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The Doomsday Cult Risk: What if they blow up the season and Yao returns?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, Jun 29, 2009.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    From Ric Bucher's tweeter account (probably already posted)



    I think most of us have heard of these "doomstay cults" (like the Jonestown people) who commit mass suicide thinking the world is going to end, and well, it hasn't yet.

    Given Bucher's report on Twitter (and on ESPN), there seems to be a decent chance that Yao's season, let alone his career, is not over. Sure, he'll still be injury prone, but we know that already. If it's no worse than it was in March 2008 (and hopefully, he has a better chance now of getting the summers off given the news), is blowng up the team really the best policy?

    I mean, the doomsday cults are not technically wrong as there are ways the end of the world can come very quickly (nukes, etc.) we just kind of deal with it.

    I don't know... to me, the Rockets may only have 50% chance of Yao being healthy for a playoff ride even if they play their cards right, and maybe only a 10% (maybe less) chance of getting to and winning the finals, even if they bring back Artest and add on more useful piece.

    If we do proceed with throwing away all the useful guys like Scola, Battier, Artest, Landry, etc. just to get a higher lotto pick, do the Rockets even have a good probability of getting back to where they are now (i.e. 10% chance, maybe less) in a few years?

    Sure, hopefully, the Rockets managment are good enough to increase their chances at the picking a star at the top of the draft, but what if the lotto ball don't bounce right and you end up with Keith Van Horn instead of Tim Duncan? What if you end up with the Kwame Brown year or the Kenyon Martin year when there really aren't any franchise player? Sure, the Rockets would have been better off winning the lotto in 2003 and end up with Lebron James instead of Yao, but it could be worse. I mean, just look at what happened to the guy picked #2 in Yao's year.

    Yeah, it takes quite a bit of luck to succeed with the current cast... but it's not like starting over is a surefire thing.

    (I was thinking about Romeo and Juliet, too... you know, mistakening thinking someone died, commit suicide... and turns out they are alive... would be silly).
     
  2. Raven

    Raven Member

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    If Yao comes back, it's only a matter of time before he's injured again.

    And again.

    And again.

    He's brittle. It's over. Time to move on.
     
  3. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    I wish we'd move on but it looks like we are risking next year for this year if the ABC report is true. Not that we were going to be big players next year but still.
     
  4. saleem

    saleem Member

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    Exactly,we have no choice but to rebuild from scratch.
     
  5. BigVic785

    BigVic785 Member

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    Everybody talks about rebuilding now, but no one wants to watch a loser.

    Can we handle a few Steve Francis Era esque year?

    When we have a team with some potential to win; we should take it
     
  6. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Agree. Maybe Les wont let Morey rebuild just as Drayton wont allow Wade to rebuild. They want fans in the stands and money in their pocket.
     
  7. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Give it a year or two and Morey would have this team right back in contention. And of course we want to win, but its hard to win or go far in the playoffs when your main player and go to guy gets hurt every year. The sooner you can get the brittle man off your hands, the sooner you can start winning and going further in the playoffs. With a new foot or leg injury occuring every year, we'll be a good team but wont challenge for much.
     
  8. BigVic785

    BigVic785 Member

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    This team does have a good young nucleus, but what free agent would want to sign here with only a bunch of young players at its core? We would have to devolope through the draft which takes years to build a championship contender, no matter how good your general manager is.

    We have a dominant center and a very good supporting cast. Resign Ron and take your chances with Ron and Yao. This team gave the NBA champions a run for thier money without Yao and Tracy. Try to trade Tracy and take your chances.

    The time is now.
     
  9. sbyang

    sbyang Member

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    Let's see now, March 2008 to August 2008, 5 month to recover.

    May 2009 to Oct 2009, that's 5 month. Of course we'd want to give him extra rest, so I say best case scenario is he returns after All Star.

    I say go ahead and blow it up, if there's a trade out there that will improve the team long term, then lets make it, even if it leaves the team weaker next season. Morey should plan next season like Yao is out for the year, if he comes back and we're in playoff position, that'd be gravy.
     
  10. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    The true rox fans watched them trade the 2 time mvp in his prime, be sorry for 2 yrs and then make it to the finals. Its always what's on the front, not the back.
     
  11. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Sure, but are there good "blow it up" trades to be had?

    They tried for Rubio and, so far, it hasn't worked. I'm for that deal, Yao or no Yao, if Rubio really has a good chance to be a Kidd/Nash level player.

    I'm not sure who is gonna knock on the door for Scola, or Brooks, Battier, Landry, etc., sure they should listen, but this whoe "starting over" thing is harder than people think.

    I haven't studied this upcoming year's draft class... is John Wall or whoever is supposed to go top few picks a Tim Duncan or Kenyon Martin (i.e. decent player, but nothing worth blowing up the team to draft)?

    They might want to eventually blow it up, but does doing so now help speed things up even by a year?
     
  12. saleem

    saleem Member

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    John Wall may or may not be Kenyon Martin,but we are going to be stuck in the middle with what's left,and even that won't last long. It will have to be done sooner or later. Starting all over will be painful and slow,DM will have to make the right choices,but there is no other way out.
     
  13. saleem

    saleem Member

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    Les is still hoping for what you are saying. My concern is he wants to swing for the fences when Yao leaves.We are likely to get stuck with disgruntled 2nd tier "stars",who won't have the patience to be on a rebuilding team.
     
  14. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Yeah it may end up that way if Yao leaves. We gotta take the Portland approach. But then again who knows what happens. I need some clarification on this whole Yao thing. First its reported by Y! Sports that it will most likely keep him out for the season, and even maybe career, and now ESPN/Ric Bucher says things were exaggerated or "overhyped" and he'll take the surgery and will be fine to play in the 2nd half of the season. Yes the injury is real but something tells me AW at Y! Sports wouldnt just throw that out there to throw it out there.
     
  15. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    And there is no risk of that when you rebuild through young lotto pick talent...

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  16. Teamwork

    Teamwork Member

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    Well, the Yao's news certainly sucks. But it's not the time to get panic and make rash decisions that the team regrets later.

    The team that took the lakers to 7 games was a lot of fun to watch. I don't see we should blow up this team just yet.

    some fans here just way over-estimate other teams(over-hyped) while under-estimate this rocket team. It's like they always think other women are more good looking than their own wives... funny concept.
     
  17. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    Exactly. People often forget that sports are for entertainment, and they get too emotionally invested in it. I want to turn on any given Rockets game and watch my team play fun basketball and have a chance to win.

    I want to win a championship as bad as anyone but I don't see tanking as a reasonable route. As long as you stay competitive you're only a few pieces away from making that step, and we have a GM who can handle that.
     
  18. dexkk

    dexkk Member

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    Portland has a good GM and it still took them awhile to get back. They made the playoffs finally in 2009.

    The way I see it, whether we like it or not, Yao is under contract this year. If there's a possibility of him returning, we should make a run for it. You can always rebuild once both Tmac and Yao are gone.

    By the way, everyone knows Yao's injured. We wont be able to trade him for prospects now.
     
  19. Teamwork

    Teamwork Member

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    100% agree. I like the way you put it. :)
     
  20. sbyang

    sbyang Member

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    A good 'blow it up' deal is the KG deal. People kill Mchale for that deal, but it's starting to look more even as time goes along. A horrible 'blow it up' deal is the Pau Gasol deal.

    In order to do a 'blow it up' deal, we need the other team to be close to a contender/just solid player away; or, the player in question is not fitting with his coach/teammates (maybe the best player on the team can't stand the guy); or, the player has a year left and is threatening to leave.

    So we should be looking to see if established guys like Bosh grow more and more unhappy, or if a young knuckhead like Beasley pisses off Riley enough to take 60 cents on the dollar. Miami already offered up Beasley for the #2, would Luis Scola + Brooks get that Beasley? It's an awful lot to give up and the guy is a clown, but he's an extremely talented clown that outplayed Blake Griffin in college head to head and was the #2 player drafted.
     

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