I have a hard time thinking the market isn't overbought at this point. I am sure some of the stocks that oversold haven't recovered to overbought territory, but the market as a whole seems too optimistic (I believe the yield curve is pricing in a cut by Q4 which seems premature). The higher interest rates are still working their way through the company forecasts (since a decent chunk of them do fixed rate bond offerings and new long term issuances have been declining, something will have to give). If rates stay higher longer than the yield curve implies (which seems reasonable to me as I don't think the Fed is going to cut as fast when a recession does come and risk triggering inflation again). The counterpoint is that I do think the supply chain disruptions ending will help a lot with inflation so....who knows what to do... I'm looking to put some $ to work but feel there will probably be a better entry point than right now.
Jan effect; AMD up 33% in Jan so far. an earnings beat helps. around Xmas, had sold this Feb PUT spread, (-65 strike, +55 strike); it is deep in-the-money; will nurse it towards being worthless at expiration, 2 weeks away.. just sold march CALL spread (-75 strike, +85 strike)---collecting a premium of $5.35---defining my max risk of $4.65. this spread has a good chance of being worthless at Mar expiration
My leaky gut feels like this is a repeat of 2020. I might look for bargains a week before March if this continues.
he didnt say anything unexpected. made it seem like the fed believed the worse of it was behind us. i'd expect a pull back but a think the low has been set.
Coin popped like a meme stock off news from a lawsuit dismissal. I guess they can maintain momentum as a proxy for crypto, but it doesn't seem like people are using it other than an exit window for fiat. Gold bugs might start feeling vindication if stagflation numbers continues over recession
