(My post from over at TexansTalk. Let me hear your thoughts.) At the moment -- we look like (i) a ground and pound machine running the ball, tops in the league, (ii) highly effective in the air, (iii) elite at stopping the run, and (iv) an atrocity against the pass. I predict that by year end, we will be a playoff team, but the extreme stats will pull back to the middle. Consider this, at the quarter pole of the season: 1. Three of the teams we have played (Indy, Wash and Dallas) are very pass happy and effective in the air. Hence magnifying our pass defense deficiencies. 2. These three teams also happen to be crap at running the ball. Our run defense looks quite good, and perhaps we are, given that we slowed the Raiders and had a good run defense for the latter part of last year. 3. With the exception of Dallas, to whom we lost, three of the teams we faced have poor (Indy and Wash) or average (Oak) defenses after the quarter mark of the season. This has helped us amass 30+ ppg per win. The schedule is about to change dramatically. Let’s consider the nature of the teams we are going to face. 1. Many of them have run the ball effectively in the first quarter of the season: KC, NYG, SD, Jets, Tenn, Phil, Balt, Jacksonville. Baltimore has a team history and culture of doing so. This is going to test our run defense and thank heavens that Cushing is back. Are these teams going to walk into our strength in stopping the run, or will they seek to abuse our secondary? The Defense must prevail in the test of wills. 2. In contrast, just three opponents, Denver, SD and Indy, are strong passing teams. The rest of our opponents are average to poor at attacking in the air. Is our beleaguered pass defense going to catch a break, or will we make legends out of Garrard, Young, Sanchez, Flacco and Kolb? 3. Half of the teams we will face are in the top half in run defense: KC, Jets, SD, Tenn, Jacksonville. Except Indy, the rest are tough, hard nosed defenses that will be in the top half, if not top quarter, by year end: Baltimore, Giants, Philly. We will find out whether we can really shove the ball down our opponents throats, or have benefitted from weak run defenses to start the year. The Texans must run the ball with enough success for the air attack to take hold and light up the scoreboard. 4. The majority of our opponents are stout defensively overall, including three opponents (SD, Balt, NYG) sitting atop the defensive rankings. Tenn, Philly, NYJ are always tough defensively. KC and Denver are average, and Indy and Jacksonville are sieves, like us. Our offense will be tested. Schaub will have to limit turnovers and we will have to be efficient in the red zone. Historically, the Texans have struggled with smash mouth teams like the NYJ and Baltimore. Does our performance agaisnt Dallas offer an indicator of how things might go against this new type of opponent? Perhaps, but this year's squad has a new lethal dimension in the form of Arian Foster. Opposing defenses are going to have to play great to beat us. I like our chances against Denver, Jville x2, KC and even Indy. Yes, I'm talking sweep of Indy. IMO, if they can't stop our ground attack, its going to be a long day for these opponents. If we're turning the corner as a team, I like our chances against the Titans x2, Giants and Philly. Bloody and tough games, but I think we take at least half of these games. The crucible for our team is the games agaisnt SD, Baltimore and NYJ. Talented, ubertough teams that will test your talent and will in all phases. Beat 2 out of 3 and we might have a superbowl contender. --
Excellent analysis. My prediction for the rest of the year... NYG - W KC - W @ IND - L SD - L @ JAX - W @ NYJ - L TEN - W @ PHI - W (W if Kolb, L if Vick) BAL - Undecided @ TEN - W @ DEN - Undecided JAX - W 10-4 with 2 games undecided. Ceiling: 12-4 Basement: 10-6 Get on the bandwagon now, fools.
I think you have the Giants, KC, and SD overrated. I think the Texans are going to stomp the Giants and Chiefs in the next 2 weeks. What you saw last night was an aberration. They won't get anywhere near 10 sacks. When you don't have a run game to speak of and a weak, Mike Martz-coached OL, it's a wonder that doesn't happen every game. They'll have to respect the run game of the Texans and don't have that top corner to stop AJ. Plus, Cushing will be back and will be playing like a man on fire. Eli, the giants rb's & te's should be concerned for their health and well being...as well as anyone else that wants to come over the middle. Demeco will get to play closer to the line, shutting down Bradshaw and Jacobs. KC is one dimensional. Even as bad as the pass defense has been, I don't think KC is capable of taking advantage. Keep their special teams in check, and it should be a relatively easy win. SD is horribly inconsistent. They can do what they did this week against a really bad Arizona team OR they choke to a really bad Seattle team. They definitely have talent, but they're extremely beatable, especially being a home game for the Texans. I think they'll be 5-1 going into the bye. Must wins after are Jax (both games), SD @ home, Tenn @ home, & @ Denver. Win those 5 and you've got 10 wins. Anything else is gravy and likely better playoff seeding.
I disagree bout the offense. Our passing game is legit, and was the best in the league last year. If anything, we have had a slow start this year. Schuab should pick it up as the year goes on. Running wise, last year we struggled because of Slaton, injuries on the line, and not having depth. But look at the year before that and we were pretty respectable. So last year as soon as Foster came in he started lighting it up. Now we have a good running back and we have depth. Only concern is the same problem we had last year - not converting in the red zone.
The Giants have been gashed by the running game so they should play right into our hands, while Eli is such a blah QB that the Giants game has turned into a must win. SD is weird so who knows what team we will get but they've struggled on Special Teams and teams have been able to run on them. KC is living on borrowed time, no passing game and have beaten teams with a combined record of 3-10. All three games are must wins now and then it gets interesting. The Jets, Ravens and second Colts game will be VERY difficult to win but we should AT LEAST split with Tennessee and, even with their win yesterday, Jax can be a sweep. Denver actually worries me with that passing so that should be a fun game but they their defense isn't great either so we should win that game. 11-5 was my pick before the season and i'll stick to it.
Great post - well thought out. My thoughts: Oakland actually had an average day running the ball: 118 and 4.7 YPC versus a 124/4.5 average. At the same time, we were missing Cushing. I couldn't be more excited for his return after the videos and write ups. Red Hulk Smash! Division games: this is tricky for me, because I generally hold that you shouldn't expect much better than 0.500 in your division, even as a playoff team. They are your toughest games, even if you are obviously a better team that year. It's like sibling rivalries, or playing your best friend. Texans were 4-14 the 3 seasons coming into this year and have never gone 3-3. I refuse to give them (or anyone) better than 4-2 in projections. NYG - I think we all saw a worst case scenario last night. If they go buck wild on Schaub like they did Cutler, it could significantly impact our season. If there was a game I wanted to see the run set up the pass, this is it. Bears were idiotic throwing every down. For all their struggles, the Giants are actually pretty good moving the chains on the ground or through the air. Cushing returns to commit on-field homicides. KC - elite run game, mediocre pass game (not as bad as some are suggesting, on par with the Skins). Their defense perfectly mirrors the offense. At home, armed with Cushing, we look pretty good against them. (Bye) - Hopefully Johnson, Daniels, and the other dinged up folks come back strong after the week off. @IND - We came very close to sweeping them last year, but horseshoes and handgrenades. They look off to me, but the passing attack is as good as ever. Nonexistent running game. Given our secondary issues, this becomes a shootout. We're both coming off a bye, so no edge there, but Brown returns from suspension. SD - really dangerous team on both sides of the ball. 2 blowouts, 2 losses to teams that aren't looking that hot. Might be that they just bullied two weak sisters. @JAX - What I'm warning about when we love what we see on paper and forget how divisional opponents can frustrate us better than anyone else. @NYJ - I'm relieved we won't see Kris Jenkins, but they're still stout against the run. Teams have shown you can pick on them in the air. Hopefully, Revis is still struggling with his hammy and conditioning. TEN - We all know these guys. I strongly believe Kareem Jackson was drafted not to be a shutdown corner, but to help against runners who go wild in the flat like Johnson. @PHI (Thurs) - short week, on the road in a hostile open air stadium at night in what should be cold weather. I don't even care what "on paper" tells us about the Eagles. It would take heart the size of Vick's legal bills to pull this off under those conditions. BAL (Mon) - very nearly a second bye week, with a week and a half off between games and playing at home. I don't like seeing the Ravens, but conditions are good. Right no, they're lights out against the pass, but mediocre against the run. Hopefully our new "choose your posion" offense takes advantage. They've been very inconsistent offensively. I'm amazed Flacco's been so erratic with such a good receiving corps. @TEN (above) @DEN - worst in the league on the ground, with Moreno out. Passing like crazy to compensate. Middle of the road defense. Hard to say what they'll look like if Moreno recovers. JAX (above) NYG (W) KC (W) @IND (L) SD (W) @JAX (W) @NYJ (L) TEN (W) @PHI (L) BAL (W) @TEN (L) @DEN (L) JAX (W) 10-6 and playoffs. I'm considering that to be an optimistic scenario. Very possible, but we've got to play like Lions and hope that we're going to come out of the woods with all the suspensions/benching/injuries
I've said this several times - I honestly believe our receiving corps makes Schaub shine, not the other way around. OD and Johnson have been hampered, and it shows. If they get healthy and Brown returns to bolster the pass blocking, we'll get back on track. The emergence of the run game should also help set up the pass.
10-6 was my worse case for the season going in. Rocket River then again . . i thought they should have won 12 games last year
