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the Chris Carter thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by awc713, Jul 3, 2015.

  1. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Because Carter's poor defense at 1B isn't worth what he's doing at the plate (hell, he's currently slugging at a Marwin Gonzalez level).

    Valbuena plays a solid 3B... and Marisnick is the Adam Everett of CF (a player that wins you games with his defense alone).

    I also hate the analogy... Schaub was far more consistent/productive than Carter has ever been (in general, hate the football to baseball to basketball comparisons).... and when he stopped being consistent, he was almost universally thrown under the bus.
     
  2. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Funny; I nearly posted something about Schaub being appreciably better and then thought of the firestorm and decided not to.

    Every sports town has a Matt Schaub; essentially, the guy the casual fan can gripe about without having to do a deep dive and really get their hands dirty analyzing the team. It's the talk-radio influence, where the mob mentality generates an easy-to-spot scapegoat. Carter is undoubtedly that guy right now. Gattis and Valbuena have not been appreciably better hitters this year - but you'll almost never hear anyone complain about either (Valbuena hits lots of HRs; Gattis drives in lots of runs - those still matter a lot to a lot of fans). Carter strikes out *a lot* and, while it shouldn't matter, he absolutely looks way too casual. Casual fans also hate lack of fire. Every coach and athlete must shoot fire out of every orifice 24/7.

    I'm encouraged that, after running Carter out there nearly every day for nearly three months, they seem to looking for plan Bs. This is such a golden opportunity for Singleton but... he just doesn’t look to have it.
     
  3. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    He had a big hit on Friday night.... and nobody hit on Saturday against Buchholz... then he sits on Sunday vs. the lefty.

    I do expect him to play consistently when they face right-handers... however not sure why Hinch has had him DH more than play 1B thus far.

    Perhaps they fear Carter being even more "out of it" and lackadaisical if he doesn't play the field? (not sure how that's even possible).

    I'd much rather have Singleton making those short-hop catches than Carter.
     
  4. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    He's on pace to strikeout more frequently than he did last year... he's K'ing 43% of the time and doing absolutely nothing around it. And I've noticed, for a team that's as joyous as this one, he looks sullen. I was hoping a better clubhouse enviornment + winning might be a nice kicker but... he just looks overwhelmed and on the verge of either quitting or going postal.

    Hopefully, it's just a bad start and he'll settle in. But, man... so far, not good...
     
  5. Baseballa

    Baseballa Member

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    I love advanced statistics, Moneyball, etc. and this goes against all of that, but I just hate the "feeling" I get when I realize we are starting to rally and Carter is up soon. "Lack of confidence" isn't a strong enough phrase for what I feel towards him.

    I know there are no statistics for "feeling" but I can't imagine Carter inspires much more confidence in his teammates than the random fan at home.
     
  6. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Man, that's quite the profile... after just 5 games.
     
    #26 Nick, Jul 6, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2015
  7. AUstrofan

    AUstrofan Member

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    From what little I've seen of Singleton - and it's early - he is about the same sort of hitter as Carter with about the same sort of numbers and not as good of a first baseman.

    I'd rather see Gonzalez at first than either, for defense if nothing more. I suppose you stick with Carter for potential if his bat comes to life, but there are way too many streaky sluggers in this lineup and it's making some average pitchers look better than they are.
     
  8. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Do they look appreciably different from his 95 from last year?

    There's no bigger Singleton champion on this board than me but... Not a promising start.
     
  9. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Your Tweety Bird dance just cost us a run

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    Forgetting the 5 this year given that he could have grown, what I am also considering is AAA this year vs. last. I don't like that his #'s down there look very similar, as well. His K% went down by ~10% (i.e. from 22% to 20%), so that's something...but not big enough to show definite growth. And at the same time, his BB% went down by the same amount.

    I'd be much more comfortable with this start if he had suddenly improved his AAA #'s significantly. But for all we heard (and for all those massive games we talked about down there), his stat line is the same as 2014 AAA.
     
  10. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    Why doesn't Gattis play 1B sometimes?
    Oh, because his defense sucks harder than Carter's.

    I'm not a Carter guy over Gattis either.... just pointing out the flaw in your argument.
     
  11. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I respect that he didn't sulk or pout after not making the team; there's that. And his AAA #s are *good*. But, yeah - generally, I just get the sense the team isn't overall pleased with him or he likely would have been up sooner.
     
  12. sealclubber1016

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    In 2012 Carter started the year with a .974 OPS through 51 games.

    In his "consistent" year of 2013 he had a 36 game stretch where he posted an OPS of .959, and a 39 game stretch later where he posted an OPS of .927

    In 2014 he had a 55 game stretch where he posted an OPS on 1.035

    Earlier this season he had a 41 stretch where he posted an OPS of .906

    Carter has shown repeatedly that he is more than capable of going off for an extended stretch, last season wasn't an isolated incident.

    July 6 OPS

    2013 .734
    2014 .695
    2015 .711

    Tell me again how he's so much worse this year, and this season is "different"
     
  13. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I think fans need to respect defensive position a bit more; lots of "put so-so there" suggestions with no previous experience. Lowrie, Gattis and Valbuena, IIRC, have 8 total games of experience at 1B. Granted, Gonzalez had zero before this season so it's not impossible.

    But I wonder if, because the Astros have a bit of history of position-switching (Biggio C-to-2B-to-CF; Bagwell 3B-to-1B; Berkman 1B-to-OF-to-1B... even Jimmy Wynn came up as 2B...) fans maybe take it more for granted that a player can just up and play a brand new position. It's certainly possible. But doing that in-season is tough because they just don't have a lot of time to work on it.
     
  14. thesonofsam

    thesonofsam Member

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    Part of it has to do with we have had years of Carter doing this. Fatigue with him has set in. Plus Gattis and Valbuena are at least collecting RBIs and homers.
     
  15. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    He only played 67 games that entire season.... I know everybody loves to breakdown Carter's seasons in these little snippets that show how good he is, but you don't need to do that here.

    "Consistent" in the fact that his low was never close to what it was in 2014 and what it is now.

    Its well established that this was the "torrid" hot streak after the "torrid" cold streak. This 55 game stretch also represents an outlier in terms of his career production.

    Was this really early? Or more recent? Either way, hasn't really made a dent in his overall season performance, which is down.

    Expecting that "degree" of being that good, to overcome how bad he was then... and is now... is a stretch. It very well could be an isolated incident.

    This team is a contender now... and they just lost their best overall offensive weapon other than Correa. More than willing to withstand the experiment during a rebuilding year or if he's surrounded by a stacked lineup.

    If there's a better option at first, they need to consider it.
     
  16. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I think his bad stretches have been more frequent and, well, more bad. You mentioned a 41-game stretch earlier this year*... well, his first 41 games of this year produced: .157/.265/.321/.587.

    * Which 41-game stretch, btw? I'm trying to piece it together and finding it difficult. He's had some 820-ish stretches... but .906?
     
  17. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Pretty sure Lowire, Valbuena... and even Gattis if he had to (a true longshot)... would have no problem playing a competent 1B just like Marwin has thus far. (btw, Lowrie with 11 games by himself there).

    You keep going back to "how many games have they played there" argument... but when were these guys on teams that had "better" options at their respective traditional positions?

    Lowrie has always been the best SS or 3B on the roster for his previous teams... same goes for Valbuena... if that is no longer the case when everybody is healthy, they should be able to field an "easier" position than what they're accustomed to.

    Its not taking it for granted... nobody is asking Castro, Conger, or any of the outfielders to switch from catcher to first.... but history says that a solid corner or middle infielder should be able to handle first.

    Hell, Carlos Lee handled first.
     
  18. sealclubber1016

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    I was a little stunned myself LOL

    From May 6 to Jun 18 he slashed .254/.383/.523, and had a 36/107 pace.
     
  19. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I don't follow how the later invalidates the former... They have limited experience playing 1B and making any kind of defensive transition in-season is difficult because there simply isn't as much time to practice*. Help me understand what opportunity has to do with that? It only underscores their lack of experience, doesn't it?

    I don't necessarily worry that they can't; but the knee-jerk reaction of a lot of fans seems to be play everybody anywhere, and that's probably not terribly realistic. Luis Valbuena has never played 1B in MLB.

    *Lowrie is a bit of an excpetion as, assuming he's not traveling with the team, can actually spend his days learning/pracitcing a new position and can even play 1B when he eventually rehabs.
     
    #39 Hey Now!, Jul 6, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2015
  20. sealclubber1016

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    I agree with this whole heartedly, but until Lowrie comes back there's not. Singleton has been god awful offensively and defensively. he should be splitting time with Tucker until one of them earns playing time.

    Carter has a track record of ultimately posting a good OPS, how ever frustrating his path may be.
     

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