vs PPP because of the way it's calculated

    For example, if you hit a 3 pointer your TS% for that shot is 150% which makes sense (3 points on 1 fg attempt normally worth 2 points).
    But...if you drive to the basket and get an and one and hit for the same 3 points, your TS% for that shot is 104% (WUT?). I guess you can argue that it took 2 shot to get the points vs 1. But seems really confusing, especially if you are an 85% foul shooter for instance.

    So good ft shooting players who draw a lot of and 1's get a bit penalized in TS%

    But yeah, who looks at eFG% any more?
     
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  3. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    When you say "evidence" what are you referring to? Stats? Eye test? Give me more than just "evidence" because if you're referring to stats that's EASILY obtainable in the year 2022. If it's the eye test then we can end our back and forth because that's purely subjective.

    I'll go ahead and assume you mean statistical evidence to which case:

    NameTimelineGamesFG%3PT%TS%
    Jalen GreenPre ASB4338.7%31.1%51.6%
    Jalen GreenPost ASB849.6%35.9%58.9%
    Anthony EdwardsPre ASB3637.1%30.2%46.6%
    Anthony EdwardsPost ASB3645.4%34.9%56.7%
    Zach LavinePre ASB4841.4%28.4%48.5%
    Zach LavinePost ASB2943.1%38.0%54.6%
    Jaylen BrownPre ASB5342.7%30.4%51.4%
    Jaylen BrownPost ASB2549.4%37.9%57.9%
    Trae YoungPre ASB5840.6%31.2%51.9%
    Trae YoungPost ASB2344.2%34.8%57.6%
    Darius GarlandPre ASB5339.4%35.2%49.4%
    Darius GarlandPost ASB645.9%39.1%53.1%
    Collin SextonPre ASB5840.8%39.2%48.9%
    Collin SextonPost ASB2447.7%41.3%58.5%
    Devin BookerPre ASB4845.0%40.3%57.3%
    Devin BookerPost ASB2840.1%28.7%50.3%
    Bradley BealPre ASB3939.3%36.5%49.6%
    Bradley BealPost ASB747.1%45.5%58.3%
    If you want me to do the math for you, Jalen's FG% change between pre and post ASBs is the highest among this group (+ 10.9%), however, Beal and Edwards' FG% improvements in their respective rookie seasons (8.3% and 7.8%) are also noticeably high. Jalen's 3PT% change is +4.8% pre vs post ASB which is about what the average of the other players on this list (3.6%) put up. TS% change is similar to the other rookies on this list with Jalen's +7.3% ranking 4th on this list behind Edwards, Sexton, and Beal. Even if Green kept up at this pace until the rest of the season, statistically, he wouldn't be performing at "ridiculously rare" levels--he would be preforming pretty much how a top lottery pick shooting guard would be.

    "I need real advanced metrics"

    Ok I got you that information too:

    PlayerSeasonAgeGMPPERTS%USG%WSWS/48eFG%OBPMDBPMBPMVORP
    Bradley Beal2012-131956174513.651.5%22.2030.08247.7%00.20.21
    Devin Booker2015-161976210811.953.5%23.001.90.04348.0%-1.2-1.7-2.8-0.5
    Anthony Edwards2020-211972231413.952.3%27.000.80.01748.8%-0.9-1.7-2.6-0.3
    Jalen Green2021-221951159111.253.0%22.90-0.2-0.00548.7%-1.2-2.4-3.6-0.7
    Zach LaVine2014-151977190211.351.5%22.00-0.7-0.01846.5%-2.2-2.5-4.6-1.3
    I only took the players from the first table who started their rookie year as a 19 year old but, again, what Jalen's producing in his rookie season is in line with other shooting guard rookies who were taken in the lottery. This also doesn't include the fact that Green still has 30 more games to go to improve on stats like BPM.

    Again, all I ask is for you to clarify what qualifies as evidence to you--statistical, eye-test, tea leaves, etc--so I that I can get on the same page because it seems like we're far apart. You say what Jalen's doing is ridiculously rare; what I'm saying is that it's not that uncommon if you take a look at the numbers from former rookie shooting guards.

    I have a subscription to stathead.com and I can pull whatever data you want if it's available.
     
  4. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Yes, I believe there were some insecurity issues in play.

    Perhaps doubting themselves so by kicking a 19 y/o kid when he was
    struggling to transition to the NBA somehow made them feel good about
    themselves?

    They hoped it would get back to Jalen and devastate him or demoralize him.
    Leaving him a shell of himself? Kick him hard in year one because deep
    down they feared he would mature....get stronger; and the man-child would
    turn into the man-man.

    If he doubted himself earlier he has overcome....may be stronger now as
    a result of their efforts. Or maybe I'm giving them too much credit.

    Keep it going Jalen and don't look back. You got this. GO Rockets!!!!

    **If we squint real hard and shine the light on you at just the right angle....
    you kinda look almost as good as Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams**

    No, just No
     
  5. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Outstaaaaanding
     
  6. Easy

    Easy Very Calm
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  7. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    I usually don’t post when I log off of my work computer but I decided to give CF some attention tonight.
     
  8. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    No....TS% shows how well someone is shooting the ball, eFG% shows how efficiently they are scoring.

    Perhaps do a better job of reading the comments you attempt to respond to and you won't make these kinds of mistakes in future.
     
  9. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    Another empty post that you could have avoided, if you had simply spent more time doing your own research. It takes 30 seconds to look up what TS% and eFG% is.

    True Shooting: True shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

    eFG: This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal.
     
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  10. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Yes......and that's why TS% tells you how well someone is shooting, and eFG% tells you how efficiently they are scoring.

    Good job kid.
     
  11. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Go through those again and see what their rookie jump in eFG% is. Beal doesn't count because he missed most of the 2nd half of the season his rookie year.

    You'll find the only player even close to comparable to the jump Green has made is Jaylen Brown....and he started off better and he finished not quite as well.

    Like I said, spin it all you want, but the massive leap in performance from Jalen Green over the past month worth of games is absolutely insane....trying to trivialize it by pretending it is something that happens often is just really weird.....but you be you.
     
  12. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    I'm not trying to sound harsh, but are you having a stroke? This is by far the most nonsensical thing I have read on this board in a while.

    TS% = How efficiently a player is scoring.
    eFG% = Adjusted FG% accounting for the value of 3 pointers, ignoring free throws.

    How is it that you are still not able to understand something so simple.
     
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  13. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    At least now I know you want to use eFG% as a baseline. What parameter do you want me to use for comparisons? I can't use Pre-ASB vs Post-ASB because the variance in # of games played at for each split will vary for each player. Do you want me to look at first 20 games, 30 games and compare it to their overall end of season value? I'm actually letting you dictate the parameters here so that you can't accuse me of "spinning" the data.
     
  14. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    steddinotayto killing flies with a bazooka.

    I like it
     
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  15. SC1211

    SC1211 Contributing Member
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    Lol except this is the exact opposite…
     
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  16. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    You have the patience of Job. I'm impressed. Seriously.
     
  17. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    @Bobbythegreat

    I don't know what parameters you're wanting me to run in regards to eFG% so I decided to go ahead and run it for the following parameters:

    eFG% first 25 games played in a rookie season, eFG% for the next 25 games played in a rookie season

    I thought this was fair considering Green's only played 51 games and splitting 50 in half is a lot easier than splitting 51.

    NameeFG% first 25 gameseFG% next 25 gamesDifference
    Jalen Green48.40%47.60%-0.80%
    Anthony Edwards44.60%46.90%2.30%
    Zach Lavine42.90%45.70%2.80%
    Jaylen Brown51.80%41.80%-10.00%
    Trae Young42.30%51.40%9.10%
    Darius Garland45.70%48.10%2.40%
    Collin Sexton47.70%41.50%-6.20%
    Devin Booker56.40%49.80%-6.60%
    If we're going by MY parameters for eFG% it doesn't look like it's proving anything about how "ridiculously rare" Green's performance has been in comparison to previous rookies shooting guards taken in the lottery. Again, these are MY parameters. If you want me to run something arbitrary like "first 43 games vs next 8 games" I will happily oblige.

    EDIT: Before anyone casts doubt on how I got these numbers or think I'm bullshitting here are the steps on how I got it:

    1. Looked up the game log for each player in their rookie year via basketball-reference.com. Find the date range on when they played their first 25 games.
    2. Go into NBA.com, plug the date range in to find the eFG%. Record data.
    3. Go back into basketball-reference.com. Find the date range for games 26 through 50 for same player.
    3. Go back in NBA.com plug in new date range to find eFG%. Recrod data.
    4. Repeat for the next 8 players.
     
    #4957 steddinotayto, Mar 10, 2022
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2022
  18. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    Thanks. If it weren't for you suggesting that I post more years ago I wouldn't be sitting here right now :)
     
  19. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    You got that backwards kiddo. Absolutely backwards lol. eFG% is a SHOOTING metric that adjusts percentages for 3 point shots being more valuable, TS% adjusts for BOTH 3 point shoots AND FT's. Just so you know, SCORING consists of baskets + FTs, which eFG% doesn't speak to.

    You can pay me for the basketball 101 lesson by donating to the tip jar.
     
  20. Rockets4Life13

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    My god, booby taking a beating as always.
     
    i3artow i3aller likes this.

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