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The Early States: time to go on record

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Major, Jan 17, 2020.

  1. Major

    Major Member

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    Who do you think will win the early states? My picks (1st and 2nd):

    Iowa (Feb 3): Biden, Bernie
    New Hampshire (Feb 9): Bernie, Pete
    Nevada (Feb 22): Bernie, Biden
    South Carolina (Feb 29): Biden (big), Bernie

    Biden then generally dominates Super Tuesday and that's the unofficial end of it, IMO (though Bernie can win several more states like in 2016 and Hillary in 2008). What each candidate needs:

    Biden: Not finish 4th anywhere (3rd might also be a problem if it's both Iowa & NH)
    Bernie: Needs to win Iowa to have a shot and is possible
    Warren: Needs to finish in the top 2 in one of the first two states (and probably 2 of 4)
    Pete: Needs to win both Iowa and NH
    Amy: Needs to finish top 3 in Iowa and still needs a miracle. Helps if Biden is 4th.
    Bloomberg: Needs Bernie/Warren to do well in the first 4 states and essentially eliminate Biden/Pete.
    Yang: Hopeless (sorry)
    Steyer: Hopeless
    Gabbard: Needs FOX to come calling so she has a reason to extract herself from this race
     
    #1 Major, Jan 17, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2020
    Corrosion, Rashmon and B-Bob like this.
  2. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    Can't argue with any of that.

    The opportunity window for something volatile to happen to shake up this race is getting small.
     
  3. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    I will go a little different just to be contrarian, though I don't disagree with your picks.

    Iowa - Pete, Bernie
    NH - Warren, Bernie
    Nevada - Bernie, Biden
    South Carolina - Biden, Warren
     
    joshuaao, Nook and Major like this.
  4. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    I “like” your analysis, but dislike the reality.
     
  5. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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    I think it will be long decided by the time it get to Indiana, so I will just sit and watch. None of the top Democrats are super attractive, but I will take anyone over Trump.
     
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  6. Major

    Major Member

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    I shouldn't say Bernie needs to win Iowa. He needs Biden to NOT win Iowa, and he needs to finish 2nd at least.
     
    DonnyMost likes this.
  7. ElPigto

    ElPigto Member
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    Reality hurts.
     
  8. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost not wrong
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    Iowa (Feb 3): Sanders > Biden > Buttigieg > Warren
    New Hampshire (Feb 9): Sanders > Biden > Warren > Buttigieg
    Nevada (Feb 22): Biden > Sanders > Warren > Yang
    South Carolina (Feb 29): Biden > Sanders > Steyer > Warren

    Sanders starts strong but has another rough Super Tuesday.

    Buttigieg craters after IA/NH.

    Warren can't overcome her slow start.

    Brokered convention.

    DNC continues to do dumb things that piss off everyone.

    We all die in a hellfire tsunami.
     
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  9. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost not wrong
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    Only somewhat related, but look at this spending map.

    upload_2020-1-17_12-8-40.png

    This race is nuttybutts. Bloomberg could have some kind of insane Super Tuesday breakout.
     
  10. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    Deval Patrick is clearly the man to look out for
     
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  11. Major

    Major Member

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    I don't think it will work, but I do appreciate Bloomberg's strategic plan. He wasn't going to win those early states while joining this late. So he identified where he has a unique advantage (big states where money rules and states where no one else is paying attention yet) and is going all-in there. Basically, he's playing Moneyball/Moreyball/Ravensball in politics. We'll see what impact it has. I still think he's basically a backup plan if Biden falters. I also love that his ads are basically tearing down Trump / propping himself up. But at no point has he gone after any other Dems, so he's not doing any damage to whoever the eventually nominee is.
     
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  12. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    They need the other one to drop out and support them (though the recent spat will hurt them even then).
     
  13. Amiga

    Amiga I get vaunted sacred revelations from social media
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    Iowa: Biden > Buttigieg > Warren > Sanders
    NH: Biden > Sanders > Warren > Buttigieg
    Nevada: Biden > Sanders > Warren > Buttigieg
    SC: Biden > Warren > Sanders > Buttigieg
     
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  14. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    still waiting for Bill Bradley to pull ahead
     
  15. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost not wrong
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    I think it will end up being bad for Biden as their lanes of support have significant overlap. I think it will end up preventing him from sealing the nomination before the convention. It's also bad news for fringe candidates like Yang and Klobuchar because it increases the cost of advertising and they are playing with less cash than others and need to stretch those dollars.

    The majority of attacks we have seen have come in/during/from debates, of which Bloomberg has participated in zero. I've not seen a single TV ad from a candidate that attacks another candidate, either. At least not one from a campaign itself (in-kind stuff is a different animal).
     
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  16. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    Bloomberg ain't messing around! :eek: But I really hope he doesn't win with this strategy. I'd like to live in a fairytale land where you can't just buy your party's nomination.
     
  17. HTM

    HTM Member

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    I don't feel like I'm qualified to give an opinion on who will win what primary but I'm interested to see how it shakes out. It's all finally coming to a head.
     
    Major likes this.
  18. Major

    Major Member

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    I agree on both. Although, everything I read when Bloomberg joined was that he did it only because Biden was faltering. If Biden does well in the early states, I do wonder if he drops out? It seems like a hard thing to do when you've spent $200MM and you haven't gotten to any of your states yet, but I think his big thing is avoiding Bernie/Warren, so I wonder if he really stays in if it would just help those two.
     
  19. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Biden wins and becomes president

    Republicans narrowly hold Senate. 2 years of nothing follow. Then in 2022 Dems control everything and only get an updated version of obamacare through.

    Nikki Haley becomes president in 2024
     
    Major likes this.
  20. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    I'm to the point I don't want either party controlling "everything" .... that's dangerous.

    A big part of why I don't want a second Trump term is SCOTUS nominees - RBG cant hold on forever and I don't want to see her replaced with a GOP appointee tilting the court and Breyer isn't a spring chicken either at 81. A second Trump term could give us a 7-2 court .... that's not good no matter which way it leans.

    I'm quite content with a 5-4 court .... literally everything that's been achieved in terms of human rights and social justice in the past 40 years has been with a 5-4 court of conservative leanings and the number of cases I disagree with the high court are few - Citizens United (sure wish they would revisit this one) being one and the ACA individual mandate being another - They get it right the vast majority of the time.
     
    jiggyfly and Andre0087 like this.

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