I've been an avid reader of advancednflstats.com for a long time. One of the things I like about that site is they have win probability graphs for each game. Earlier in the season the owner of the site, Brian Burke, created a widget so that the graph could be loaded in blogs, message boards, etc. The win probability model is an estimate of which team will win based on historical data. Some variables included in the data include score differential, time remaining and field position, among others. The more the line in the graph is higher, the greater probability the visiting team will win. The lower the line, the greater probability the home team will win. Put your mouse cursor over the graph line to read the play-by-play data. <iframe width="500" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" src="http://live.advancednflstats.com/featureGraph.php?team=HST" name="game" ></iframe> The graph currently shows the Texans/Bucs from two weeks ago. It will automatically change to the Texans/Jaguars game when it gets underway. If you're on the computer during the game, come into this thread and see the chances of a Texans victory in near real time. If you're unable to see the graph then switching to a different browser may help.
The infamous Rosencopter game: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/nflarchive.php?year=2008&team=HST&gameid=29593 Texans had a 99% chance of winning over halfway thru the 4th quarter. The rest is history.
