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Strength of Victory - What teams to root for...

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by today, Dec 17, 2011.

  1. today

    today Contributing Member

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    If we end up tying with NE at 13-3, the 1st round bye will come down to the strength of victory (SoV) tiebreaker.

    SoV Definition
    The combined winning percentage of opponents that a team has beaten. If a team has beaten a division opponent twice, then the record of that division opponent is counted twice in the SoV calculation.

    SoV Calculation Assumptions
    I'm assuming that both the Texans and Patriots finish the year at 13-3.

    Defeated Opponents
    Patriots: MIA(2), SD, OAK, NYJ(2), DAL, KC, PHI, IND, WAS, BUF, DEN
    Texans: IND(2), MIA, PIT, TEN(2), JAC(2), CLE, TB, ATL, CIN, CAR

    Current SoV (through Sat, 12/17)
    Patriots (0.4198)
    Texans (0.3955)

    Our top priority is obviously to see BAL and NE lose this week, but if they don't, here's the next best thing:

    Week 15 Games
    (teams underlined will help our SoV in relation to NE)
    *********************************
    L JAC @ ATL
    L DAL @ TB
    MIA @ BUF
    TEN @ IND
    GB @ KC
    CIN @ STL
    WAS @ NYG
    DET @ OAK
    NYJ @ PHI
    CLE @ ARI
    BAL @ SD
    PIT @ SF

    Week 15 Comments
    The biggest game this week is Dal @ TB. NE needs Dallas to win, and we need TB to win, so this game is of double importance. The other interesting game this week is MIA @ BUF, because no matter what happens in this game, NE will increase their SoV lead against us. The best case scenario is for MIA to win, which would increase the NE SoV lead the least.

    This site has some spreadsheet links for those interested: http://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/nb3d4/excel_spreadsheet_to_determine_strength_of/
     
    #1 today, Dec 17, 2011
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2011
    4 people like this.
  2. Svpernaut

    Svpernaut Contributing Member

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    Awesome work man, thanks! Rep'd.
     
  3. ItsMyFault

    ItsMyFault Contributing Member

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    Yeah I was wondering about this. Hopefully it doesn't come down to this, but this thread is really informative.
     
  4. showa13

    showa13 Member

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    I thought if us, NE and BAL are tied at 13-3 it goes to divisional records? Either way this is a great way to keep track of everything
     
  5. today

    today Contributing Member

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    Nope, divisional records don't come into play. I have a detailed post on it here: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?p=6466516#post6466516 (see the quoted section at the very bottom of the post)
     
  6. showa13

    showa13 Member

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  7. ascaptjack

    ascaptjack Member

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    realpatriots New England Patriots
    Patriots announce 5 players downgraded to out: Patrick Chung, Shane Vereen, Brandon Spikes, Sebastian Vollmer & Deion Branch

    Go Broncos!
     
  8. Sman2k10

    Sman2k10 Member

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    But don't the texans need the ravens to lose since they beat us?
     
  9. Svpernaut

    Svpernaut Contributing Member

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    Yes, to pass the Ravens they must lose a game. The Patriots are very close to us in strength of schedule that if the right teams win, we may pass them even if they don't lose.

    A loss for either team is what we need. Since we beat the Steeler's and they beat New England I'm not sure if the Steeler's winning out would win or hurt us more because it would also boost New England's SOS.

    Just be a fan of Tebow this week and we'll leave it at that.
     
  10. today

    today Contributing Member

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    Yes, that would be the top priority.

     
  11. today

    today Contributing Member

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    Crappy game tonight by the Bucs... We're now .0243 behind NE's SoV. Updated the original post with the new results.
     
  12. today

    today Contributing Member

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    Interesting scenario that I hadn't thought about, so this is what I came up with when I researched it...

    If Pit wins out and Bal finishes at 12-4, then it would be NE/HOU/PIT tied at 13-3. PIT would be eliminated first based upon the fact that they have 3 conference loses, while NE and HOU would just have 2 losses. NE/HOU would then proceed to the SoV tiebreaker to determine the #1 and #2 seeds.
     
  13. Cannonball

    Cannonball Contributing Member

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    Basically, we want the teams we've beaten to win and the teams New England has beaten to lose.
     
  14. today

    today Contributing Member

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    Yup, you got it.
     
  15. Pocket Rockets

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    Our SoV will take a huge hit if we beat Indy so not sure if passing NE in SoV is possible...
     
  16. RedRedemption

    RedRedemption Contributing Member

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    We've had the easier schedule. If we don't pass up NE in record-wise then we don't deserve to.
     
  17. Cannonball

    Cannonball Contributing Member

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    It really doesn't matter anymore. If we end up tied with NE, we will win the tiebreaker based on conference record. The only good think about our loss to Carolina is that it didn't affect or conference record. All of NE's remaining games are in conference so if they drop one, they'll have a worse conference record than us (assuming both teams win all other games).

    And if Baltimore drops a game as well and there's a 3 way tie, we get the #1 seed based on conference record.

    If Baltimore drops a game but NE doesn't, we'd be the #3 seed because we'll lose the 2 team tiebreaker with Baltimore based on head to head.
     
    #17 Cannonball, Dec 18, 2011
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2011
  18. today

    today Contributing Member

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    Ha, I was coming in here to make all 3 of those points... Thread closed...

    GO DENVER AND SAN DIEGO!!!!!
     

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