Could Moreyball be well underway as the offseason plan already? Look at the 3 guys the Rockets have acquired/seriously tried to acquire this offseason: Shane Battier Mike James Kirk Snyder What do all of them have in common? http://www.82games.com/0506/0506NOKP.HTM http://www.82games.com/0506/0506TORP.HTM http://www.82games.com/0506/0506MEMP.HTM 1. When they are on the floor, their teams and their teammates play better. 2. They don't make that much money. Their supposed "fair salary" is lower than their actual salary. This could be co-incidence, or this could well be Morey acting as a filter for talent acquisition. I'd be very suprised if the Rockets go after: 1. a player with negative on/off court or player pair stats-- these numbers have a good deal of "noise", but are a decent rough estimate of what happens on the floor). (no Gooden, Sweetney, R.Evans at a quick glance) 2. A player makinig a huge salary (no KMart, Wilcox, etc), few of these guys make enough of a difference to justify their pay (Some of these numbers for every team can be found here: http://www.82games.com/0506/ppairs0506.htm http://www.82games.com/index.htm) Guys who appear to be Morey friendly, just at a brief glance, include Nick Collison, Rondald Murray, Ariza.
This is actually why I've been referring so much to 82games.com lately. I imagine that Morey is using similar statistics, if not factoring those in already. I mean, what better way to evaluate "intangibles" and quantify positive impact than to use +/- statistics and "fair salary"? And I wouldn't say that this approach is far off either. If you look at the fair salary rankings, they seem to rank players pretty well if you ask me. Fair Salary Rankings
Incidentally... everyone the Spurs targeted/acquired appear to make sense from this perspective as well.. Eric Williams (not last year, but a few years ago, he was the king of role player +/- stats, expiring contract), Bonner (about breaks even on +/-, mostly positive player pair stats, and a cheap $2 mil), Jackie Butler (one of the few brights spots for the Knicks), and Elson (fair salary 2.7 mil, actual salary last season 0.7 mil). Meanwhile they let go of overpaid Rasho and Nazr...
Interesting site. Based on their Roland numbers for the Rockets, Maciej Lampe should be starting for us. Mark Twain once said, “Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please.”
Van G: do the plus minus stats and other moreyball stats sway one way or the other when you're dealing with a 2 star system or a more balanced roster? In the many threads about Shane Battier, many have pointed out that his contributions are fine but in the playoffs, it's about matchups and the stars rise and role players, even the high end ones, diminish in importance and performance. My gut says that may be true if you have a Memphis type balanced team, but false if you have 2 stars. For example: Memphis plays Stoudamire, Eddie Jones, Battier, Gasol and Wright against Terry, Harris, Howard, Dirk and Dampier. In the absence of substantial matchup advantages, Memphis' average and above average players are forced to make plays that are generally made by star or franchise players. Their numbers and efficiency drops because they wind up trying to do too much. In contrast, a team of say Alston, Tmac, Battier, Howard and Yao. Battier isn't asked to isolate, take a man off the dribble, post up or anything like that. His catch and shoot opportunties should be even more open. He should be free to crash the boards more and focus his energies on defense more. is there any statistical support for my theory?
looking through the league for backup PG's the guys who had (by far) the best moneyball stats are: daniels, jaric, bell, a.johnson all of them fit under our TE.
1. About Lampe... the guy played like 5 total garbage time minute for the Rockets... not to say he has no talent or anything. We'll see who lasts longer in this league between him and Skita. Good luck to each of them. 2. Rileydog, all these stats of course depend on context... a player who is a good fit for one team may be a bad fit for another. The fact that your primary backup is either great (Mutombo in 04/05) or horrible (when Moochie backed up Marbury) factor hugely into it too Generally, I think your theory about Battier in MEM vs. HOU make sense. In general, decent to great players have better looking stats whenever they got guys who can create opportunities they can exploit. That whole Grizz team simply didn't have one guy who could get it going consistently against DAL defense, not even Gasol.. Without easy shots to exploit, the fantasy stats from Battier to Eddie Jones to Mike Miller looked bad.
A little hard to tell since he got traded midseason... also he had to play all these games at the end of the year when Minny was holding Garnett and R.Davis out and pretty much just tanking..
Im not sure about statistical support but i does make more since than any thing! Really thats why memphis has no shot this season because they have below average players acting as superstars.
Rileydog, about whether there are stats to support that... I'm not so sure if there is one overall, but there are certainly examples. Look at Damon Jones in 04/05 vs. in 05/06. Now, LeBron is a superstar, but he certainly does not generate as many open opportunities as Shaq+Wade did in Mami. As a result, DJones went from looking great one season in terms of +/- and player pair to rather mediocre the next. What impresses me about Battier is that he has several other guys who, at first glance, look similar to him in talent and skill set playing with thim-- Bonzi, Posey, EJones, Mike Miller-- and he still had, by far, the best +/- of that group. Somehow, I think he'll find a way to contribute on this team even more.
These new stats are very interesting to mull over. To an engineer like me it makes perfect sense. I also think that Morey and JVG are like peas and carrots. In other words a perfect pair. JVG has always amazed me in his radio spots when he is discussing the types of statistics he follows, they are not your run of the mill variety but more in line with the way Morey thinks.
If the offseason so far is based on Morey's "special method" then this supposed genius is a complete tool. I am sorry but the Rockets offseason overall so far has been lame at best. CD is not the greatest GM by any stretcg, but if this is what Morey is about, we may long for CD.
Any statistic requires a sufficient sample to be useful. How many meaningful possessions did Lampe play for the Rockets last year?
The problem is you could use these same stats at various times to shoq Yao as a negative to the team. These stats are at BEST, flawed.
In 04/05... Yao had a negative +/-, but that's because in Mutombo's 15 mpg, he was averaging some absurd per-minute production and basically shutting down the paint like he did when he was a decade ago. Now, the problem is you can't play Mutombo for more than 15 mpg or he would break down. It's like saying the Yankee's starting pitchers had a negative effect on the game because Mariano Rivera had a lower ERA. These numbers simply need the correct interpretation and probably a deeper statistical adjustment/categorization that a free website doesn't provide but Morey's staff would look at. _____________________________________________________________ OddsOn: what confuses me about Van Gundy is that if he analyzes films and stats so much, how in the world is Juwan still playing heavy minutes? Maybe his objectivity is tainted by his personal feelings about Juwan being a good pro or his lack of confidence in young players (Chuck Hayes) despite the reulsts. Part of the reason I'm glad Morey's here is that he'd hopefully provide another voice in Van Gundy's ear to make the sensible substitutions. Or, if needed, maybe Morey will trade away Juwan just to keep away the temptation. ____________________________________________________________ As for those who still think these moves are bad... well, keep on bashing CD/Morey/JVG/ mindlessly. We'll see you when the season starts.
If More was such a genius maybe it would have occurred to him that any moron could put a team together using this method, in fact the board is already naming players to pick and drop based on it. What actually takes a brain and talent is to actually eye real talent, develop it and make it work and match. If Morey is making moves ofthis offseason he already proved he has none of those abilities.
You'd have to ask Morey how he evaluates the players... and you'd have to ask CD, who still has the final say. However, Morey has way more detailed stats than those, and he has said the stats are only one of many ways in which he and the front office evaluate a player, not the exclusive way. To me, it makes sense as one useful "filter" against overpaying for inefficient or insufficiently impactful players like DeShawn Stevenson. You look at the numbers on the guy and look at the context as well. If you insist on imagining the front office looking at 82games.com exclusively as the way to look at players, that's your problem.
