I was talking with my friend, and I sent him the link to francis's ROY page. Alot of those Stats compare him to other previous rookies, etc. He didn't think that the statistics were THAT impressive. That stevie was one of only 7 rookies to ever average 15, 5, and 5. He told me that he is the team, like Gary Payton. He said that he couldn't carry a team by himself. I said that next season, Steve's stats blow-up and he get's more assists and more points. My friend argued that his points may even go down, b/c those shot attempts would go to other players. Can you guys give me your take on how you think Steve will evolve? Will his numbers get worse with the addition of a big-man, so that Steve won't have to rebound as much? Thanx- Elie17 ------------------
Francis will have an excellent year for the next 13 seasons. Next year - 25 pts; 6 boards; 7 assists. As he gets older, and more mature, his shot will get better, meaning that when 10 shots may have gotten him 10 points before, it will now get him 15. Rudy & co. want him to shoot more, not less. This will easily increase his stats further. His assists will go up as there are more good players to pass the ball to . . . more scorers. The only area we should worry about with Stevie is defense. Although, he seems to be very committed to working hard to get much better at his defense, and I bet that he'll be known in the end as a good defender, rather than an adequate one, as he is now. Francis has the makings of the next Allen Iverson scoring with Jason Kidd Assists and Penny Hardaway rebounding. Excellent player, excellent future.
Yeah, I looked at other good PGs' rookie stats a while back, and Stevie's didn't blow the others out of the water by any means, esp. that assist-to-turnover ratio. I really hope he can cut down those turnovers. PGs we all probably consider Stevie's inferior like Kenny Anderson, Damon Stoudamire, etc. have had better seasons (not sure about if Kenny's included his rookie year). The stats may be a bit irrelevant, though, since each player is in a different situation. I do remember it being said at the end of the season that Rudy T wanted Stevie to shoot more next season, so that may be some indication that he will score more. I'm just grateful we actually have a legit franchise player to build around. I don't really care if he scores more than Marbury or the rest of his competition as long as he can get this team to win! ------------------
Look at the things that Stevie can do with the ball though. Alley oops to your point guard? Unreal. The rebounds are also amazing. Who the heck, besides Francis, averaged 15/5/5 this year? I'm one of those who thanks that Francis is more of a 2, than a 1. His turnover-assist ratio was wretched. BTW, 25 pts per game is completelyl unrealistic. You don't see averages jump that much very often, unless they're crappy to begin with. My hopes for Francis next year (reasonable): 20, 7 assists, 2.5 to, and 6 rebs. If he could do that, he'd be one of the top 3 PG's in the league. Remember: PG's usually don't start out as well as players at other positions. Look at a current star pg, and you'll see what I mean. ------------------
He'll be a career-double-double man. I'd say 19-20ppg (although he can score 35 on any given night) + 10+ assists + 4-7 rebounds. (OK, maybe only 6-9 assists, but still a badass...) This man will be an all star for years to come. The first year - when he generals the West in the All-Stars at PG - will be the best. ------------------
Stevie's points will definetely go up. PGs who don't even try to score end up with 14-15/game (ala Jason Kidd & John Stockton are definetely pass 1st players). His assists will probably be around 8/game, because I honestly see him shooting more than passing. He could easily get 10/game if we had a dominant big man, but I don't see that happening real soon. Hopefully his TO's will go down. Also I hope his rebounds just stay the same. I don't want him to get banged around much more than this year, but I love the fact that he goes & gets the ball. ------------------
Steve will average 21ppg, 8asst, 5reb, & 2to next year. This will be enough for him to be considered one of the top 3 PG in the league. Remember that Iverson doesn't play PG so we shouldn't expect Stevies scoring to ever be close to those levels. 21ppg out os your PG is about as much as you should ever hope for. Anything more and he probably wouldn't be getting the team involved. Just ask New Jersey. ------------------
Few of them have 4 TOs a game though. A few have over three like Tim Hardaway and Jason Kidd, and they aren't all that bad. I would definitely take those stats, Haven, and they don't seem that unreasonable. 2.5 TOs would be great, though it might be a stretch. Turnovers are always bad I know, but how terrible is it to have a point guard who turns it over that much? How much of an impact does it have on the team? One funny thing I noticed when looking at Allen Iverson's stats is his turnovers actually haven't gone down since his switch to shooting guard. Then, there are quite a few non-ball handling stars who turn it over a bit. Is it worse to have a PG who turns it over than your main guy at another position? ------------------
From the ROY stats page Elie17 mentioned: http://www.nba.com/Rockets/francis_roy.html "His assists average is also higher than Cousy, West, Stockton and Payton, while his turnover average is lower than Thomas and Magic Johnson." Hmmm... More assists than Stockton and fewer turnovers than Magic (as rookies). I don't know about y'all but that puts my mind at ease somewhat about what direction his numbers are likely to go. ------------------ work like you don't need the money dance like no one's watching love like you've never been hurt
"His assists average is also higher than Cousy, West, Stockton and Payton, while his turnover average is lower than Thomas and Magic Johnson." Although I would like to believe this, I would be interested in seeing their TO or Asts/minute than these stats. If I remember correctly stockton only played about 1/2 of his teams minutes his rookike year. It is too easy to confuse facts and figures depending on the situation. I know when I compared Stevies Asts & Tos/minute a few weeks ago that he was the worst, or near the worst of active PGs in the league and his ast/to ratio was pretty poor against other rookie PGs as well. I know Stevie is a great talent, and I hope he evolves into another Isiah Thomas, but Stevie had an opportuninty not many other rookies have. To step in and be the man their rookie year. ------------------
Players averaging over 15 pts, 5 assists, and 5 rebounds per game: Michael Finley Anfernee Hardaway Steve Francis Grant Hill Gary Payton If you knock the requirements down to 14.5, 4.5, and 4.5 you can add : Kobe Bryant Kevin Garnett Chris Webber Toni Kukoc (wow, he had a decent year I guess) ------------------ ?
DoD, If you change the requirements to: 15.5ppg, 3.5rpg, 2.5 apg we can include Mobley, too. woo hoo. (Man, he had a good year!) [This message has been edited by heypartner (edited May 08, 2000).]
STATS SAY NOTHING! if you watch Steve play, you already know he's someting special. i remember watching him for the first time. he was playing for Maryland... he had the ball at the top of the key - did a seriously quick crossover - faked out the defender - and poped a midrange jump shot. i was like, 'who is this guy?' anyways, this guy is going to be a great point guard. yes, i said POINT GUARD. he's such a good creater and has very good instincts to be a pg, i think that's why he'll stay at the 1, especially if we still have Shandon & Mobley for years to come. remember guys, he's just a rookie, and he made alot of rookie mistakes (ie. trying to do too much, making poor decisions). once we get more talent around him, and he gets more experience, he will be one of the best (if not the best) pg in the game ------------------
I think that Francis can really become a great player in this league. Like all of you were saying: "stats don't mean anything". that's precisely true, and the things that do mean something are talent, composure, the willingness to fight, and a winner's mentality. i think that francis has all of those qualities, and he'll prove the winner's part soon (hopefully). the main problem of course is his turnovers. it's true he did have bad decision making, but there were a couple of games where he'd go out and rake up about 10 or 12 assists and not get any turnovers. that says a whole lot. if he could go out and do that as a rookie, he'll definitly be able to do that more often with some experience backing him up. especially if he wants to make it to the playoffs. ------------------ "When the mind is thinking, it is talking to itself." .... Plato
Here we are saying the stats show Steve's overall numbers to be among the elite of the league and you're saying stats say nothing. Then you go on and tell us how great he is. What am I missing here? lol. ------------------ ?
Dr of Dunk, I'm just saying that people in this BBS always get too obsessed with stats! At times, it seems that people just read the sports page and then come on here and make their comments, instead of actually watching the game. ------------------
dream_team, I'm with ya. But, DoD has compiled an awesomely flexible database, and he's using it to answer direct questions, directly. Now, let me direct myself to the submit button, before my intent gets misdirected.
Dream_Team: Your assertion that stats mean nothing is absolutely false. While it's true that the stats themselves have no INHERENT value, they're an abstract, imperfect representation of things accomplished on the court. Of course, they have flaws-there are "intangibles" that can't be shown statistically. At the same time, take a player who averages 20pts per game, and another one who averages 3pts per game... and guess which one I'd rather have on my team? There are many ways of decoding a players ability-scouting games and the combine #'s to name two others... but stats are a legitimate tool for analyzing players. These stats don't come from out of the blue-they're earned during games. Oh, I know there's the occasional player who always manages to inflate his stats like Ced Ceballos, but then... there are also those players who look like htey have all the talent in the world, and never end up producing. That's what stats are: an objective measurement of production. Don't toss them out the window because they're overdone. ------------------ [This message has been edited by haven (edited May 09, 2000).]
