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Suggested FA Target: Austin Reaves

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Mathloom, Mar 21, 2023.

  1. lakersuck2

    lakersuck2 Member

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    From hate watching many Lakers games this season I can say that Reeves is pretty good. Probably the most enjoyable player on that team actually. I find it hard to imagine poaching him from the Lakers for just an additional 5M though because if he keeps performing, he'd probably make more than that off court in LA.
     
    Mathloom likes this.
  2. DatRocketFan

    DatRocketFan Member

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    67.3-8 = 59.3
    Still higher than head honcho and green.
     
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  3. DatRocketFan

    DatRocketFan Member

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    67.3-8 = 59.3
    Still higher than head honcho and green.

    Wowzer
     
  4. DatRocketFan

    DatRocketFan Member

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    What do u think the Lakers gonna offer him and do u think he gonna turn down a bigger payday just to stay with LA
     
  5. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    Different roles. Even though he can get some assists most of them come from being a connective passer than beating players off the dribble. This can be seen from how he has a rather significantly lower unassisted fgm rate than either of our starting guards. Most of his pts come off teammate dimes.

    So his role would be a slightly more dynamic KMJ. Notice how he has a much higher scoring efficiency than either Green or KPJ. Who the hell here with a straight face is going to say that KMJ is a better scorer than either of our backcourt starters.

    Chandler Parsons might be a very good comparison for Reeves. Good secondary driver from defenses that already collapsed from a primary driver.
     
  6. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    NICE...I approve Reeves as a player, i only watch hl but he always seems to be doing the smart thing...just not sure in this toxic culture before half empty tc and with terrible coaching hed be the same player
     
  7. Mathloom

    Mathloom Consumption is a waste of time.

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    Great comp. One minor difference: Reaves goes to the line more than Parsons ever did in his career. Tougher player.

    Otherwise eerily similar production.
     
    fchowd0311 likes this.
  8. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member
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    https://theathletic.com/4326808/2023/03/20/austin-reaves-lakers-magic/

    […] Reaves’ surge is setting him up for a fascinating offseason. He will be a restricted free agent this summer, and will undoubtedly have multiple suitors looking to pry him from the Lakers — especially after stat lines like Sunday’s. Both the Lakers and Reaves’ camp have interest in Reaves re-signing in Los Angeles, according to multiple league sources who were granted anonymity so that they coud speak freely. The max the Lakers can offer Reaves is a four-year, $50.8 million contract if they chose to use his Early Bird Rights, but they also have the power to match any contract he signs with another team.

    The coming weeks will ultimately determine how the situation plays out. The Lakers have 10 regular-season games remaining, and possibly some postseason games as well. In the meantime, Reaves is thriving as his role expands and his confidence grows down the stretch of this season.

    “It’s special,” Reaves said of playing for the Lakers. “I mean, I grew up a Lakers fan. To do it for this organization, especially, is surreal. Sometimes I gotta stop and really think about what I am doing. … All I’m really happy about is the win.”


    https://bleacherreport.com/articles...g-for-an-arenas-rule-showdown-with-the-lakers

    In Reaves' case, the most another team can offer in starting salary is the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which projects to be $11.4 million for 2023-24.

    Via Reaves' Early Bird rights, Los Angeles would be able to start his next contract at roughly $11.9 million (TBD). The Warriors didn't have that option in 2003, but the Arenas Rule will protect the Lakers 20 years later.

    There is a catch. A team with cap room can offer Reaves up to four years, with the last two years as high as a maximum salary. The offering franchise would need up to $24.7 million in cap room, but a max deal would have the following structure:

    Year 1: $11,368,000 (non-taxpayer mid-level exception)
    Year 2: $11,936,400 (five percent raise)
    Year 3: $36,850,000 (as if he were paid the maximum in years 1 and 2)
    Year 4: $38,525,000 (4.5 percent raise)
    Total: $144,050,000

    Reaves may not get near the max, but he could be worth a price similar to what the Atlanta Hawks just paid to Bogdan Bogdanović in a four-year, $68 million extension. A team with $17 million in cap space could give Reaves a salary of $11.4 million for 2023-24 that would then bump to about $21.9 million for 2025-26.

    […] The process for restricted free agency cannot start until an offer sheet is signed on July 6. In this case, the Lakers wouldn't have to decide on matching Reaves until July 8. How many of the listed teams will wait that long, knowing that the bulk of the 2023 free-agent class will be long gone by then?

    That's an advantage to the Lakers, but it only takes one team to make Reaves' free agency a lot more complicated.

    […] Assuming the NBA's Early Bird number comes in at $11.9 million, the Lakers could give him a contract worth up to $53.3 million over four seasons (an average of $13.3 million).

    Would that be enough to prevent Reaves from soliciting an offer? If he can get a deal closer to the Bogdanović extension, it might not. And a team like the Spurs may be happy to push the Lakers, knowing that they either net a good player or make Los Angeles pay a premium.

    […] Expect Reaves back in Los Angeles next season. Still, the team may need to sacrifice someone else in the name of luxury taxes (which some believe led to Alex Caruso's departure to the Chicago Bulls) because of an avoidable and predictable contract snafu in 2021.


    https://www.spotrac.com/news/next-contract-series-austin-reaves-1816/

    For example, here’s what a four-year, $80 million offer sheet to an Arenas free agent would look like this offseason in terms of salary structure:

    2023-24: $11,368,000
    2024-25: $11,936,400
    2025-26: $27,724,010
    2026-27: $28,971,590
    Total: four years, $80,000,000

    If you think this deal looks different from most you are used to, you would be correct. The first two seasons are pretty standard. It’s the NTMLE amount, followed by a 5% raise. After that, it gets a little complicated. That’s where the “poison pill” descriptor comes into play, because of the huge jump in salary from Year 2 to Year 3.

    How you determine the salaries for the last two season is you subtract the sum of Years 1 and 2 from the total salary. Then, you split the remainder over the final two seasons, with a 4.5% bump in salary from Year 3 to Year 4.

    It’s the above process that makes an Arenas offer sheet a complicated one. The player still gets paid in full, but their team is allowed to match the offer by using the NTMLE (or Early Bird rights, if applicable) to do so. But there’s one more set of complications that matter here.

    For the team signing the Arenas player to an offer sheet, the cap hits for them would be the average of the total salary over four years. Sticking with our four-year, $80 million example, the signing team would have cap hits of $20 million per season on their cap sheet.

    The matching team is not only given the chance to match, but they are also given the ability to determine how they want the contract to hit their cap sheet, if they are under the cap when they match. They can use the actual salary structure as laid out above as the cap hit. Or the team can choose to use the average salary as the cap hit. If the team is over the cap and matches, they must use the structure where they match with the Early Bird exception or the NTMLE.

    One final thing to note: If a team chooses to match, whatever version of cap hits they choose become that player’s cap hit for the life of the deal. This includes if they are traded to another team.

    With all that in mind, let’s get back to Austin Reaves and his next contract.

    RE-SIGNING WITH THE LAKERS USING THE EARLY BIRD EXCEPTION

    The Lakers are pointing towards being an over-the-cap team this coming offseason. Instead of having $30 million or so in cap space, the pre-deadline trades LA made puts them in position to re-sign recently acquired players like D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura, and Austin Reaves.

    This is where it’s fortunate that the Lakers have Early Bird rights for Reaves. While not as flexible as full Bird rights, Early Bird rights give LA a good chance to re-sign Reaves to a reasonable salary.

    This is what the maximum contract the Lakers can give Reaves projects at, should they use his Early Bird Rights:

    2023-24: $11,331,600
    2024-25: $12,238,000
    2025-26: $13,144,656
    2026-27: $14,051,184
    Total: four years, $50,765,568

    Early Bird rights allows for a team to give the player a first-year salary of 105% of the average salary from the prior season. From there, the player can receive up to 8% raises. A contract using Early Bird rights must be for a minimum of two years, and can be for up to four years.

    SIGNING WITH ANOTHER TEAM AS A RESTRICTED FREE AGENT

    This is where the Arenas Provision comes into play. We used $80 million as our example to explain the Arenas Provision, but that’s probably a little rich for Austin Reaves. But could an average salary of $15 million, for a total of $60 million, be in play? We’ve seen shooters get paid handsomely in the past. Shooters who can do a little more? Those guys always get paid.

    If Reaves got a $60 million offer sheet over four years, here’s how that could look given the Arenas Provision:

    2023-24: $11,368,000
    2024-25: $11,936,400
    2025-26: $17,944,059
    2026-27: $18,751,542
    Total: four years, $60,000,000

    Remember: This is the actual salary structure. The Lakers could choose to match this structure using the NTMLE and assume the above as cap hits each season.

    For the team signing Reaves to an offer sheet, they would assume the average-salary structure above as the cap hits for each season. That would look like this:

    2023-24: $15,000,000
    2024-25: $15,000,000
    2025-26: $15,000,000
    2026-27: $15,000,000
    Total: four years, $60,000,000

    (Note: The Lakers could also use Early Bird rights to match the salary structure for Reaves. That structure would look a lot like the one laid out under the Early Bird section, but with a similar bump from Year 2 to Year 3 in an Arenas offer sheet match.)

    […] If you add it all up, the Los Angeles Lakers can keep Austin Reaves. Nothing should really prevent that from happening.

    If another team wants to play a staring contest with Los Angeles, they better be prepared to come with a big enough offer to make the Lakers blink. We’re talking something probably approaching the $75-$80 million range.
     
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  9. highpost1388

    highpost1388 Member

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    I haven't watched a lot of him play. I've seen highlights, but when you watch highlights and compare them to someone you're watching play a full game, you get a really skewed perspective. I wasn't blown away by him, but I don't hate the idea either. I just can't see him leaving the Lakers because I thought he wanted to be there.
     
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  10. lakersuck2

    lakersuck2 Member

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    They probably max out at that 15M/year contract. And he definitely will pass up higher offers to stay. It'd probably take something absurd like in the 25M ballpark to pry him and that would probably be too much for most teams. When it comes to role and fan reaction he has it perfect right now. He's the 3rd best Laker and with AD and Bron out a lot he's their best player most nights. And Lakers fans love to hate on their role players but Reeves has had an almost unanimously positive reaction thus far. Once he gets paid he'll be living the life.
     
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  11. Mathloom

    Mathloom Consumption is a waste of time.

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    Interesting. Just doing a little more digging: he's a slightly below average defender on the 12th best defense in the NBA. 24 years old will probably put on some muscle. Like a more aggressive KJ maybe. That's pretty good considering he has some game on offense and full role player toolkit.

    I really like his personality and character and what he would bring to this roster. We talk about team culture all the time and for me this is just as much a culture move as it is a talent move. I want this roster to have some high character players and he could be one of those guys. Like a non-dirty Pat Bev in that sense.

    Even if you want Harden, I'd argue give me Reaves over KPJ and Christopher in the 3-man rotation with Harden and Green. That's solid for the playoffs.

    Let's say we don't get Harden or Wemby or Scoot: you of course supplement the team several ways. We can make the play ins. For example sign Reaves and Dwight Powell and along with Tate now we have 3 high character roleplayers on the squad:

    Sengun/Garuba (Sengun as primary playmaker)
    Jabari/KJ
    Tari/Tate (compete in training camp)
    Green/KPJ
    Reaves/KPJ (Reaves as secondary playmaker)


    This team would be fortunate to make the playins, but we're now a good trade away from that goal and with the more organized hard working team can convince trade targets to want to come to Houston (they're usually players demanding trades). Ideally we can grab a better PG than Van Vleet and we have a playoff squad imo. I'm placing a lot of faith in the development of our youngsters of course.
     
    #31 Mathloom, Mar 21, 2023
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2023
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  12. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    In 2 years you would want to be paying this guy 25 million a year way more than Harden 50 million.
     
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  13. lionaire

    lionaire Member

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  14. Mathloom

    Mathloom Consumption is a waste of time.

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    Also in 2 years: if we want, we will be able to acquire Harden and picks for our least valuable youngsters/contracts. There's no way he's going to be worth $50m lol. It's hilarious how willing people are to lock us into that contract right when we have so many opportunities in the coming years.

    If we were a dead end team without picks I could see it but that's literally not us.
     
  15. DatRocketFan

    DatRocketFan Member

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    We need a pg more than anything. Kpj ain't one, reaves ain't one and tyty is unknown.
    In a team full of youngsters, an actual pg will do wonders for everybody's development. Green and smith would have progressed a lot further if they had someone like harden.

    If u want to win right now u sign the best playmaker possible and worry about his decline later. He is not Westbrick.

    The other alternative is drafting scoot. This path is a lot more risky since he might b a bust, his skillset might not translate, etc. Etc.

    There's not really any good alternative pg in the free agency pool
     
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  16. carl_herrera

    carl_herrera Member

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    $25M/yr for Austin Reaves has got to be one of the worst ideas I’ve ever heard.

    Dude is about to turn 25 and is not a top 150 player in the NBA.

    He’s a bench guy having a good shooting season.

    KJ is scoring more points, is also highly efficient, and is 3 years younger. Should we give him $25 million?

    What about Isaiah Joe, 18 pts per 36 on 65% TS?

    How about we give the bag to Collin Sexton. Younger, and getting more points and assists on 51/41/82.

    Come on.
     
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  17. Houston77

    Houston77 COOKIES AND CAKE, MY TEAM BAKED!
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    I agree that 25 mil is too much, but 18 - 20? Sure.

    I’d consider giving KJ a nice contract if he played good defense. But he doesn’t. On the other hand:
    2452F7B7-9591-452D-AF07-8258A91E2A63.jpeg

    That’s what makes Reaves intriguing. He’s efficient AND plays solid D.
     
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  18. sogood.

    sogood. Member

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    Are you straight up judging how good a player is by using basic raw stats lol

    Join the rest of us in 2023, this ain't 2008.
     
    #38 sogood., Mar 21, 2023
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2023
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  19. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Damn fans are THIRSTY....... after the last three years.

    18 million a year? 4 years and 80 million for Hillbilly Kobe?

    [​IMG]

    The key is to be the team that FINDS someone like Austin Reaves and not the team that pays him........
     
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  20. PWR

    PWR Member

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