Houston: Looking for its alpha What makes the Rockets’ case so interesting is that they are, in many ways, a mirror image of the Magic. But Orlando knows who its alpha dogs are and is trying to find a way to optimize the rest of the roster around them; Houston’s issue is that it has enviable depth and talent but has yet to settle on a leading man. That issue was underscored by the Rockets’ lack of reliable shot creation against the Warriors. They were able to get Fred VanVleet on a heater for a couple of games, and Jalen Green erupted for 38 points in Game 2, but their guards aren’t consistently able to beat elite defenses. That put a lot of pressure on All-Star big man Alperen Şengün, who destroys smalls on switches and is a good passer out of double-teams but showed in his matchup with Draymond Green that he can’t consistently generate points one-on-one versus an elite big man. I should point out that Şengün might not be that far away. He has been in the NBA for four years but doesn’t turn 23 until July. His biggest weakness is a floater shot that he scored with consistently in 2023-24 but let him down badly this season. If he can regain his touch from roughly 10 feet — a place where opponents let him have any shot he wanted for most of the second half of the season — then we’re having a different discussion. Similarly, Şengün’s one-legged set shot from 15 feet — dubbed “The Flamingo” by Rockets play-by-play man Craig Ackerman — can be a weapon that sets up his overpowering drives to the rim if he just makes it more consistently. He’s also leaving way too much money on the table at the free-throw line (69.3 percent and 69.2 percent the past two seasons), which cost Houston in Game 3 against Golden State in particular. The good news here for Houston is that it didn’t overreach on Şengün’s contract extension, paying him $187 million over the next five years. His $33.9 million cap hit is nearly identical to Green’s $33.3 million and means the Rockets carry a lot of cap flexibility going forward. Additionally, at his salary, Şengün becomes a bargain if he’s the second option on an elite team. The other key piece to Houston’s cap strategy is VanVleet’s $44.9 million team option for next season. With few other players in the free-agent market, the Rockets seem primed to be able to decline the option and then re-sign him to a longer deal at lower annual money. Doing so would give them enough below the tax apron to re-sign Steven Adams and use some exception money on a shooter. After that, we get to the hard decisions. Houston has so many high draft picks and coveted young players on its roster that the decisions on whom to pay and how much over the next three years are likely to be crucial. At some point, the Rockets seem almost certain to blast through the tax aprons, but they’ve worked to push back that moment. Those decisions start with the guys who aren’t even getting in the rotation right now. Reed Sheppard was the third pick in the 2024 draft but hardly played this season. Cam Whitmore has killed it in the last two summer leagues before retreating to the end of the Houston bench for the winter. And did I mention the Rockets could win the draft lottery this year? (They have a pick swap with Phoenix, which has a 3.8 percent chance of landing No. 1 and a 17.8 percent chance of hitting the top four, although it is more likely to end up as the ninth pick.) Houston has key decisions coming on extensions for Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason. Smith was the third pick in the 2022 draft, and his shooting theoretically offers an important weapon, but an inability to play center and a limited dribble game have wiped away a lot of his theoretical value. (In the Golden State series, he could barely get through a couple of bounces to back down a smaller player without losing his handle.) Eason, meanwhile, can be erratic in half-court situations but is a dynamic force with his defense and transition game; alas, he overlaps heavily with rising star Amen Thompson and somewhat with starter Dillon Brooks. This takes us back to the leading man issue. The Rockets might be skittish about trading for an A-list talent when Thompson or Şengün might develop enough to take over at some point. Meanwhile, Jalen Green was actually their leading scorer this year and is only 23. Sure, he might be the worst player ever to lead a 52-win team in scoring, but his athletic gifts are obvious, and he’s improved every year. We might be singing a different tune about him a year from now. But Green’s extension seemed set up as much to be the matching salary in a blockbuster trade as it did to make him a centerpiece for the Rockets, and that’s particularly true if they can land another guard in the draft and Sheppard shows himself worthy of extended minutes in his second season. Houston also can put more assets into a trade than any team this side of Oklahoma City. I already mentioned the possibilities of a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade, but the Rockets also could be players for somebody like Devin Booker — via the two unprotected Phoenix picks they own in 2027 and 2029 — or virtually anyone else they’re interested in engaging on. While Kevin Durant’s age would seem to make less sense, the inevitable reality is that some superstar who fits Houston’s timeline will become unhappy at some point in the next 12 months. Houston’s cap and asset sheet is pounce-ready; virtually any combination of players and assets can work in a deal depending on the tastes of their trade partner and the status of the player in question. This season, however, shows that the time for patience is over. Houston can keep this group together and make the playoffs every year ad infinitum, but it seems unlikely a playoff-level leading man who can drag them into June will emerge from this group. Between now and the next trade deadline, the mission in Space City is to use Houston’s superior asset trove to find the right one. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/63...source=athletic_targeted_email&userId=6559290
I want Amen to be that guy. If he could just develop a respectable shot. He seems to operate decently within the mid-range game about 15-feet in and his shot did not look that bad when taking those jumpers. If he could just be respectable from the perimeter, 33%, he could really help us out. His dribbling seemed to improved a lot throughout the season, so he has the skills to get into the paint. His all team defense already makes him super valuable to the Rockets whether he develops into our alpha player or not.
I’m a bit of a contrarian (in terms of what the next move is). When the entire world is salivating at the number of assets you hold, it’s inevitable that the expected trade packages are lopsided / over-valued. So maybe the best move, if that indeed happens, IS to stand pat / marginal moves to set yourself up for bigger ones, and wait for the market expectations to tail off a bit.
the point of bringing in someone like Giannis or Durant, is to pair them with this young core. you don't give up the core to accomplish that.
Amen is the alpha. You can see it in the way he moves. There’s a fire in him that never goes out, not even for a second.
