I will skip the GOP stuff because McCain is essentially going to have a sweep. Romney will win Massachusetts, Huckabee might capture Arkansas and another southern state or two. Otherwise, McCain wins them all. Ron Paul supporters might score a victory today - unbenownst to many of us, Maine has a GOP caucus today and Paul is favored (no other candidate visited the state). The fun part will be Tuesday on the Dem side. The current polls show: Obama leads (mostly narrow leads) in Illinois, Connecticut, Colorado, Georgia Hillary leads (some narrow, some huge) in Arizona, Alabama, Tennessee, California, Arksansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Utah Alaska, Delaware, Idaho, Kansas, New Mexico, North Dakota are all kind of unknowns due to a lack of polling. The Case for Hillary Simple: she leads virtually everywhere. Obama had momentum this past week, with both Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls showing Obama closing the gap nationally each of the past seven days. However, today's Rasmussen poll shows that momentum has potentially stopped as the gap widened a point. Today's was also the first poll that partly included data after the debate. If the momentum has halted and Hillary holds to her poll numbers, she wins Super Tuesday solidly. That also puts the Obama campaign on life support. The Case for Obama He has to hope the Rasmussen poll today was an outlier. Gallup will come out later today. He also has to hope his supporters are more excited than hers and turn out in large numbers. In three of the five states (Iowa, South Carolina, Florida) he has outperformed the polls. In NH, he severely underperformed. Nevada was pretty much dead on. He's gotten to within single digits in most states, so that's a plus. He also has (supposedly) superior ground organizations very good at maximizing delegates. That was true when they could focus on one state at a time - who knows if that will hold. He needs to hope late deciders solidly favor him. Theory suggests they generally favor challengers over incumbents, but its hard to say if Obama is still a "challenger" given the media saturation of this race. Obama also needs to hope he's making inroads with latino voters - the Kennedy stuff, recent endorsement the biggest spanish language newspaper in California and great radio coverage may or may not help - we'll see. Ultimately, he simply needs to break even on Super Tuesday, hopefully in delegates but especially in media coverage. He can't be portrayed as having lost Super Tuesday. The rest of February supposedly favors Obama, but I don't really know enough about that, and it won't be enough to end the campaign. A split finish on Super Tuesday would basically make Texas and Ohio the big prizes in early March. If either candidate is portrayed as a solid loser, their campaign is probably over. The only exception I see is if the losing candidate wins California (which is looking like a tossup). In that scenario, they could cling to that for momentum. As of this point, with the increasing unreliability of polls and the craziness of this race, anything could happen from a Hillary blowout to an Obama blowout. I don't that there's been an election in my lifetime with that much potential variance.
Dude, what polls are you looking at that show California a tossup and Obama leading in CT? The picture as of today looks bad for Obama. Let's see if the media continues to splooge all over themselves in covering him on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
If you are going to tell Major how wrong he is, it would be a nice touch to reference some polling data that supports your assertion.
Connecticut shows Obama by 4 in the most recent poll and tied in the previous one: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ct/connecticut_democratic_primary-273.html California shows Hillary by 3: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html The California one still shows 9% for Edwards. Based on the Rasmussen and Gallup national polls, there was significant movement towards Obama after the Edwards dropout. Assuming that applies to California, that places them in a dead heat.
I would like to not ignore the GOP Super Tuesday. In particular, I would like to know what Trader_Jorge thinks of Romney's chances to stage a comeback. Here in SF, there were lots of people out stumping for Obama, somewhat surprisingly. I've seen a few Hillary signs but nobody out waving signs (to say nothing of the dancing I witnessed today for Obama). I have not decided my Tuesday vote... I'm still reading. (Yes, reading more than this BBS )
The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll has Hillary up 47-43. The polling was done Jan 30th to Feb 1st. I think the other big pollsters will report in Sunday late morning. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/02/AR2008020202572.html
National polls are meaningless at this point. On the other hand, state-wide polls can be something. The following URL ought to save Major from his painstaking daily update: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio..._(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008
Hillary's going to be the next president; I don't think anyone in the U.S is willing to gamble with an unknown, especially with the current economic uncertainty. People would rather have someone with prior success (Mr. Clinton). IMHO. How you guys voted Bush to office twice is beyond me, so I'm guessing I'm probably going to wrong and y'all will put Bush II (McCain) in office. I personally like Obama, though I just don’t think it’s the right time for him. He would make a great vice-president at this point.
This is the most depressing thread in the history of the D&D Except for the fact that there's still a chance McCain can beat Shrillary
Idaho [15,000] - The "black" candidate? http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2090/2237513684_576b50833f_o.jpg http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKN0345866120080203?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0 Clinton, Obama in close Super Tuesday races Sun Feb 3, 2008 11:13am GMT By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are running neck-and-neck in California, New Jersey and Missouri two days before the sprawling "Super Tuesday" presidential showdown, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday. Obama has a slight lead in California and is virtually tied with Clinton in New Jersey and Missouri heading into the biggest day of voting in a U.S. presidential nominating campaign, with contests in 24 states from coast to coast. "It looks like we have some serious horse races going on with Clinton and Obama," said pollster John Zogby said. "However it turns out, we can be pretty sure it is too close to be resolved on Tuesday." Obama, an Illinois senator who would be the first black U.S. president, has a comfortable 20-point lead in Georgia fueled by a more than 3-to-1 advantage over Clinton among black voters. In the Republican race, Arizona Sen. John McCain has double-digit leads on Mitt Romney in New York, New Jersey and Missouri but narrowly trails the former Massachusetts governor in California, the biggest prize on "Super Tuesday." Romney leads McCain by 37 percent to 34 percent in California. The poll's margin of error is 2.9 percentage points. "California could be Romney's last stand," Zogby said. "If he wins there, it may not be a whole new ballgame, but it can give those Republicans who oppose McCain hope they still have a chance to stop him." The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll surveyed the presidential races in both parties in California, New Jersey and Missouri. The polls, taken Thursday through Saturday, also included the Republican race in New York and the Democratic race in Georgia. Polling will continue through Monday. CLINTON, OBAMA RUN CLOSE Both parties have staged tight, seesawing battles for the nominations for November's presidential election. Clinton, the New York senator, and Obama split the first four Democratic contests -- Obama won Iowa and South Carolina, while Clinton won New Hampshire and Nevada. In California, the poll found Obama led Clinton by 45 percent to 41 percent, with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. Clinton held statistically insignificant 1-point leads on Obama in New Jersey and Missouri, well within the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points in both surveys. Both candidates have established a strong base of support and are holding on to it ahead of Tuesday's voting, the poll found. Clinton leads among women, Hispanics and elderly voters. Obama leads among blacks, men and young voters. "They are running very close, essentially evenly split, among most of the rest of the sub-groups," Zogby said. "It is a very tight, very contested race on almost every level." In the Republican race, McCain is riding a wave of momentum after consecutive wins over Romney in South Carolina and Florida, and is hoping a strong showing on Tuesday will put him on the path to the nomination. He held big leads over Romney in New York, 49 percent to 23 percent, and in New Jersey, 54 percent to 23 percent. In Missouri, McCain led former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 36 percent to 27 percent, with Romney running third at 22 percent. The margins of error in New York and Missouri were 3.3 percentage points, and in New Jersey it was 3.4 percentage points. The key for candidates in both parties is to win delegates, who vote on the nominees at this summer's national party conventions. More than half of the total Democratic delegates are up for grabs on Tuesday, and about 40 percent of the Republican delegates. Unlike Republicans, though, Democrats distribute delegates in proportion to their vote statewide and in individual congressional districts. That means candidates can come away with big chunks of delegates even in states they lose. As a result, neither Obama nor Clinton are likely to deal a knockout blow on Tuesday, prolonging their battle for the nomination to later contests in February, or to March and beyond. In contrast, most Republican contests are winner-take-all when awarding delegates, meaning a strong day by McCain could give him a commanding lead. (Editing by Todd Eastham)
I figured there would be some movement in California, especially after the Times endorsement and Pelosi all but endorsing him. I'd still be shocked if he actually won California -- I think the Clinton campaign has been working too long there and has the ground game. But if he does, even if it's by less than a point, it's huge -- it gives him a legitimate claim to momentum and allows him to keep things competitive going forward, even if Hillary wins a majority of the Tuesday delegates. I'm surprised Missouri is effectively a tie. I'm not used to having my vote mean anything.
Zogby: Obama, Romney Ahead In California By Eric Kleefeld - February 3, 2008, 3:18AM A new Zogby poll in California — a state that may well decide the direction of the Democratic race — shows Barack Obama taking a small lead over Hillary Clinton, within the margin of error. Obama has 45% to Clinton's 41%, with Latest Zobby poll (released today I believe) has Obama taking a slight lead in California- Obama's 20-point lead among men making up for Hillary's 11-point lead with women. Some more Zogby state poll numbers are available after the jump. California: Democrats: Obama 45%, Clinton 41% http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/02/zogby_obama_romney_ahead_in_ca.php However, I read somewhere last week that a large percentage of California voters had already voted absentee, which would probably not be good news for Obama.
I'm not sure I'd trust those Zogby polls. They seem out of whack with most of the other polls - especially in regards to Romney, who they show leading McCain in California. Most other polls have McCain up double digits.
You are obviously a HC supporter, and of course that's you're prerogative, but that doesn't mean she will win based on the public's uncertain economic outlook and. The Clinton's haven't proven anything in terms of economic recovery, Hillary sure hasn't done anything of the sort during her WH term and her two senate terms. How is Obama an 'unknown' for fiscal matters and Hillary the be-end-all solution? By your assertion it sounds simply like you want Bill Clinton's policies back, and I think a large number of Hillary supporters feel this way as well. It sounds like you just don't want W in office again, or anybody who would increase the deficit. Interesting that Obama is the 'unknown' in the economic stance.
Hussein Ubama is a fool when it comes to economic issues. Everytime he opens his mouth he reminds us of this fact. His latest idea to not import any toys from China is proof positive of this fact. Pissing off one of our largest trade partners....now that's a horrible economic start (and doubly poor for sino american relations)
