Since a good portion of the members seem to be on suicide watch and another group is going vigilate over the idea that all of the stars are gone and we're doomed I though that should point out that the CBA rules will change in 2013. The new rule changes could provide opportunites for teams who manage their cap and roster well to acquire talent that other teams have to dump for salary purposes. It may also mean that it's much wiser to wait and spend our capspace/assets in 2013 rather than this offseason when there's going to be a ton of teams with cap room and we suddenly have no Howard and no CP3 available. As most everyone knows the new 2011 NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) made some significant changes in the way that NBA teams can do business. In order to allow teams reasonable time to comply with the new rules, all of the new rules do not go into effect until the 2013 season. Currently the new CBA hasn't changed the way teams do business that much but when all of the rules are in place starting in 2013 then it could greatly change the whole landscape of the NBA. Basically it's going to get really expensive for teams that are over the luxury tax threshold and it is going to become much harder for those teams to acquire additonal players. This will make it much harder for teams to put together Miami-like superteams and it may cause teams to have to get rid of some of the talent that they already have. The 2013 rules will close many of the loopholes that allowed teams like the Heat to sign 3 max players and still put talent around them. Here's some comments from Mark Cuban regarding how the 2013 rule may change the market and talks about the merits of waiting until 2013 to take advantage of those new rules: Here's some excerpts from an excellent article that Larry Coon did for ESPN which explains some of the changes that will kick in for the 2013 season. These changes certainly don't guarentee anything for the Rockets but it does open up new potential options for acquiring players. Many teams were hoarding cap space to make a run at Howard, Williams and CP3 this summer. Now Howard and Paul are off the market and who knows about Williams? Rather than just spending their money this summer and most likely overpaying you may see teams (Rockets included) waiting until 2013 to better utilize their capspace and assets. I just wanted to point these changes out as they may effect our long term objectives. Who knows we may not be doomed afterall.
Good post. Also, it is much harder for players to leave their current franchises, as the % of raises for staying and years available by staying versus leaving makes it a palpable difference. If you want to leave as a free agent now, you lose about $30 million in guaranteed money on your existing contract. Jerry West remarked that he would call the players bluff, and I think he is right on the money. They and their agents are not going to want to leave all that guaranteed money on the table. It will be interesting to see if DWill leaves New Jersey or if he tries to force a S&T and they flinch, IMO, they should let him walk, and take that $30 million haircut.
The "inflationary" free agency market for 2012 has one glaring exception: a max level player (Deron Williams), since such a player will not earn more or less than the max no matter what market we are in. It means, however, that for a guy like, say, Kris Humphries, a team is likely to overpay him this offseason.
Maybe. Will Deron Williams actually become a FA this off season? It seems like he and Howard had a plan, so is that plan still in place? Does Williams sign and extention in NJ because he knows that Dwight is coming in a year? Does he also not opt out of his deal and play one more year in NJ and then he and Dwight are free to pair up with any team with cap space that they like in '13 ? Or is Williams now on his own and he's given up the idea of playing with Howard? If Deron Williams does hit the market and the Rockets or most other teams have the chance to acquire him then they do it without thinking. Unfortunately that's a longshot for the Rockets and most other teams too. Regardless of where Willaims ends up you're going to have a substantial number of teams with significant cap space and no superstar to spend that money on. That's when, as you suggest, you are going to see the Chris Humphries of the world get over paid. That doesn't sound like a good time to be a buyer.
Wow going in there was Love, Howard CP3 Dwill... Now all of these players have been advised by their agents staying is the best route financially. You get another raise at 10.5% as opposed to the cheap ass 5% raise you get under a new contract. That 10.5% raise is compounded across their next big contract and in the end adds an additional 35 mil. If they stay with their same team that becomes and additional 65 mil. Expect DWill to follow suit and signs another year. And for all the teams that cleared cap room they will be fighting over Dragic and Ilyasova. Cuban knows this to be true that's why he is making this statement but he didn't know it when he traded Chandler. Got to wonder if he did would he have ever let him go. Dallas clearly had another year to compete for a championship. That window is gone and I do not care if he has cap space now or every year from here on out. The new CBA makes it impossible for a star to walk away from his team without losing millions. Now more than ever the best way to get a star is to tank and draft one. Here's another note all the players who signed on for 1 more year have showed their hand and made it clear money is more valuable than playing for the team of their choice. Don't expect that to change in 2013 when their teams can offer them an extra 30 mil. Teams (not named LA or NY) waiting for that elusive young star to throw away millions to sign with them don't hold your breath. In the future the only stars transferring teams will be players on the downside of their careers with big contracts. Anyone want Kobe and his 30 million dollar contract. My previous thought of trading Howard is even more remote. Howard may bluff he will leave for nothing but if Orlando is smart they will call his bluff and threaten to trade him to Houston and he will the extension. Howards not going anywhere. That was however the point of the new CBA.
It certainly is advantageous for players to stay with their current teams but the flip side is that some teams may need to dump players for financial reasons. If Miami is getting killed in taxes and they only have the mini exception and minimum salary to throw at new players then what do they do? Do you end up trading a Chris Bosh to free up cap space and ease the tax burdon or to be able to fill out your roster with something other than minimum or near minimum guys? If you're the Lakers and you end up paying $50M in taxes and you can't offer more than the mini $2.5M to any new players and you can't participate in a sign and trade then what do you do? Under the new rules Kobe's contract is pretty much untradeable so what are your options? Trade Gasol or Bynum? I think we are going to see more moves like you see in today's NFL where teams end up having to let good players go for financial reasons. If you have one of the few true superstars then you hang on to them any way you can but that next tier of guys might now be available. Under these new rules can a team like OKC afford to pay Harden? Now we know why Morey was willing to take a chance on renting a star. He's betting that they won't leave that kind of money on the table.
Looks like Dragic is going to leave because there will be teams willing to overpay him and Morey won't.
how much value added $s does the big media city really bring? would love to see someone call a $30M bluff.
In the new cba, how long do you need to sign with a team to get bird rights? Is it possible to sign a 2 or 3 year deal with an Eto at the end of the first year and then with the bird rights get a huge 5 year contract. Basically can you cheat the system?
The wild card is what you might call the Adidas syndrome. Like you point out, big markets such as LA or NY will still have an advantage. That is, a player taking less money in salary to go to a big market, knowing he will make it up and more in the shoe deal. Rose's $200 million deal is an eye opener. Other factors may also mitigate the lost revenue from leaving your team, to a lesser degree, such as going to a state with no state income tax such as Texas or Florida. Excellent thread, by the way, Aelliot.
Excellent thread and replies! This is how the GARM was and should be again. I’ve definitely learned a bit more about the CBA and its future effects on teams. Now, if we can get some Bima action in here to project on the Rockets’ future I’m set!
Did you think that telling me the Rockets should do nothing until the 2013 offseason was going to get me off the ledge?!!?
I'm interested in this as well. If it were something short term, for example, a 2 year deal to get full bird rights, I wonder if some star players would take that risk of a shorter deal with a lot less guaranteed money, in order to go where they want and eventually get that huge max salary contract.
Great thread man. I have been thinking about this for some time. The way I see it if Miami doesn't win a ring either this year or next year, there's gonna be a call for big changes there. There's no way they are going to attract decent bigs because they just can't pay them enough. They are going to be limited to the over-the-hill gang or young 2nd round type bigs that aren't really competitive in the league overall. Their only chance to get a decent big is to: 1.) Get lucky, lucky, lucky with a 2nd round draft pick or 2.) trade one of the big 3 (probably Bosh) for a decent center and a decent PF. If they don't win a ring, they are going to be stuck in no man's land, paying big luxury tax, and not winning it all. They've got to win it all to offset the cost of all the taxes that are coming. Looking forward, this is why I was so caught up with the opportunity to pair DWill and Dwight here in Houston. A premier PG and the premier center in the league leaves plenty of room to be surrounded by very, very good players at SG, SF, and PF...and a decent bench. With the way the league is going regarding the perimeter play, if you get a guy that can stroke the J and finish at the rim at one of your 2 swing man spots (mediocre contract because the rules make it so that there is a plethora of swing men who can do this effectively), then you get a tenacious defender/glue guy at the other swing spot (even lower pay because defense/glue guys are not regarded the same as offensive players), and then at the 4, you get more of a perimeter oriented tall guy that can spread the floor with the 3 and finish at the rim, while being athletic enough to help defend, then you've really got something. Two max contracts = $35 mill one star player = $10 mill two MLE guys = $5 mill a piece That's $55 million in your top guys, still below the cap and much better suited to add a couple 3 nice bench pieces to before you even hit the luxury tax line. From there on, you have a guy like Darryl sifting through all the talent and constantly picking up underrated winners in the 2nd round that can be signed for minimum money with as low as a 2-year guarantee. When you account for old contracts like Kobe's and Dirk's, those guys hog up even more of the cap. They can only realistically add one more max deal to begin with. Because if they add 2, they've got to clear out the whole roster, ala Miami, except now, by the time they do that, they're playing with minimum salary guys for the rest of the roster. In all reality, it's really the top 6-7 guys that make the team. You can't have 3 great guys and nothing but rejects. Prove me wrong, Miami, by winning a championship. I have my doubts. Don't care how great their regular season record is. When the playoffs roll around, the games slow down, and teams go to the hole much more often. So, Miami goes to the hole and they are met by quality bigs. Their opponents go to the hole after blowing past the big 3 and there's nothing but cool whip down there. Big difference. Dallas tore them a new one with multiple perimeter players though not as good as Lebron or DWade individually or collectively, they went 5 deep out there and they could all Finish and shoot in the half-court game. Didn't matter that lebron and Wade were out there defending them. They could still finish and get a good look. That's because the rules make it virtually impossible for bigger perimeter guys to be able to stick with and shut down smaller perimeter guys. Therefore, there is a premium on bigs. Even more so than in the past. There's always been a premium on bigs because they are simply rarer. It's much more rare to find a 7 footer that can play at a high level than it is to find a 6' nothing guard that can play at a high level. But combined with the perimeter rules and now the shrinking and more restricted cap, it is even more so. MJ and Pippen were the exception to traditional team building. Their team was constructed uniquely to most other NBA champions. Now, in this era of rule changes combined with the more restrictive cap, it appears that building a team to compete for a championship requires more skilled bigs than ever before. With that being said, the cap rules are going to become so restrictive that I don't see how any team going forward can sign 3 guys to max deals and expect to build a championship competitive 5, much less a championship competitive 7. When a guy like Cuban, a notorious overspender, pulls his wings in, we'd better pay attention. Of course, Morey already seen this coming before the lockout. We need to trust morey's talent evaluation and talent valuation process. We will be winners going forward.
I should not even be weighing in here - too many heavy weights with too much knowledge and understanding for a light weight like me. But I posted on another thread earlier (the one where everyone was whining and crying about Williams obviously signing with Dallas this summer) that I just did not see any way that Dallas could sign Williams and maintain a team around him given the new CBA. It looked to me like it would be Haywood, Nowitski, Williams, Marion, Beaubois and then about 8 scrubs. But I just did not have the understanding to back up my intuition. Thank you all for the enlightenment. Cheers
Where Cuban's theory falls apart is that the biggest markets like LA have recently insulated themselves from becoming too preoccupied with periodically violating the luxury tax threshold in the future. The Lakers for example, through the recent negotiation of a huge cable television network contract worth billions of dollars will now if push comes to shove, pay the absolute worst of those penalties 4 or 5 times over in any season where they come into play. Reality is the huge market teams will fall in line with the cap provisions until there is a justifiable reason and opportunity to break the mold and then they'll spring for it, just as they do today. Because they can. An argument can be made that this could lead to an even greater disparity between "haves" and "have nots" because now no matter what, the "have nots" could never hope to chase a model that would take them into luxury tax peril. I guess they could operate decent businesses living off the divided luxury tax assets though. But what may point is, is that the "haves" won't just sit around on their hands and let their products and their brand become diluted because the league is on a bent to force unilateral parity. I'm convinced Stern knows this all tto well and has known it for some time, the only true answer here is a forced hard cap, but you can't put that spilled milk back in the bottle with the players association. All this luxury tax nonsense is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
I'm a novice on this stuff. Where does the "Luxury Tax" money go? Is it redistributed to the teams under the cap?
No. Redistributed to teams under the luxury tax line. I'm out of date with the new stuff, but if it hasn't changed, then it works as following. Every team over the luxury tax line pays a dollar for dollar fine. That fine is then split into 30 equal packages. Every team under lux tax line receives 1 package. The remaining packages go to the league. I'm sure there's a change to the amount one has to pay - but not sure what that is!
