The chase for Swift I know we are all really excited about how the Rockets are currently doing and it is kind of an odd time to think much about the summer and the Rockets options of improving the team, but something significant has happened with these deadline deals that makes the Rockets chances at getting Swift this summer a larger possibility (even though it still is a longshot). And that factor is the Nets acquiring Cliff Robinson. Remember, the Nets had 2 TEs. They had a 10M one from the Kerry Kittles to Clippers trade and the 5M one from the VC Raptors trade. They used the 5M one on taking Elden Campbell off wavers to claim him before Detroit could get him back. And now with the Cliff Robinson trade they just broke up their 10M TE!!!! Now that TE is down to around 5M! That is HUGE!! If the Nets hadn't of done that, then this summer they could have approached Jerry West and said that they would give him a 1st round pick + a large portion of that 10M TE in a S&T for Swift. Since West has NO control over what Swift does, West probably takes this deal and runs with it. He sends Swift to the East and gets a 1st round pick for nothing since Swift is an UNRestricted FA. Now that the Nets dont have that 10M TE they cant make that move. Right now Houston's 5M TE is the largest or equal to the largest TE out there right now. This summer there wont be too many teams with cap room, and the teams that DO have cap room probably will be 1) trying to sign their own guys or 2) have other needs. Of the teams with significant cap room (Charlotte, Atlanta, Cleveland, Clippers, Sonics) I think the ONLY teams that are serious contenders for Swift in my opinion is Charlotte and Atlanta. And of those teams I think Charlotte is trying to save money and Atlanta is looking more for a TRUE center like Dalembert and a PG like Watson. Swift is more of a PF and Atlanta has Al Harrington and Josh Smith as their forwards of the future. What this means now is that Swift destinations are left to 1) teams with the MLE, 2) Swift resigning with the Grizzlies and 3) the Grizzlies trying to engineer a S&T for Swift with a salary inline with his market value which probably is staring at 8M per to a team and get expiring contracts or some equal talent back. I know West cringes at the idea of Swift (an asset) walking away and the Grizzlies get NOTHING in return. It probably makes West cringe even more knowing that Swift could go to a rival Western conference team! But I dont see Swift resigning with the Grizzlies. Have you seen their payroll? It is huge! Way over 70M. Are they willing to sign Swift even though he is their BACKUP PF? It will be interesting to see what they do. Other FAs on that team are Wells and Watson and I have a feeling they both will walk. With the salary situation in mind, I cant see the Grizzlies work a S&T because then they would get back the same salary that they didnt want to give to Swift in the first place. So that makes no sense. It would only make sense if they could do a S&T with Swift where the Griz got an asset like a 1st rounder in return but not take back any salary. And they can only do that with a team under the cap or a team with a BIG TE. And the BIG TE team just used their only resource so that is gone! That really leaves the MLE left for Swift. He would be a HUGE bargin at that price as his market value is around 8M (Okur, Foyle, Boozer, Camby etc). Anyway, the Nets using that TE got me excited. It ups our chances are Swift, even though I am not holding my breath on it. But getting Swift on this team would be a HUGE addition in my opinion and would be a GREAT value at the MLE. I am sure Swift would be disappointed he wouldn't be getting the money he wants and deserves, but in Houston he would be a STARTING PF which is more than he can say right now playing behind Pau. And he would be part of the CORE of Tmac and Yao. A front line for the next decade of Tmac, Swift and Yao. That's perhaps the best frontline in the league!
That is the dream anyhow. I personally think Swift is going to be like most guys in the league - the almighty dollar will call his shots. Whoever pays the most gets him. But if the MLE is going to get it done, you have to figure that Houston is numero uno on his list. - Close to his home of Louisianna. Obviously New Orleans is closer, but that's a new franchise for the city (and a terrible team). - The Rockets were his favorite team growing up, even though there are no Rudys or Hakeems tied to the franchise anymore. - The Rockets are an excellent team with a young core duo of stars around his age. - The Rockets desperately need someone at his position.
When you consider the fact that A.) The Rockets are a respected organization in a big market (due largely to Yao, but the third highest grossing team in NBA definitely makes us a big market team in my opinion) that is home to many NBA players in the off-season. B.) the Rockets are playing great basketball despite their holes and C.) Almost every player in the league has an ego big enough to believe they're the one piece that would put us over the top I think it's not unreasonable to speculate that most every free agent in the league in the MLE range will be looking at Houston as their destination. So to me the only question is, "Will Stromile Swift end up signing for the MLE?". If he gets offered more by Atlanta, Charlotte or whoever else may be under the cap, I'm sure he'll take it. If not, I definitely think we're the best choice.
Also, it's interesting that Swift is getting just 22 minutes a night in Memphis. I still say money talks, so if the Grizzlies pony up the cash, he'll probably stay .... but I mean, with the depth they have, those minutes don't stand to increase anytime soon I don't believe. His shooting percentage (44%), for a PF, concerns me, but he's shot 48+% in other seasons. It doesn't look like his rebounding numbers, even on a 30-35 minute a night basis, look unbelievable either, but who knows. It's his shotblocking and athleticism which is so attractive for us. Here's a good article from a few weeks ago on Swift's play (which of course centers around "the dunk" on Yao). http://www.nola.com/sports/t-p/index.ssf?/base/sports-16/110715475253930.xml Memphis' Swift wowing opponents Shreveport native has improved this year Monday, January 31, 2005 By John Reid Staff writer The Memphis Grizzlies' Stromile Swift showed on one play against the Houston Rockets earlier this month why he might get plenty of attention from teams, including the Hornets, when he becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer. Rockets 7-foot-6 center Yao Ming had the lane blocked and was set on not letting Swift get up a shot. But Swift, who is 6-9, took two steps before dunking the ball in Yao's face. It left Yao playing tentatively, unsure how to limit Swift for the remainder of the game. Swift, who plays center and power forward, scored 18 points on 6-of-9 shooting against Yao in a 99-80 Grizzlies victory. Since Swift, who left LSU after his sophomore season, was the second overall pick in the 2000 NBA draft by the then-Vancouver Grizzlies, he has ravaged opponents with his forceful dunks and shot-blocking skills. Yet, the primary question about his play is whether he can do more than just dunk. But Swift has shown ability to make hook shots and 10-foot turnaround jumpers. He hopes to make those types of shots today at 7 p.m. when the Grizzlies play the Hornets at New Orleans Arena. "I know that I've been able to have a little success in the league just by outrunning and outjumping people," Swift said by telephone last week. "But during the past few summers, I've been putting up a lot of jump shots. "My focus is to get better every year, but my progress has not gone as fast like I expected. But I'm improving, and that's all I can ask." Houston coach Jeff Van Gundy said that in every game against the Grizzlies this season, Swift's athleticism has disrupted the Rockets. In a 90-87 loss to Houston in November, Swift beat Yao so badly on drives in the post that Yao could only foul. Swift made 12-of-13 free throws and scored 18 points. Yao fouled out after scoring 14 points. "His quickness and athleticism have really hurt us," Van Gundy said. "But again, I don't know if that translates to every game, every opponent. It will be interesting to see where it projects over time with him." Swift has been asked by Grizzlies coach Mike Fratello to step up since leading scorer Pau Gasol went on the injured list this month with an injured foot. Swift has scored in double figures in four of the past five games as a starter. "Since Pau went out, I've just tried to come in and do my part by bringing energy and just playing hard," said Swift, a Shreveport native. "We have a lot of guys on this team who can play. If one guy goes down, there is always someone to fill in. Coach Fratello isn't that much different from Coach (Hubie) Brown (who retired in December). Both of them stress defense a lot." Swift is expected to get offers from several NBA teams during this upcoming free-agency period. Swift was a restricted free agent last season when he signed a one-year, $5.9 million deal to remain with the Grizzlies. "I think the sky is the limit for Stromile, because I don't see why he can't be like (Phoenix Suns forward) Amare Stoudemire with the ability he has," said the Hornets' P.J. Brown, who will be matched against Swift tonight. One of Swift's most productive stretches came Dec. 7, when he had a season-high six blocks against the New York Knicks; the next night, he had five against the Atlanta Hawks. In his first four seasons, Swift has averaged more than 80 blocks. After 41 games, this season, he leads the Grizzlies with 72. Last season, he had a team-high 118 blocks. "Each year, he seems to add something to his game," Hornets coach Byron Scott said. "But I thought when he first came into the league, he was just a dunker. Now, he's a rebounder and doing much better shooting the ball. I think he's getting comfortable and confident in his game."
Let me further say, I VERY MUCH believe that Stromile will take the largest paycheck available. So he will be open to S&Ts and signing big money deals with under the cap teams. I dont see Stro taking LESS Money just to play with the Rockets. I dont think ANY "young" players do that these days. That is reserved for the vets trying to go after the ring AFTER they have already made their big payday. The only chance we have at Stro is if the MARKET is bare and the dollars just arent out there for Stro. I think if everything is "even" in terms of dollars out there, then Houston becomes very attractive to him. That's what I am hoping.
I think Swift at his age would be crazy not to go after the money and thats what I think he will do. Would love to see him in a rocket uniform but Im not going to hold my breath. Can you imagine the shotblocking and the quick defensive rotations with him playing on the current rocket team.
Clutch, I agree on his minutes. On the Grizz and the system they use he just isnt going to get those minutes. He is kind of in a 3 man rotation of Pau, Wright and Stro at the PF/C spot. And the Grizz are looking to try to get a C next to Pau. So Stro really isnt in their long range plans unless they try to USE Stro to get that C. But who is out there? I think in Houston Stro's FG% and rebounding go WAY up. In our opponent's game plans he would be an afterthought on a team with Tmac and Yao. And Stro's rebounding isnt high right now because the Grizzlies as a TEAM are very good rebounding wise. In Houston Stro would gobble up boards since Yao isnt much of a rebounder.
I don't see how the TE will be a factor. If Swift is resigned to taking the MLE, then we won't need the TE. If West agrees to a S&T, the TE won't be big enough to cover the $8 million or so Swift would want in such a deal, and IIRC, the TE can't be combined with a player for a player (although maybe I'm wrong on this). If I'm not wrong, the only way the TE gets used in a S&T is if other contracts are added to the mix, like - Spoon, Gaines, pick for Swift TE - Cardinal Would love to see that happen though. Hypothetically, if we were to give Swift a wink, wink type deal, how would that have to happen? Three years at the MLE to get his bird-rights?
I also think he goes for the paycheck. If he signed with Houston, the Rockets would have a dynasty for the next 5-7 years.
I still think getting Swift is a pipedream. Way too many ifs involved to get from point A to point B. Donyell Marshall is a more realistic possibility imo, even though he's not in the age range we want, he would be an ideal rotation player on this team. Not too many pf options via fagency this year, so if we want him we need to get to recruiting him early on. There are quite a few fa pg stopgap options though. Who knows what the draft will bring, if it brings anything at all.
I'd do that deal in a second. Then we are set and can upgrade the backcourt with the MLE and our future draft picks. Combine this with us getting rid of MoT for DA and we have a championship contender and in my opinion with Van Gundy at the controls and getting us up to par defensively, we should be getting the trophy back in Clutch City.
Swift shys away from contact. He has underachieved his whole NBA career; but at the same token, he is still young. Bottom line: right now, he's not what the Rockets are looking for.
And in that area, we're greatly aided by this happening to be a very good year for decent PF/Cs. No bona fide stars, but a lot of good ones: Restricted: Eddy Curry Tyson Chandler Udonis Haslem Reggie Evans Eddie Griffin** (I'm actually not sure on him being restricted, CBA language is vague. Don't think he'll be a Rocket again either way) Samuel Dalembert Kwame Brown Unrestricted: Zydrunas Ilgauskas Donyell Marshall Shareef Abdur-Rahim Stromile Swift Antoine Walker Teams with capspace are more likely to chase the 5s (Ziggy, Dalembert, Curry) due to a more limited supply 7 footers. I think Abdur-Rahim is a guy who has kind of flown under the radar for such a big name, but if after years of losing, he wants to win, I'd take him on this team for the MLE. He's only 3 years older than Swift. He's not a great defender/shot blocker, but he's a good rebounder, and a terrific scorer who can hit the midrange shots with great consistency and punish single coverage.
stro will not come to houston, sadly. i would've loved to have seen what yao and stro can do together defensively. he's full of energy and can posterize basically anyone in the league. but he will take the top bidder, and i don't think it matters if it is either atlanta or neworleans.. losing won't matter to him. he's gotta make the green. and besides, i love how juwon has been playing lately. and i don't think stro can hit those jumpers that juwon consistently hits for us. it's almost automatic when he's free off of a pick and roll or a double team.
how is he not what the rockets are looking for? the guy is quick atheltic and young and can be a major component next to Yao and McGrady. He can rebound and block shots and has developed a decent 15 foot jumper. Imagine having Cato back, but younger,quicker, better shot blocker and someone who isnt a liability on the offensive end. I dont think he has necessarily underachieved, he doesnt get to log many minutes in memphis with their rotation but he has been very efficient in his play. As for shying away from contact he isnt the traditional back to basket player but that is not a huge concern since we have Yao in the middle. I think a player of Swift's caliber could thrive in houston. Hopefully CD and Les can make a serious push for him this offseason. As long as our max offer (including any s&t with the TE) will be just as good as other teams, I think we have a really good shot of landing Swift
I wouldn't want to bail them out of Cardinal's contract. Though SamFisher would. Your point about TE vs. MLE is dead on, though- through the TE we could give up to a 5.58 mill base. The MLE last year was 4.9, and will probably increase some, to 5.1 or 5.2 mill. That 400K base doesn't mean much, but a S/T would allow Swift 12.5% increases vs. 10% increases (at least under the current CBA). A 6 year contract starting at 5.58 mill with 12.5% raises comes to 43.94 mill. A 6 year contract contract starting at 5.15 mill with 10% raises comes to 38.625 mill. Is a solid extra 5 mill over 6 years a deal breaker? I dunno. Via sign and trade, we could also give Swift a 7th year under the current rules, though I'm not sure that'd be the best idea regardless.
I'm already used to Swift on the Rockets because I traded for him on NBA live and we have won 6 straight championships. But back to reality.. Swift and T-mac are the same age.. We'd have the foundation set for a longggg time! He's quick and athletic, can be a monster on the boards and in the paint.. I get all giggly inside when imagining him in JVG defense and even in our offense. Our defense and offense works well with quickness and he has a lot of it. i'd do whatever it takes to get him on our team. Outside of trading Yao or t-mac of course.
At first I was thinking a more sensible deal for both Memphis and Jersey would be Swift, White Chocolate for Jason Kidd. That would give Memphis the superstar they've been lacking and Jersey a core of J-Will, Jefferson, Carter, and Swift. But then I realized that both teams want to cut salary, so unless one team is willing to pony up their TEs, expiring contracts, it probably doesn't fly.
I'd take a pass on Rahim. He's a guy in the same mold as Howard/Mot. Rahim is a better rebounder (although Howard has been a beast on the board the past few games) but the rest of his game is comprable to Howard. They are both midrange shooters with some post skills, and average to below average defensively. In my mind, Rahim would just be a slight incremental upgrade over Howard. If Swift goes elsewhere, I think our next target should be Donyell Marshall. He'd be like a better defending/rebounding Padge. And we've seen how smooth the offense can look with Padge in the game. Swift would be by far the best signing, but Marshall would be a pretty nice consolation prize.
