[The Facts] Who played against the Warriors and who didn't?

This series, we will unfortunately be playing without these two:

 

The Warriors help D will converge, but there are two ways to handle it.

First I wasn't primarily talking about conventional post ups. I was thinking of scoring dunks off of penetration passes (Harden primarily to Howard/Jones), quick cuts to the basket by the guards (and Jones and Smith) with the trailer getting quick flashes to the basket.

The second way is controlling the paint with offensive rebounds.

Also, something else to consider is that both Jones and Smith can put the ball on the floor and pass well to the corners. Most teams do not have the finishers that the Rockets have inside, and if they do, they do not have the post players that can put the ball on the floor. The Rockets are also more physical than the Warriors inside if they can avoid foul trouble.

If the Rockets score on kick outs, you will see them less likely to come over on help defense which really opens up conventional post ups and penetration by Harden.

The Warriors do run multiple screens. I think the Rockets can handle them if they are very disciplined. It comes down to fighting hard on the screens and making smart switches. The Warriors turn the ball over, and the Rockets need to immediately get out in transition which will make the Warriors a little gun shy on the passes/screens.

I don't think you will see Brewer start, but I do think you will see him play 30 minutes a night. He is capable of guarding 3 positions against the Warriors. You could see Ariza and Brewer both on the floor at the same time, playing the passing lanes and chasing Curry and KT.

Another guy I think that could be very surprisingly effective is Pablo Prigioni. He is smart and good at handling screens. He is not long, but he is predictable and will stay with Curry on shaded screens. Also, he can break down the defense enough to get someone flashing to the basket.

Oddly enough, both the Rockets and Warriors are one injury away from being toast. An injury to Green or Bogut and the Warriors are a dramatically different team. An injury to Ariza or Smith and the Rockets can be swept.

 

Rockets in 4.

 

This series will be tough for both teams.

 

I think that with Jones and Smoove Draymond Green's strength will be lessened to a degree. And to me the Warriors this year are only where they are because of the emergence of Green as a significant and productive two way player

On offense he is a perimeter player - ZBo isnt comfortable guarding out there and AD -- well he can cover anyone but he was also responsible to protect the paint and block shots.

The smaller lineups the Rockets have played with Jones/Dwight/Smoove playing the one "big" will not help Draymond as he will have a guy that is just as big and mobile as him on him on the perimeter.

Green is also deceptively strong - Zbo loves to back guys in and Green can handle that. AD doesn't have much of a post game yet and is used in pick and roll/pop and he is good with that.

Smoove and Jones tend to put the ball a lot more on the perimeter and drive to the hoop. Jones can post up but he uses his quickness when posting up instead of strength. Both are still really athletic (despite not being as long as AD or strong as Zbo) and use their quickness more than anything. Both are willing to shoot it from deep something Green hasnt had to deal with yet.


I still think Green is an advantage of course for the Warriors but he developed his game to exploit the majority of the PFs of the West and maybe fortunately for the Rockets the PFs they do have outside of Dmo don't really play that way which would make his strengths less of a factor since we dont really play that way anyway.

 

After going against Jordan and Griffin I think Bogut and Green are not nearly as intimidating.

 

The series will end in 5 games. Either we win 4:1 or loss 4:1. Warriors is explosive and a good defense team also. If we play the same way as the regular season, they will win. But we are not the same team anymore. JSmith integrated into the team. Howard is different too, he does not play a lot of backing anymore, more deadly P&R. Warriors's sharp shooting is their main weapon. If Curry keep shooting at 50% from 3 pt line, they win 4:1. If our defense intensity can control their shooting, we will win 4:1.

 

Playoff Dwight did not play in any of the regular season games, so everything changes.

 

So are we winning or what.

 

I think the Rockets need to take a look at film of Game 2 and 3 of the Warriors-Grizzlies game. Maybe they can mimic some stuff from there since Memphis won both of those games. I'm not an analysis guy but thought I'd just throw that out there.

 

The warriors haven't played THIS Dwight. Seeing that we started canaan papa and black in the first matchup was a nice laugh.

 

Yeah, I think we can really be effective with a lot of movement towards the basket and working the mid-range & low-post/under-the-basket game. Not sure about Jones and Smith handling ball too much from the perimeter going inward (given Warriors' more mobile "bigs" as defenders), but if they can finish and play off of passes and other player movement, it could be huge for us. I think the Warriors can beat us out in small ball, we need our big guys to step up.

Ariza isn't always the most assertive offensively.. I think Brewer (and TJones & Smith) has to bring that for us and help to put the pressure on the Warriors inside.

If we can get Harden pick & roll going with Howard and Smith (and Capella), and the perimeter guys knock down their catch & shoots, things should open up for us. My fear is Harden stalling and holding ball on the perimeter, not being able to drive, no off-the-ball movement, etc. --> then Rox become very easy to guard.

I do see Prigioni being able to play well defensively in the way you describe, and he should be fine against Livingston, but he will have a tough time against Barbosa (too quick).