So, basically, 49% of the time (44/90).... a top 10 pick doesnt even net you a STARTER... something to consider for the pro tanking crowd. Now package that NY pick and let's get some power in the post, Morey!
LOL - vs picking in the teens which has a 99% chance of failing to get us a franchise player. But the odds are in a 100 years we will eventually get 1.
So, what does it say about worth then? It looks like the #1 pick is worth about as much as Kevin Martin in efficiency. Can we trade him for a first overall?
This is interesting, the only thing is that it's a little early to pass final judgement on anyone drafted after '05, and that takes up half the data. Does reinforce what I already thought, that it's go all out with losing or don't bother, not much point if you're not drafting top 5. A while back I did a bit of a study of draft spots from '84-'01 that I thought about publishing here (and still may when I get time to clean it up). I used a weighted win shares metric to put a value on a guy's career in terms of both longevity and efficiency. FYI, the 'average' career arcs (closest least-squares match to average longevity and effectiveness) for some sample picks that I calculated: Spoiler 1. Chris Webber 2. Kenny Anderson 3. Shareef Abdur-rahim 4. Stephon Marbury 5. Mitch Richmond 6. Joe Kleine 7. Tim Thomas 8. Larry Hughes 9. Clarence Weatherspoon 10. Erick Dampier 14. Malik Sealy 15. Anthony Peeler 20. Dion Glover 25. Alaa Abelnaby 30. Marco Jaric Historically it does reach 'slim pickings' pretty fast, as in this thread's OP.
This is where <a href="http://rockets.clutchfans.net/2479/kevin-mchale-sports-analytics/">Kevin McHale would say</a>, "So analytics tells me picking higher in the draft is better?" (BTW, I agree with your thread title, larsv8... personally I feel robbed)
morale - if yer draftin in the teens - u might get a roleplayer... but probably better off packaging it and trying to trade to upgrade for a proven commodity..
Personally I've seen nothing that indicates that morale on this team is soaring - not from the team or the fans. Lets see if March 15th makes me eat crow. Otherwise odds are I'll be dead, my children will be dead but maybe...just maybe...my grandchildren might see a franchise player on the Rockets again.
Interesting post, thanks. So in nine years, 17 franchise players. Of those, 5 were number 1's, ten were from 2 through 6, with 2 outliers. Only one number 2 pick. It still amazes me how difficult it is to predict a players ability to play in the NBA.
Yes, just like Pau Gasol... but hopefully not 31 with an 18.7M+ cap hit for the next 3 years.... Josh Smith? Hellyeh! Scola, Bud, Ny pick, 2nd rd pick.... package it up!
I guess you could now throw Aldridge into the franchise cat. Durant and LA are the only #2 that actually did something (coincidentally both came from UT).
