Tanks, but NO Tanks: The lottery odds against drafting a franchise player

we going to the playoffs(cause we got game, xcept battier) and we going to upset the lakers cause we got their number.

 

imagine the city of houston and CF if we upset lakers

 

but but tanks r so strung

 

Besides, with the looming league situation, it wouldn't be a good idea to tank because the 2011 draft is gonna be slim pickings.

 

The only franchise that has won an NBA championship, in recent memory, using your method of re-tooling is the Detroit Pistons in 2004. That's it. That's one team out of this decade and one team out of the past two decades.

Even then, the 2004 Pistons were the best defensive team in the league. (http://tinyurl.com/28exslu) The current core trio of Aaron Brooks, Kevin Martin and Luis Scola are all below-average defenders and are not capable of replicating the kind of defense the 2004 Pistons had. The Pistons didn't win because their offense was firing on all cylinders -- they won because of their defense.

It's time to rebuild.. through the draft.

 

It's already looking like one of the worst draft classes of recent years and will only get worse with the expected NBA lockout of next season.

Anyone who thinks we should tank are just morons.

Rockets are one big trade away from being a perennial championship contender and we have the pieces to make that deal happen.

 

Ugh. No, we aren't. Iguodala does not make us a championship contender. He makes us a 5th seed type team at best. The current core of this team is NOT good enough to compete for a championship.

It's time to rebuild, people. Just let go.. we tried our best to bring a championship to the city in this era. It has failed. It's time to start over.

 

and even then pistons got help because of the fuede with shaq and kobe destroying the lakers team chemistry

 

They "drafted" Kobe Bryant; arguing otherwise is just semantics. Kobe never played for any other team BUT the Lakers -- they have developed him since his rookie year. They also were able to trade Shaq for major pieces that helped them rebuild. Exactly who on our team has the type of value that Shaq carried for them? Nobody.

Just let go, topfive. We tried. We gave it our best shot. It didn't work.. it's not going to work. The sooner we realize it, the better.

EDIT: If you want to trade away our big contracts to clear cap space to go after Dwight (you know, how the Lakers acquired Shaq?), be my guest. Just make sure you acquire a few 1st rounders for them while you're doing it and we'll be back on the same page.

 

The fact is:

1. If you have a 45-55 win team, it's very hard to land enough additional talent to get you into elite status.


2. If you go into the tank (i.e. 20-win season, etc), it's also very hard to land enough additoinal talent to get you into elite status. Specifically, you'll get a few lotto picks, maybe even high ones. If you pick well, chances are you'll get into the 45-55 win category within 3-4 years, lose your ability to add big talent through high picks, then it's very hard to get into elite status. If you don't pick well, chances are it'll allow you to stay in the tank longer, before getting into the 45-55 win category and lose your ability to add big time talent through high picks and thus get into elite status.


The the moral of the story is that if your team is not elite already, it's very hard to become elite whether you tank or not. You are ****ed either way.

Trying to improve without tanking might only give the Rockets, say, a 10-15% chance of achieving elite/contender status in the foreseeable future. Trying to improve by tanking likely won't give you better odds than that.

 

It's all about how well you draft -- I have confidence that Morey could build a legitimate contender through high draft picks. It won't happen overnight.. but if we fully commit to the process, we will have a lot better outlook in three years than we currently do.

Some fans are impatient and don't want their team to ever suck. I get that. But I just want my team to be a title contender again. I realize that, that won't happen with our current core of players -- we need to draft/acquire a franchise player at all cost, not more expensive band-aids (Iguodala/Wallace).

Another benefit of landing a high draft pick is your ability to trade it. The Nuggets would be knocking down our door to trade us Carmelo if we had what they wanted -- Derek Favors. Getting these high picked talents is the BEST trading chip to bring to the table when you're looking to acquire elite talent. Teams that are trading their superstars don't want mediocre role players like Jordan Hill or Chase Budinger.. they want young guys with elite potential, like Derek Favors/Demarcus Cousins.

Think what you want. I guess the Rockets didn't draft Donte Greene, they traded an 'asset' for him. The Rockets wouldn't have drafted Brandon Roy if Portland hadn't interfered, they would have 'traded an asset' for him. The Rockets must not have 'drafted' Eddie Griffin. You target guys you want to draft and you trade up to land them. You telling me 'that's not technically drafting them' is just semantics.

For the record, I'm on board with trading 'assets' to move up in the draft to acquire the guys we want. I'm on record as saying I'd be willing to move Martin or Scola to move up in the draft.

 

Thank you. Great post. All of these folks who think a bad record and a high draft pick are the key to turning around the franchise are just oversimplifying things and asking for years of frustration and bad teams. Truth is, with a great draft pick, the team would be lucky if it could draft someone as good as Iggy, who doesn't get enough credit because defense never does. The team is much better off going after good pieces and seeking players with potential in trades, like the T. Williams trade. That was a great move, even if it doesn't work out. It was a smart move because of the tremendous upside, the potential of the player, who came to the team without the team having to post a miserable record. This idea of a great draft position as a panacea, and the related idea that all players are simply either "superstars" or "role players" and the team just needs a "superstar" and shouldn't make moves to get better unless they bring in a "superstar" are way too simplistic and really would resign the team to many more years of mediocrity. Thank goodness Morey understands this and doesn't think that way.

 

The Los Angeles Clippers have proven that tanking to be in the lottery is a terrible strategy.

And Morey is not so stupid.

But he is smart enough to acquire other team's potential lottery picks while helping his team make a trade to get better.

 

Seriously doubt any Clippers fans would want to trade positions with us, they are pretty happy with Griffin and Gordon.

Once again, all we can do is pray that Morey is able to pull something off/one of the acquired players develops into a superstar.

 

Maybe iggy doesn't make us a contender. What if the bucks blow it up and we can snag bogut. What if the magic implode and superman wants out. What if snag Gerald Wallace or marc gasol?

We are way closer to being contenders via the current path. The draft is a consolation prize for loser franchises that maybe get lucky.

And to LTF, I would love to hear your specific ideas on rebuilding through the draft. And not "trade for picks". I want to hear specific proposals.

 

im starting to agree, snatching an all-star with yao on board made us contenders, now with our current situation no star will sign with us because stars attract stars and we need one via however, easiest way is to tank.