We’re all curious to see how Swift will produce as the starting PF for the Rockets this year. For his career in Memphis, Stro’s averaged 9 points and 5 rebounds, causing him to be labeled an underachiever with potential. As we all know, however, he’s mostly been asked to back-up Pau Gasol, and play out of position at C behind Lorenzen Wright. With off-season boredom affecting me hard, I did some digging and cumulated Stro's statistics as a starter over his first five years in Memphis to see how he performed when given the opportunity (and in hopes of getting a glimpse of what to expect in Houston). Taken together, it represents nearly a season’s worth of starts (70 total), with the most coming in the 2002-03 season (26 of the 70). The results are in the table below. In these 70 games, while playing 28 mpg, he’s averaged 13 points, 7 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and 1.1 steals. Not too shabby. More specifically, as a starting PF in 43 of those games (his natural position), those numbers are closer to 14 points, 7 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, and 1.2 steals, again in 28 mpg. Even better. Keep in mind, of course, that these games are scattered throughout his first five years in the league, and only represent about 1/5 of his total games played. Also keep in mind that, as the table shows, his production as a starter varied significantly from year to year. That said, given that his play could be the X-factor for our team next season, I certainly hope that his inconsistency in production can be chalked up to a young player being unable to handle an often changing, and usually underwhelming, role within a team. Also worth attention is the fact that the year in which Stro’ received the most starts (26 in 2003), he had his best output as a starter, giving you 14 points, 8 boards, 2.3 blocks and 1.1 steals in 29 mpg. Followed more closely, 14 of those starts were at power forward, for which he gave you 17 points, 9 rebounds, 2.4 blocks and 1.1 steals in 31 mpg. Overall, I definitely like what I see, and although he hasn’t yet developed the reputation of being an imposing one-on-one defender, his stats certainly show the potential. If given a consistent 35 mpg next year, without improving his game beyond the production of his “underachieving years”, 15 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks, and about 1.5 steals seems very feasible right off the bat. And, if he actually improves… (well, I’ll let you think about that for the rest of the off-season)
Great work. Today was a long day at work, and I often found myself thinking about how Stro will fit with the team. This makes me feel good.
Excellent post Varunan. These stats are highly encouraging! I wonder what his stats per 48 would be as starter.
If he can average 15pts, 9rebs and 2+ blocks a game while shooting close to .500% from the floor and playing JVG style of defense then who will be the better Power Forward? Pau Gasol or Stromile Swift. I am not saying Stromile is better than Pau but he is a better athlete and while Pau blocks shots well he is a bit of a powder puff on defense. But if... and this is a big if....Stromile does put up those types of numbers this discussion is going come up and the argument will have some serious validity that just maybe Memphis did not keep the better power forward. Just something to think about.
So if we can get 12/8/2 blocks from Stro and 10/6 from Juwon, we're getting 22/14 from our PF tandem. Who needs Elton Brand?
That would be nice. Would you settle for 3 more boards from Yao instead? As he said himself, it's going to be a lot easier for him inside.
In addition, Stromile never had guys like Yao and TMac taking the other team's attention away from him. He should be able to get 15/8/2 easily and that is all we need.
7 boards in 28 minutes is pretty good. Obviously 10+ rpg would be ideal, but 8-9 rpg along with Yao's 8-9 rpg would probably be adequate, and might be a bit more realistic as well.
Good job!! Im just worried about him fouling out of games. He's going to have to be aggressive to make up for Yao. Im hoping that this wil not cause him to pick up fouls too often and too early.
Nice job, V-. Thanks for putting in the work on table. I think those are some very realistic numbers, but with Yao and Tracy working with him on the floor they should be even better. It should be a year of improvements to say the least.
Good work. With the added incentive to prove himself and being in a new situation, I hope we see Swift fulfill his potential. Stuart
That's a pretty impressive Varunan. You wouldn't happen to be a data analyst or something for a living would you?
It's probably actually gonna be a lot easier for Stromile to get the 3 extra boards. Yao is the one that is going to draw the attention and Yao is the one who space rebounds along with the fundamental skill of blocking out. Swift uses his athleticism to board. He should have more space to operate with. I am looking for Yao to push it to 9-10 boards a game, and Swift to push it to 10.
This equates to: 30 minutes = 13.8 pts, 7.4 rebs, 2.0 blk, 1.2 stl 35 minutes = 16.1 pts, 8.6 rebs, 2.4 blk, 1.3 stl 40 minutes = 18.4 pts, 9.8 rebs, 2.7 blk, 1.5 stl. I think he will get between 30-35 minutes getting time as PF and some as backup C when the opposing team is small/quick and Deke is disadvantaged. I'd be suprised if his points came out similar as those are based on 12+ shots and I doubt we will have Swift taking more shots than Yao. Shot the ball Yao But 13 pts, 8.6 rebs, 2.4 blk would be very sweet.
Take three of those points, turn them into rebounds, see if he can defend Duncan, and we've got the best power foward our team could ever need.
