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Statistical Musings : Does getting steals necessarily mean you have a good defense?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Dr of Dunk, Jul 16, 2000.

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  1. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    We all talk about having to cut down on turnovers to win and conversely, forcing turnovers as being a sign of a good defense. Well, we know the Rockets pretty much sucked at both last year, too. I began looking over some turnover stats from last year on a team-by-team basis and came up with some really strange findings. Either the numbers I'm seeing are completely whack, or forcing turnovers isn't all it's cracked up to be. Perhaps some of you could help me figure the following out :

    In terms of forcing turnovers, you would think the better teams would force more TO's since they have better defenses (generally speaking). Can you name the top 11 teams in forcing turnovers last season? HINT : out of the top 11, I see only 4 that made the playoffs. ANOTHER HINT : Portland, the Lakers, and Indiana weren't any of the 4.

    To compound "the wierdness", of the bottom 10 teams in this stat, 6 were playoff teams (yes, the Lakers, Portland, and Indiana were all in THIS bunch).

    The reason I threw this out there was because I see in several threads people saying forcing turnovers, or looking at it from the other side, getting steals is a sign of good defense. Well, obviously good defense is a lot more than forcing turnovers.

    HERE'S ANOTHER :

    How about forcing the opposition to miss their shots, a.k.a., Opposition FG%? Of the top 11 teams, all but 2 made the playoffs. This may be a better indicator of defense (team defense, anyway).

    FYI, the Rockets ranked 19th out of 29 teams in Opposition FG%, and ranked next-to-last (tied with Indiana) in forcing TO's. Only Atlanta was worse.

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    Just shut up and post
     
    #1 Dr of Dunk, Jul 16, 2000
  2. BobFinn*

    BobFinn* Member

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    I'll take a stab at it D0D [​IMG]


    1 Boston
    2 Philadelphia
    3 Sacramento
    4 Phoenix
    5 Orlando
    6 Charlotte
    7 Golden State
    8 New Jersey
    9 Cleveland
    10 Milwaukee
    11 Toronto
    12 Detroit
    13 Seattle
    14 Chicago
    15 Portland
    16 Utah
    17 Minnesota
    18 San Antonio
    19 L.A. Lakers
    20 Houston
    21 Vancouver
    22 Washington
    23 Dallas
    24 Miami
    25 L.A. Clippers
    26 Indiana
    27 Denver
    28 New York
    29 Atlanta


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    "Get up, stand up. Stand up for your right"-Bob Marley
     
    #2 BobFinn*, Jul 16, 2000
  3. CriscoKidd

    CriscoKidd Member

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    I also believe opposition FG% is a much better stat to use to gauge a defense. I dont think Houston has ever really been that great on forcing turnovers, but I think for awhile they were good at forcing low percentage shots. SA has a very good defense with that stat. I think Philly has a good defense that is based on getting TOs though. And Seattle USED to too. Perhaps it depends on the style of defense played.

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    I am so exasperated that I could expectorate.
     
    #3 CriscoKidd, Jul 16, 2000
  4. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    Bobo, it was a rhetorical question... and my gosh you got 'em all right!!!!! [​IMG]

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    #4 Dr of Dunk, Jul 16, 2000
  5. BobFinn*

    BobFinn* Member

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    golly gee, did I really [​IMG] Thank you NBA.com

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    #5 BobFinn*, Jul 16, 2000
  6. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Member

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    The thing about steals is that it is really not that big of a stat in terms of actual size. I mean, the steals leader for the year averages something like 2 steals a game or some realy low number like that. Thus, any one team or another can have a player or two that play superb steal defense yet poor overall defense. To play good overall defense, though, you need to have a team that overall forces the opposition to have a harder time scoring. A lower FG percentage can often have more of an affect on the opposing team than keeping them from a shot or two by getting one more steal a game. Also, this stat deos become more serious if you are the type of team that turns the ball over a lot yet also fails to get many steals. Then the small disparaity gets a little bigger and can have more of an effect. Blocked shots is a similar stat in some cases, as with Atlanta and Shawn Bradley.

    One note, though, Philadelphia's defense isnt really based on forcing turnovers. WHile this is a huge part of their defense, they play excellent defense overall as a team and Ratliff is the man down low intimidating players and blocking shots too.

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    When I die I want to go peacefully like my grandfather. Not screaming like the passengers in the back seat!
     
    #6 JayZ750, Jul 16, 2000
  7. Gascon

    Gascon Member

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    Dr of Dunk....


    No, there's a helluva lot more to playing defense in the NBA than getting steals.

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    "I'll take a Dream Shake for two, please."
     
    #7 Gascon, Jul 16, 2000
  8. RunninRaven

    RunninRaven Member
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    Yes, i agree. I seem to remember one Rodrick Rhodes who was quite apt at acquiring steals (lightning fast hands), but was not all that good of a defenseman.

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    #8 RunninRaven, Jul 16, 2000
  9. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Member

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    posterboy of this would be Allen Iverson. 3rd in the league in steals. AWFUL defense.

    Bob* what was that a list of? Forcing Turnovers? Didn't DoD say the Lakers, Portland, and Indiana were in the bottom ten of that?

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    The more lefties on your team, the better.
    Collier is Seven Foot and Left Handed. How can you go wrong?
    Trade or bench Kenny Thomas.
     
    #9 NIKEstrad, Jul 16, 2000
  10. BobFinn*

    BobFinn* Member

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    It was under "steals" Nike [​IMG]

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    #10 BobFinn*, Jul 16, 2000
  11. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    Nikester

    Actually, steals and opposition turnovers are different. Forcing the opposition to turn the ball over doesn't necessarily mean we got a steal out of it, of course. Bobo's post referred to steals which is why what I said doesn't exactly correlate to what's shown in *'s list.

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    #11 Dr of Dunk, Jul 16, 2000
  12. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Member

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    Dunkster
    They have a stat for Forced Turnovers?

    There are some Unforced Turnovers, Such as throwing the ball over your teammates head into the first row.

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    The more lefties on your team, the better.
    Collier is Seven Foot and Left Handed. How can you go wrong?
    Trade or bench Kenny Thomas.
     
    #12 NIKEstrad, Jul 16, 2000
  13. desihooper

    desihooper Member
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    I think there are better indicators of how good a defensive club you are. I remember back in the day when the Rocks were winning, Rudy would always say how good our defensive field goal percentage was (read how bad the other team shot) He also made a big deal about having guards that rebound well (drexler and anderson) so I think the better defensive rebounding team you have, the better off you'll be. The Rocks were always near the bottom in offensive rebounding (even with OT) so that can't be it. It's all about limiting the other team to one shot, and so that way that can't get easy points off of easy put backs, which in turns increases your opponents ppg and your opponents field goal percentage.... peace

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    #13 desihooper, Jul 16, 2000
  14. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    NikeNackPattyWhack,

    I didn't mean "forced" literally. I meant any turnover, whether it be by steal or by the opposition throwing the ball out of bounds, etc.

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    Just shut up and post

    [This message has been edited by Dr of Dunk (edited July 16, 2000).]
     
    #14 Dr of Dunk, Jul 16, 2000
  15. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    These numbers may be off, so someone correct me...

    You may have a good point about teams that get a lot of good defensive rebounds being good teams as a result. Of course, it's not always true, but of the top 11 defensive rebounding teams last year, 8 made it to the playoffs. The 3 that didn't were the Rockets, Nuggets, and Hawks. Houston was actually a really good rebounding team last year. One of the big exceptions to the "good defensive rebounding teams win games" theory may be the Jazz who were among the worst.

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    #15 Dr of Dunk, Jul 16, 2000
  16. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Member

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    We were among the top rebounding teams? And we didn't have a single person over 7? Incredible! [​IMG]

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    The more lefties on your team, the better.
    Collier is Seven Foot and Left Handed. How can you go wrong?
    Trade or bench Kenny Thomas.
     
    #16 NIKEstrad, Jul 16, 2000
  17. BobFinn*

    BobFinn* Member

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    You know whats really sad about the Rockets rebounding?

    Dream 6.1 rpg
    KT 6.1 rpg
    Cato 6.0 rpg
    and then the freakin point guard!!!!
    Francis 5.3 rpg

    When your PG is the 4th leading rebounder on the team, you know you have problems.

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    "Get up, stand up. Stand up for your right"-Bob Marley

    [This message has been edited by BobFinn* (edited July 16, 2000).]
     
    #17 BobFinn*, Jul 16, 2000
  18. BobFinn*

    BobFinn* Member

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    Here it is:


    Team Rebounds (per game avg)
    1 L.A. Lakers 47.0
    2 Golden State 45.5
    3 Atlanta 45.3
    4 Sacramento 45.0
    5 Orlando 44.9
    6 Denver 44.6
    7 Philadelphia 44.0
    8 San Antonio 43.8
    9 Houston 43.8
    10 Phoenix 43.6
    11 Toronto 43.2
    12 Miami 43.1
    13 Portland 43.0
    14 Boston 43.0
    15 Seattle 42.9
    16 Charlotte 42.9
    17 Cleveland 42.7
    18 Washington 42.7
    19 Minnesota 42.5
    20 Indiana 42.1
    21 Milwaukee 41.3
    22 Dallas 41.1
    23 Detroit 41.1
    24 Utah 41.0
    25 Chicago 40.9
    26 New Jersey 40.9
    27 L.A. Clippers 40.6
    28 New York 40.5
    29 Vancouver 40.5


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    "Get up, stand up. Stand up for your right"-Bob Marley

    [This message has been edited by BobFinn* (edited July 16, 2000).]
     
    #18 BobFinn*, Jul 16, 2000
  19. SmeggySmeg

    SmeggySmeg Member

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    As the Defensive Master, I thought I'd throw in my 2cents worth,

    Creating lots of Steals and Turnovers is a double edged sword.

    The more you try to create steals and forced turnover, by getting up on your player and up in the passing lanes the more easy shots, lay-ups and dunks inparticular open up from dribble penetration and back-cuts off the ball. So Boston may well get alot of steals but i bet they also give up alot of easy baskets because their player are overcommitting to the lanes and on their player.

    Smeg of Defense

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    Stuff BBS, the Rockets and you guys

    It's all Clippers these days, come join the bandwagon and visit

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    #19 SmeggySmeg, Jul 16, 2000
  20. Hottoddie

    Hottoddie Member

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    Hey BobFinn*,

    It could mean we have a very special PG. [​IMG]

    After all, we finished less than 4 rebounds per game behind the world chumps.... uh, I mean champs with what amounted to a virtually new team. Not bad, huh?

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    [This message has been edited by Hottoddie (edited July 17, 2000).]
     
    #20 Hottoddie, Jul 17, 2000
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