The Art of the Long View - Part Deux: A Tale of Three Teams I posted a thread regarding taking the long view a while back on the Rockets development and introduced a concept of "signposts" that give you clues as to how a team is doing. The following is a single signpost looking at overall team trends that I thought worthwhile noting. The following charts represent a team's win/loss record over the course of the season and an overall trend line as to which direction the team is heading. I'll post my observations regarding this signpost when I get a chance to later. I'd like to hear what others observations are regarding this signpost.
For the Griz, I see some serious New Year's Resolutions. For the Rox, I see more teeth than Jaws. For the Nugz, I see they have fallen off the Rookie cliff.
pradaxpimp: The blue zig-zag lines is the differential between the games won and lost. The text are the dates of the games that have been played.
Wow, these are impressive. It really shows the progress (or lack of progress) of these 3 teams. But good to see we're going up and improving, albeit at a less accelerating rate than Memphis. Thx, appreciated the effort.
The interesting thing about these charts (Thank You Tango), is that the Rox, ironically, have not been all that inconsistent[/I} insofar as getting on some long losing streak. Even though the Rox haven't been able to string together say an eight game win streak, we've never been on a lengthy losing streak either. Hopefully, we'll be able to extend from these two recent wins and get more games over 500. One thing I would note though is that I sincerely believe the Rox we see, of late, is NOT the same Rox we saw in the beginning of the season. Thus, even though we got to a great start at first, then levelled off and played 500 ball for a bit, I still think we are a 600 level team which would put us at 49 or 50 wins on the season. I'm not expecting any big changes in the standings (barring major new injuries to the current top 8), but I do see some reasoning for the Nuggie Nugs to be a marginal 8th seed. If anyone wants to see inconsistency, look no farther than the Nuggie Nugs who recently send a season low in points. Given the difficulty of the remaining schedule, I would be happy if the Rox finished the year 14 games over 500. (~48 wins). I think they have the potential to get up to 16 games over 500. The interesting thing about x games over 500 is that it comes in even number increments. i.e. if we are at 50 wins, we are 18 games over. if we are at 49 wins, we are 16 games over. So a couple extra wins really does make a big difference. mathSAGE
nice job Tango. i also would like to see the trend of the cavs Damn they are now 8 in the east (pathetic). if denver keeps this trend the jazz wil make the play-offs
Nice job, Tango ! I like graphs, too. Yours is very presentable, informative. The Grizzlies look like they have figured out their system pretty well over the last two months. The steady rise looks like it will continue until the playoffs hit. If they keep that going they could be exciting to watch. I like the Rockets steady rise. It shows JVG's methodical tendencies are in play, and should continue thourghout the rest of the season. Nugs are sucking wind it appears. Even though I like the Rockets steady improvement, they would do well to have the sharper rise that Memphis has going at the moment. It is always nice to hit a winning stride right before the playoffs !
Nice job Tango. While we havent been "turning the corner" in regards to wins yet...it is nice to see that it has been a steady improvement. as long as it is steady. We are going to be alright. now, if they could just keep up their improved play of late and put together a nice little streak of wins...
Great job, Tango. This clearly outlines what many of us have regretfully concluded - that James Posey has been the difference. If you pluck him from Memphis and put him on the rockets, our curve would resemble that of Memphis and their would look more like ours, assuming they had not acquired someone else instead of Posey. If the rockets can keep their good play, the next two weeks are going to be interesting. Literally every night there is a matchup or two that have Memphis, Dallas and LA getting real close to us as we approach April 1. Dallas could be at 27 loses; Memhis who plays Rockets twice could be at 27 or 28; and LA could be at 25 or 26 going into an April 1 showdown with the Rockets. Of course all of this means nothing if we lose games like tonight; however we can be at 28 loses by the end of the month.
I wouldn't go that far DearRock. I will admit that Posey has been a big help to them and would be to us as well but I would not call him the 'difference'. In fact you could make the case that Bonzi Wells is the difference because when the Grizzlies started their push in December that was around the time when they acquired Bonzi. I think the overall difference for the Grizzlies is that they needed time to gel with their 10man rotation. And now as the season goes on perhaps they are "outlasting" some teams with their great depth. Tango, the graphs are great! Very informative. Thanks for posting them!
Deuce, you will agree that Posey on our team right now, with him having proven what he can do, would make our team that much better. It is not a stretch either to say that Posey is a difference maker in Memphis. That is really not up for discussion. Both team are literally neck and neck and just taking a difference maker from one on putting him on the other would make a difference. Another thing I would like us to do that Memhis is doing is to lengthen the rotation.
Looks good, the only problem seems to be that you distort the Grizzlies graph because the margin between wins is smaller than the Rockets margin. So visually it's harder to compare. If you could somehow compare the slope values that would be a more accurate comparison I guess. Not sure. I don't know stats that well.
I am no math expert. But I think some people here miss interpret the graph. The line rising upward does not necessarily mean improvement. It just means we are a winning team. It's when the line CURVING upward that means improvement. Notice our line is pretty straight with a little bit curve upward. That a littlte bit improvement. The Grizz curves up a lot more. Denver curves down.
