Due to its huge population, rapidly growing economy and national obsession with basketball, I believe, in twenty years China will dominate world basketball. By then China will be the largest economic power in the world and they will be able to buy anything, including professional athletes, to entertain their population. The NBA will be a bush league similar to the present Euroleagues. What do you think?
First of all, huge population NOT = more good basketball prospects. Asia has the biggest population among the continents in the world. How many Asian players have we seen in the NBA? Secondly, economic power NOT = more basketball talents. How many NBA-calibre basketball players can you find in Japan today? China will probably has a bigger economy than Japan 20 years later. But I don't know how you can translate that into success in basketball. Lastly, there is no national obsession with basketball in China. Just like in Europe, soccer is by far the most popular sport in China. I don't think more than 1% of Chinese can name all the basketball teams in their own pro league.
I'd think Africa would be the next big basketball power..they have superior athletes, all they need is to have them develop from a young age
There are eight times as many Chinese people as there are Americans. As China's economy improves and their people's standard of living improves more Chinese will embrace basketball. I would guess that there are now more Chinese youth who play basketball than there are in the United States and this disproportion will continue to increase. Take Clutch BBS for instance, everyday more and more Rocket fans from China sign up for our forum and actively and intelligently participate in discussions. Oh by the way who is the most famous athlete in the world. My vote goes to Houston Rockets starting center, Yao Ming.
how does China become an elite basketball powerhouse when all they play is other Chinese basketball players in Chinese leagues?
I'm surprised no one has said it yet, It's all about the money. The NBA will follow the fans. The US might be the best producer of talent, but if the best players are greedy enough, they'll jump ship. Our league will still be relevant as I think there are more VSpans than less. But with enough money, there will definitely be an international league.
One billion eight hundred million Chinese would beg to disagree with your analysis. What is the population of Europe, maybe 400 million.
It's not just about raw numbers, why do you think african americans make up 13.4% of the population of the US, yet nearly (totally?) 100% of the US Mens National team. If you're waiting for Chinese to make up 50% or more of the NBA you're going to be waiting a long, long, long time
Chinese have been long and far more obsessed with soccer for decades and they are not even close to be the best in Asia, or in East Asia. Basketball is a different animal, but I don't see how Chinese basketball dominates the world, like, say their table tennis or badminton does. At best, they can be competent enough to compete with the traditional powerhouses in the two America's and Europe. But that's pretty much it. Guys like Yao (and Yi, if you wanna add) are extremely rare commodities in China.
No, that's not what I said. I said they managed to makeup the majority of elite american male basketball players despite being a minority of the population - which casts doubt on the theory that china will dominate basketball simply by virtue of its large population. A pretty simple point. If you want to get into al debate and discussion about the social and cultural history of African-americans and their involvement in athletics - a fascinating topic - feel free to start a thread in the Debate & Discussion forum.
The answer is that relative population size does not determine success in basketball - this part was contained in the "it's not just about raw numbers" part that you intentionally omitted. Get it? Simple point.
