FINAL day of the CYBER MONDAY SALE! Check out shop.clutchfans.net for gift ideas for the Houston sports fan!
  1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

The incredible transformation of Justin Brooks Verlander

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Yordan The Great, Jul 9, 2022.

  1. Marshall Bryant

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2018
    Messages:
    5,152
    Likes Received:
    2,481
    Unfortunately, the buyout is assumed so the CBT (Competitive Balance Tax) would be $40M,$40M, $40M. This is why I suggest a longer term without a Buyout to shift CBT toward the later years. I'm not sure if a Retirement Bonus is even a possibility or how it would be calculated for CBT purposes. But it would have to be limited to less than the remaining contract and close any FA possibility to the end of the contract term. ie NOT an opt out bonus. If he falls apart as some expect, he can go out early with an incentive to do so.
     
  2. Marshall Bryant

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2018
    Messages:
    5,152
    Likes Received:
    2,481
    I honestly don't know. But he seems to be a rare breed that will compare the bottom line rather than the Top line which some ego driven adhere to.

    Ball Park difference after unconstitutional favoritism in allowing deduction ONLY for income tax paid to other states. (I think I remember it being declared unconstitutional.)

    (N) No State Income tax
    (H) 10% State Income tax
    $40M at 10% State and local Income Taxes. $40M/2 + $20M for HOME GAMES. $2M State income tax difference. So a $38M Texas Contract is ~=~ a $40M contract in a 10% Income tax State. $45M in a 10% Tax State would be $45M/2=$22.5M. $22.5M * 10% = $2.25M, so $42.75M equivalent value.

    3 - $45M (H) = $42.75M (N) * 3 = $128.25M (N) vs $135M (H).
     
    #302 Marshall Bryant, Nov 17, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2022
  3. Marshall Bryant

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2018
    Messages:
    5,152
    Likes Received:
    2,481
    Bookies building in a ton of cushion. 118% without Houston or others.
     
  4. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2018
    Messages:
    2,410
    Likes Received:
    2,086
    If he goes all the way to FA (which I suspect he will) I would expect him to get 35M AAV if he keeps the deal to 5 years or less. That’s a lot of ifs, thus why my buy out price would top at 30M a year for those FA years (as many as he wants to sell) along with 40M for arbitration. That’s probably even being generous. Correa, for example, topped out at 12M in his arb 3 year.
     
  5. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2021
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    1,508
    Not true.

    A players option is considered guaranteed.

    Therefore it's $130M in 4 yrs

    Not $120M in 3yrs.

    That's how the team was able to work Odorizzi's deal under the CBT.
     
    Marshall Bryant likes this.
  6. Marshall Bryant

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2018
    Messages:
    5,152
    Likes Received:
    2,481
    I didn't know if a conditional player's option would be considered guaranteed. So $32.5M AAV. I like it. I looked back and you did not suggest a conditional option so I was incorrect in making that assumption.

    JVs 2023 conditional option whether included in the 2022 $25M AAV calculation or not would result in the same AAV. So I'm still uncertain about conditional player option AAV calculations.
     
    #306 Marshall Bryant, Nov 17, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2022
  7. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2021
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    1,508
    If it's a player option then the team has no way of getting out of it. Player complete control so it counts.

    Any other option only the buyout counts w/o the additional year.
     
    Marshall Bryant likes this.
  8. Marshall Bryant

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2018
    Messages:
    5,152
    Likes Received:
    2,481
    So my 5 yr $150M with year 6 player option for $25M with minimums to kick in would be calculated as a 6 year $175M for AAV purposes or $29.166667M AAV
     
  9. Yordan The Great

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2019
    Messages:
    1,841
    Likes Received:
    2,925
    Players traded away for JV:

    Franklin Perez: total flop
    Daz Cameron: about to be total flop
    Jake Rogers: might be career backup catcher
     
  10. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2021
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    1,508
    And they were all top 10 organizational prospects.

    Perez was rated higher than Brown is now when he was traded. Prospects are prospects until they make it.
     
  11. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2002
    Messages:
    5,125
    Likes Received:
    1,788
    Stunning fall from grace for Frankie Perez. Roughly 3era in A+/AA at 19. Average to plus 4 pitch mix. Think he got as high as top 50 on prospect lists. He was as sure a pitching prospect at the time as I can remember.

    The tigers are as snakebit an organization as it gets with regard to pitching. So many went down with injuries or outright busted: Frankie Perez, Casey MIze, Tarik Skubal, Beau Burrows. Matt Manning is one of their prospect success stories and he put up a whopping 1fWAR last year.
     
  12. rockets1995

    rockets1995 Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2011
    Messages:
    4,294
    Likes Received:
    5,504
    It was shocking Franklin Perez just became inconsistent, a 3 era when traded a 5 era, its like it broke him. I really think he wanted to stay with the latin players on the Astros.

    Franklin Perez was released by the Tigers and resigned him. It is getting really weird, Tigers dont know what they are doing.
     
  13. Yordan The Great

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2019
    Messages:
    1,841
    Likes Received:
    2,925
    JV currently 27th all time in WAR among pitchers.

    2 more solid seasons and he'll be in the top 17, just passing Pedro Martinez.
     
    #313 Yordan The Great, Nov 21, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2022
  14. sealclubber1016

    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    16,753
    Likes Received:
    21,145
    Franklin Perez had major injury issues. Prior to this season he had only pitched 9 games in almost 5 calender years.

    We don't know if he would have been any good, the prospect hype might have been real. Shoulder issues for a pitcher is game over.
     
    xcrunner51 likes this.
  15. Yordan The Great

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2019
    Messages:
    1,841
    Likes Received:
    2,925
    Predict his top 5 likeliest destinations.

    My prediction:

    1. Rangers
    2. Red Sox
    3. Astros
    4. Mets
    5. Angels

    Rangers need starting pitching very badly and they just watched the Angels sign Tyler Anderson.

    The Red Sox have cleared a lot of room to make a splash in free agency.

    The Mets owner appears to be spendiing whatever it will take.

    The Angels know the window of opportunity with Trout is starting to close. And the same for the Bochy hire, 5-6 years max. They are in win now mode.
     
    #315 Yordan The Great, Nov 23, 2022 at 8:21 PM
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2022 at 8:30 PM
  16. marks0223

    marks0223 2017 and 2022 World Series Champions
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2007
    Messages:
    9,434
    Likes Received:
    11,982
    Rangers? They can offer him a record AAV and he isn't signing there. He wants to get to 300 wins. He can get a big contract and sign with a guaranteed winner. If you're going to put a bad team on top of your list then I'd say Angels are more likely since LA is home.
     
  17. Marshall Bryant

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2018
    Messages:
    5,152
    Likes Received:
    2,481
    ~LAA is a great place to work. No overtime required. Always able to prepare for the opening of deer season - bow hunting that is.~
     
  18. rockets94-95

    rockets94-95 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2013
    Messages:
    1,446
    Likes Received:
    1,327
    LA no longer home for the Verlanders. They moved to Florida last year.
     
  19. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2021
    Messages:
    1,352
    Likes Received:
    1,508
    I remember during the JV showcase and pony show last offseason there were reports that he wanted to sign with a team that has spring training in Florida to be close to home.

    That may not be as important now that he is out of rehab routine and has made it 100% back.
     
  20. scott_summers

    scott_summers Member

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2008
    Messages:
    9
    Likes Received:
    8
    I wonder if we could pick him up and get him back with our coaches. Do you think he could find his mojo again?
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now