Hi Folks: I posted about the same time last year with some win/lost historical trending charts for the season. Here's the short list set I've put together for the 2004-2005 NBA season highlighting the Rockets and some of their Western Conference opponents. Last year my objective was to try and remind folks to take the season as a whole and not get too low or too high after individual games, but to look at the overall trends for a season to check progress. This year my intention is to give us some food for thought to chew on regarding the "long view" again. Let me be the first to say that I was extremely worried with a 6-11 start to the season for the Rockets but as the season historical trend shows, things have certainly come around! Without further adieu, here win/lost trends for the Rockets, Spurs, Sonics, Kings, Grizzlies, and Lakers.
awesome stuff man hope to see more also if you have the mavs that would be great imo their progress is more important to the rockets than seattle's. seattle is nestled into that 3 seed. GREAT CHARTS A 5-STAR
Thanks Yoyo... As you requested.. here are the Mavericks and the Suns - rounding out the 8 teams in the West possible for the playoffs.
dude that really is awesome. Thanks cool stuff Rockets look good. Spurs Sonics good. Grizzlies a little off but still winning trend..Kings ehh not so good recently. Lakers mediocre. And Mavericks doin good. Suns very good..the little drop must've been some injury..Nash?
OK, now that the GSW game is over here are a few of my thoughts from the trend lines... The slope of the Rockets trend line is nearly matching the Spurs and the Suns. Comparing the slope of these with the other 5 teams records notwithstanding it appears to me that these are really the top 3 teams in the West. Though the Sonics, Mavericks, and Kings have better records than the Rockets, they are all flattening out a bit compared to the Rockets. Anyone of these three matched up against the Rockets in the play-offs I predict will probably lose to the Rockets. The Kings trend line has flattened out. I predict that the Rockets will take the 5th seed in the West with the Kings settling in at 6th. It might be interesting to stare at the graphs a bit and note key events during the season and how they match up to the trend lines for the various teams. Too much work for me!... but it might spark some other thoughts.
Awesome! Thanks! May be it can also factor in quality wins ( like winning games against above .500 teams) then we might look better lately than other teams. But of course, we did lose to the Bobcats twice early on.
Those charts look like technical analysis of Stock charts to me. Do you have the 9 days MA, RSI, bollinger bands and Sto also ? KH
Great Job Tango. I see you Moving Avg SOS, but I'd also be interested in a Average Strength of Schedule line, one that moves up and down less and less as the season progresses, like batting averages in baseball. That would tell me who has had the toughest Stength of Schedule so far, and also who has the hardest schedule from here on out.
-------------- tituspan- The moving average strength of schedule line was my way of trying to overlay opponent strength vs. wins/losses. I couldn't think of another way to do it that made sense without scrapping the graph altogether. ----------------- Tree Rollins- I tried doing something similar but the line flattens out with a cumulative average approach so it doesn't work the way we think it might. The moving average is the best that I could think of trying to represent the SOS. Right now the moving avg SOS is based on 2 games. I've tried to extending it out further (3,4,5 games etc.) but you lose some visibility. However this does smooth the curves out a bit so that you can see the SOS trends a little easier. I've also used polynomial curve fits for the SOS trend lines but those don't seem as meaningful as the moving avg SOS lines.
