The NBA screwed them with 1 days rest before the 1st game and 1 day between the 1st and 2nd game. But they have 3 days beetween game 2 and game 3, good chance to have Joe J playing by then, and are the best road team in the league. They just have to find a way to stay aflout through Tuesday. If they can get a split, I think they take the series in 7.
I don't think so Scar. I think the Spurs are better. However, I'm curious as to whether or not the Spurs try to slow it down. Seemed like in the reg. season that they tried to run with them. I think they ended up winning a game in Phoenix (w/o Duncan), scores being in the 120s. Also, I think Duncan is hurting, so the lack of time before the series starts doesn't just hurt Phoenix (could just be p.r. though, like Shaq's 'injury'). Either way, I'm finally going to watch some NBA now, at least. Two good matchups.
As strong as the Suns are on the road, the Spurs were an incredible 38-3 in San Antonio this year. You're asking a lot for Phoenix to get one or two wins there. I think the opposite of you, Scar. The Spurs are the more talented team, but the problem with them is that they're mentally fragile. They don't always respond well to adversity, and that's reflected in their mediocre 21-20 road record. You could also see it in their Game 4 performance in Seattle and their performances in the fifth and sixth games against the Lakers a year ago. They rely on the energy boost of a home crowd and other related momentum factors. The Spurs are deeper and more physical, and yet they also have a better chance to match the Suns athletically than any team in the playoffs. That's why I think they have the edge. But the Spurs don't have a killer instinct, and a team like the Suns with an intelligent leader and good shooting can steal a couple of games late. That said, I don't think they'll win the series that way. I just don't think they're deep enough or efficient enough in the halfcourt. But one huge advantage they do have is in the mental part of the game, and that's how they can get the Spurs in trouble. I think it's imperative for them to win these two home games in Phoenix and make the Spurs tighten up... if you give the Spurs the confidence of taking a road game (not their strength), I think you're asking for trouble.
I think regular season home record isn't as important. It is more influenced by ref home cooking and the natural letdowns than the playoffs--where as every game matters and teams stay more focused. Also, Denver went in there and won in the playoffs, Phx 3X as potent as Denver. Aso, I think the Suns have the better starting 5 (if healthy)--I don't think it is close. TD is the only match-up the Spurs win--and he still as to play an all-star on both ends (either Marion or Amare). The Suns win big at PG, SF and C. SG, when Johnson is healthy is even (17, 5, 3.5 for JJ versus 16, 4, 3.5 for Manu). However without Johnson Manu gets the edge over Jackson/Q. Spurs advantage is depth, and half court sets. Phx advantage is talent in the starters and open court. Not all that dissimilar to the Showtime Detriot type match-ups, except these teams are not that good.
DS, You missed one important difference: Defense. Spurs are a more veteran, more balanced, more defense capable team. Basically, they're a better 'team'.
Duncan is not healthy..but you still can't guard him 1 on 1. And the supporting cast for Spurs is great. First of all..Parker if confident can do well. He needs to play better defense imo on Nash. Ginobili is fantastic..they can't guardh im..and he's good. Barry same! Two smart shooting guards. Robert Horry is a versatile veteran..good role player. Nazr Mohammed and Nesterovic (5 minutes) did good. Bowen...his defense good..but he can't make a shot..I guess running around setting picks is good. He can drive though. Spurs are complete. Inside ..outside.. They play defense. I like Udrich on Nash. Barbosa is erratic. JJ is just wow draining shots. Nash may be tired but Spurs are guarding him well. Amare making jump shots is nice. Marion is injured. Q RIch has been not so good imo. Spurs will win. They still have Devin Brown there too.
Denver did take one game, but the Spurs are 5-1 at home in the playoffs with most wins by double digits. It's a tough place to play. Also, I think you're underestimating the Nash effect on the numbers of guys like Jackson and Richardson. Their numbers are close to Ginobili's, but all the players for the Suns have slightly inflated numbers due to the speed of the game and all the extra possessions they get as a result. I think Ginobili is a clear edge over Jackson, Richardson or a Joe Johnson at clearly less than full strength. He's just a much better creator and does more to make the players around him better. I also think that the combination of Barry/Bowen gives you close to as much value as Richardson. I think both teams have two clear edges in the starting lineup (Nash and Marion for PHX, Duncan and Ginobili for SA). But when you consider the significant edges in team defense and depth that go to the Spurs, this series really shouldn't go more than 5 or 6 games. I'm expecting it to go 7, however, based on the Spurs' lack of killer instinct and inability to hit free throws to close out games. By the way, as valuable as Nash is, he's still a huge liability on defense. Parker had 29 today, and two of his three games against PHX in the regular season were equally effective. Dec. 28: 29 points (14-20 FG) March 9: 30 points (14-31 FG), 5 asst He also had a two point stinker in there, but for the most part (3 out of 4 games), he's been right at 30 points a game. Nash has all sorts of problems with his speed off the dribble and the gap between Nash and Parker isn't as great as you'd expect it to be.
Tough to have a good series against Bowen when he fouls like a maniac and holds and grabs you 24/7 off the ball. SA sweeps this series. Suns are porous defensively and Joe Johnson's loss is huge. Very lopsided matchup for a WCF, reminds me of the 01 matchup with SA vs. LA when one team was just so much more superior.
Run and gun doesn't even get you into the finals. As soon as you play a defensive team they slow the pace down and pick you apart. The Spurs will have this series in 5. These 2 last series before the finals will be fun to watch.
I agree Ginobili is a lot better than Jackson or Q. But he is not a lot better, if any better, than Joe Johnson. Joe Johnson is the Suns best SG/SF defensively and offensively, 2nd best playmaker and point guard. If Ginobili was out, and Phx had all its guys healthy, the Suns would be overwhelming favorties. But unless JoeJ can come back, and at least at say 80%, it would be a tremendous surprise if the Suns could win the series. But they did beat Dallas 3-2 w/o JoeJ--with two victories in Dallas, so it isn't like they are not good without him. Hopefully they have dismissed the idea they are purely a regular season team--lots of people picked against them versus the Mavs even thinking the Suns were intact (before the injury), yet had the Suns had their full team the Mavs would have probably only won a game, if that. I still think if Phx can tread water and get Johnson back they are in great shape to win. If they lose Tuesday it will be extremely tough however. Also, I don't think Phx is as bad defensively as people think. Getting Johnson back will help. They are long and athletic, and showed some of their potential when got a lot of key stops on the Mavs. It is true as a team they didn't focus on it much in the regular season, but they have the ingredients to do it. Further, for all the talk about the Spurs defense, the Suns shot 49% without their best outside shooter. I don't think the Spurs defense is at the level of the Pistons for instance (though TD gives them a much better #1 option than the Pistons). I think the Suns worst nightmare would be the Pistons actually, not the Spurs.
They will be matched up less than half the time. Marion had a poor game after a brilliant overtime game 2 days ago on the road. It happens, hell be back. Anyone want to bet Marion does more damage than Bowen? You guys make much too much out of 1 game where both teams had their hot stretches and the Spurs came in with major advantages. I wonder if many of you also picked Dallas because they "played better defense" than the Suns. This series will go six, seven if Johnson returns at 80% by game 3.
This will go no less than 6, IMO. Suns are a devestatingly deep offensive team, and the Spurs always seem to cough up a game or two, even in a mis-matched series. They went 6-deep against the Sonics, and I hope there isn't anyone so loopy as to think the Suns are a step down. Even if Bowen was locked on Marion, he wouldn't take him out of his game completely. What makes Matrix so good is his knack for doing the off-ball work. Bowen won't keep him off the boards or from playing solid help D. And it's not like Marion needs his number called or to go one-on-one to get his points. As I see it, the key to this series is Stoudemire. If he can continue to go off for 40 against a less-athletic frontline, the Suns have a shot. If the Spurs employ a team defense like they did yesterday down the stretch, it'll be trouble. Evan
Shame on you for accusing me of picking Dallas. I thought the series was a wash, because both of their defenses stink. Pop is a smart coach. He'll have them ready from the tip-off in this game. Phoenix is the team that broke down in the 4th and will need to make the adjustment. Are they capable of making an adjustment? We'll see. It could go 6. I just don't see the Suns out playing the Spurs. I could be wrong.
I said I "wondered" if you guys picked the Mavs, not that you did. I could see the Suns outplaying them with their full team, but not if TD, Manu and Parker can stay on the floor and produce, while JoeJ can't. SA had a great 4th quarter in game 1 against a worn down Suns team. I agree if Duncan plays like that and their perimeter guys are hitting like that the Suns can't beat them. I don't think the Spurs can keep that up, they were just hot and the Suns didn't have a lot of energy.
BIG DOG was out due to his mother dying. He has been a pretty good surprise lately. I guess if you had a chance to play with a team that is poised to win the championship i would try hard too. I find it amusing that SA lacks killer insticnt but that have won almost half there games by 10+ points or more. Where I see the big difference between SA and PHx is are the players outside there big three. When you have bench players that are contributing 30+ points I would have say they have the best chance to win especially when they are able to rest the starters.
Run and gun teams dont make the finals? Spurs and Suns are all that are left in the west. The rockets play a slow half court game, and it got them nowhere. So if Run and Gun only gets u to this round, then so be it. Better then what most teams can do these days. The rockets cannot even get out the frist round. The suns played hard all season, got number 1 seed, and got the benifits of it. Home court Advantage and to play number 8 seed. Go suns!!! Amare to own duncan.. again!!
