2014-2015 Rockets: 11.3 3PM / 32.7 3PA = 34.8% - 2014-2015 Warriors: 10.8 3PM / 27.0 3PA = 39.8% 2013-2014 Spurs: 8.5 3PM / 21.4 3PA = 39.7% 2012-2013 Heat: 8.7 3PM / 22.0 = 39.6% The last three champions were elite shooting teams, with GSW being a high-volume and high-percentage shooting team, and SAS/MIA being high-percentage teams. We all know that analytically, the 3-point shot is overall a more efficient one than most 2-point FGA, but the variance that comes with it and its lower made % equals more DRB/transition opportunities for the opponent, and a higher likelihood of "off-games" than for a interior-focused team. This quote from the Sloan Analytics Conference from 2 years ago summarizes it quite well: "There is a problem with the 3, however. While a triple-heavy attack is, in game theory parlance, a dominant strategy, it’s also a high-variance one. 3s are worth more than other shots and they go in less frequently, reducing the predictability of individual games. This makes a 3-centric offense well-suited for an 82 game regular season, where, over six months, the variance is ironed out–you lose a game you shouldn’t have here, steal one there–but in, say, a seven game playoff series, it can be a risky way for a favorite to play." In other words, it's a risky strategy, but the reward outweighs the risk if you're a team that shoots it in the high 30s (or damn-near 40%, if you're GSW or SAS). But if you're shooting it at 34-35% like we are, the risk/reward ratio is obviously not as positive. Sure, 34% from three technically equals 51% from two, but you have to remember that those extra misses from three equal more DRB/transition opportunities for the opponent, and when stretched across multiple games, it means more variance and less dependability (more 7-29ish games from deep, which are difficult to overcome). And when you look at our roster, we have plenty of guys who can hit the three, but none that you can consistently depend on to knock it down (like Steph, Klay, Danny Green, and Ray Allen from the champs' rosters). Since 2011: Harden: 37.1% (2.3 3PM per game) Ariza: 37.0% (1.8 3PM per) Lawson: 35.9% (1.1 3PM per) Brewer: 28.0% (0.8 3PM per) Beverley: 35.9% (1.6 3PM per) McDaniels: 28.3% (0.7 3PM per) Motiejunas: 31.3% (0.5 3PM per) T.Jones: 30.6% (0.4 3PM per) Terry: 37.9% (1.6 3PM per) We just went 8-35 against Denver and 5-23 against Golden State. Like Morey has said before, variance can be a good thing, but when your roster is filled with streaky shooters and you're launching more threes than pretty much any team in NBA history, those terrible shooting nights from three are going to be a big part of many of your losses. We simply don't have the shooters to be relying on this philosophy as heavily as we do. That being said, analytics also support the claim that catch-and-shoot threes are far more successful than off-the-dribble ones, and just watching the ball-movement of GSW and SAS in recent years supports that. Hell, the top three teams in APG last year (GSW/ATL/LAC) also were the top-3 teams in 3P%, and in the same order. Our poor ball-movement certainly does not help our 3P%.
It's crazy to have a roster that does not suit your philosophy-- no knock-down three-point shooters anywhere in sight. Wish Yao were with this group; he could hit free throws.
Yup, that is one thing that baffles me. I was sure Morey would go after the likes of Anthony Morrow a few years ago and others in recent years. He continues to go after bad shooters. Nothing against Harrell, but he's not the stretch 4 you would think he would go after. Dekker even less. KJ, Brewer, Josh Smith. Just examples, but it holds true. Only Ariza of the current additions is a great shooter. Terry used to be one. Thorton might be our best shot at a guy who could benefit from a system where he just needs to stand in the corner and wait for Harden / Ty to penetrate and kick it out.
For whatever reason Morey has not valued shooting, which is frustrating for fans like myself who think it is the single most important skill in the league. DD
Correct and the problem is people not hitting shots and no stretch PFs to clear the paint. Notice how harden and lawson get smothered in the paint when they drive because they are not worried about our PFS trying to take outside shots then ontop of it our 3pt shooters miss.
What exacerbates our problem is that besides having average and streaky 3 point shooters is we also don't have crisp passing. Those three elite shooting teams you mentioned: Warriors, Spurs, and the Heat, especially the former two had amazing ball movement. Every shooter knows that it is way easier to shoot the ball in rhythm. When you take a look at the Rockets, the 3s that are shot when James isn't playmaking are all contested and not in rhythm. That hurts shooters like Ariza, Brewer, and Beverley who are all streaky shooters.
This is the same philosophy that got us the number two seed and to the wcf. The problem is Harden is shooting way worse than normal. Harden Ariza Lawson and Bev can all shoot in the high 30s. Maybe DMo can too
I think that was the spurs loss to pelicans that afforded Houston to get 2nd seed. They should have been 6th
These are all really good points and things I have thought about over the past couple of years. I feel the same way about all analytics-based decision making in sports. These philosophies are hashed out by looking at averages. So over the course of a season, the numbers will average out. But in a 7 game series, or 1 game, or even making a decision in football about whether to go for it on 4th down, using those same averages doesn't make sense because the variables in that individual game are much different than the average over the course of a season. Also... you made the point about catch and shoot 3's. This is something else I have thought about. Although shooting 3's may make sense mathematically, you can't just choose to shoot more 3's and expect to shoot the same percentage. The more you shoot, the more the defense keys in and causes your average to go down. So if you are going to launch more 3's, you better have an offense that can get your team more open looks so that your percentage doesn't suffer. The Rockets shoot a lot of 3's, but I don't find that their offense creates as many open looks from 3 as the Spurs or Warriors offense. Maybe their percentage would be higher if they got more open looks.
Very nice thread. Clearly summarizes the team's philosophy that we've been figuring out over the past 5-6 years. I'm also wanting better shooters on this team now rather than tempo pushers like Corey Brewer. With the talent/asset level the team has I think we can swap out some athleticism for skill fairly easily. I think a prime candidate to trade for some shooting is KJ McDaniels, along with Brewer & Dekker. We absolutely need better shooting to make our current offense successful The conclusion of my thread from couple of years back: this offense type with poor shooting is not reliable against the better defensive teams
Shooting threes by any means necessary is just stupid, plain and simple. I don't know how many times we settle for a three when we could easily get closer and get a better shot. A three is not a better shot than a mid to long range two, per se.
People act like "Moreyball" is the problem with our team... it's not like Morey is drawing up plays. The problem is nobody is drawing up plays. Our players look ****ing clueless on offense because they have no direction. If we actually had some coaching/sets/plays/etc we could get players those open 3's and layups. Instead we just rely on Harden to be a wizard.
To compensate for not good shooters you need A) good rebounding B) wings that leak fast in transition defence That's the problem we dont' have either of those things. Also I found this interesting : Defensive adjustments to Moreyball: http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/10/29/defensive-adjustments-to-moreyball/ * The new coach of OKC made sure to make THAT the focus of their new defence. Limit opponents 3 point attempts But Harell was a second rounder and Dekker was the no.18 pick. At that point you draft the best player available not for fit. Most players drafted in the second rounder don't stay in the league for long (dont' bother listing the exceptions because they are that, exceptions). On the other hand you can trade these players when they have raised their value and try to get players that fit you in FA and trades.
A lot of you are acting like it's easy to find guys that can hit the 3, drive and kick, and play defense. There are simply not enough of those guys in this league to go around. Especially with the current trend of teams going small. Everyone needs more wings.
well to the point that OTmax made above there were two-three good shooters in last years' draft. One was R.J Hunter who went with pick 28. If we valued shooting above every other skill we would have drafted him. We didn't. Covington in philly is one of the better young 3point shooting wings. We let him go for nothing.
Trade for Ryan Anderson, He played with Howard before , great shooter great rebounder at times , a mehhh defender but a perfect fit.
The problem with "moreyball" is that it gets it's data from teams that were able to win by figuring out how to use their players to maximum efficiency (because that's what every championship team ever was). If you can easily and consistently get your players shots they're comfortable taking they will shoot a high%. The teams that can do that efficiently will be able to take a lot of field goal attempts and are likely to take a lot of 3 point attempts as well. These teams will win a lot of games. Moreyball takes the data from those teams and says to win you must shoot a lot of threes, regardless of what kind of shots those are. While a well chosen, well designed and well practiced play is going to have a lot higher chance of success than always the same type of movement, passing and dribbling patterns to get the same types of shots.
10-35 tonight, and god knows how bad the 2nd half shooting was. Variance can work against you within the game as well, though it's clear that we have a handful of other issues outside of shooting.
