I know we've done this in more than one threads. I don't want to resurrect them. We have a few preseason games under our belt and let's come back and reexamine this. Now, it is clear that Bonzi is not going to start, at least not at the beginning. He might not even be with the team when the season starts. So we are back to square one: Is Battier going to start at 4 with some guy like Snyder starting at 2? OR Will T-Mac start at 2 and have Hayes, Howard, or Novak starting at 4? Guards Starters Alston looks like the sure starter at PG. His shooting has improved in these preseason games. That's encouraging. Hope that's not a fluke. The SG position is a lot more unclear. Before the preseason started, we had no idea what the bunch of new guards (Head, Snyder, Spanoulis, Lucas, Jacobsen) could do. Now we have a little clearer picture. Jacobsen will likely be gone. Lucas is 3rd-string at best. Spanoulis is promising but probably won't start. (BTW, it is clear now that Span is a 1, not a 2, even though he might be able to play some at 2.) That leaves Snyder and Head. Head played well in the games. But JVG said that he didn't do well in practice. We know that JVG takes practice performance very seriously. So it can be safe to say that Head won't be our starting 2, at least for now. Snyder looks better than I expected. Is he starter material? Probably. Is he ready? Hard to say. He is good on defense. He seems to be able to pass well. If he can knock down shots at the other end, he might be good enough to be in the starting lineup. The SG picture, as mentioned above, is clouded by the PF situation. If Battier starts at 4, then Snyder will most likely be the guy at 2. If JVG decides to have someone else at the 4, then Battier and TMac move down. As of now, I think JVG still has doubt whether Hayes can be an everyday guy. And unless Novak continues to surprise us with jaw dropping performance, he won't be a starter soon. So would you start Howard or Snyder? At this point, I think Snyder is the more logical choice. Bench Lucas is disappointing. He's not in the picture now. Head has shown improvement and JVG is looking closely whether he can handle the PG duty. But Spanoulis has exceeded many people's expectation. I think he has won the backup PG spot over Luther Head. The SG position is more crowded. When Bonzi is ready, he will be the first to come off the bench. Maybe he will be the starter eventually. Head will be the 3rd-stringer for now. But if he continues to improve, that may change. Ironically, Head might get less time this year even though he is better than last year. That just shows how much we have beefed up the depth. The signing of Bonzi and the good performances of Snyder, Head, and Spanoulis really make this a deep backcourt. . . . to be continued when I have more time
I agree with your guard analysis. Head is too much of a burden to start at SG because there are 2s that are as atheltic as him and having a height advantage over him. Head can put up 15+ points per night but he is going to give up 20 at the same game. You just can't teach height. btw whats all the fuss about Snyder's offensive moves? Travelling?
PG: Rafer Alston is the clear choice to start as his passing is still crisp and he has improved on his shooting. Since his arrival he has been one of the teams better guys at getting Yao the ball. Luther Head will be the primary back-up off the bench due to his quickness and ability to hit open jumpers. Vassillis Spanoulis will get limited spot minutes for defense (ala Ryan Bowen) and clean-up minutes; because while he is very skilled, our point needs to be able to hit the open jumpers that the stars create, and he still plays somewhat out of control. For now, I see him as the third option while he learns the system and gels with the team in practice and limited game time. John Lucas III should make the team, but he wil be the fourth-string PG on injured reserve. SG: I expect Kirk Snyder to start based on what I have seen from him in the preseason games. He is athletic enough to run with Mcgrady and Rafer on the break, but can definately hit the open jumpers that Yao Ming will provide when the defense collapses (shooting 50% in preseason thus far... same percentage as Novak). Bonzi Wells will be the first man off the bench, and the primary scorer for the second unit. His ability to create his own offense will be vital when the starters come out. Snyder was phenomenal with the starters in preseason, but struggled with the second unit. I expect that Bonzi will be great posting up second-string twos. Our back-up point guards are combo guards, so Head and Spanoulis will get spot minutes here, Head when we want to go small, and Spanoulis for defensive purposes. SF: Most of the Small Forward minutes will be dominated by Tracy McGrady. When he does get a breather, one of the guys who can play multiple positions will slide into the three spot (Battier, Snyder, Wells, Novak). PF: Shane Battier will start at the Power Forward position due to his shooting and defense. He is the ultimate hustling role-player and will be the glue of the starting line-up. His primary back-up will be Juwan Howard, with Steve Novak coming in for spot minutes due to his ability to shoot the long ball. Hayes may see some spot time here too for rebounding. I expect Scott Padgett to make the team and be our Power Forward on injured reserve. C: Most of the minutes here will belong to Yao Ming. When he is out I expect Chuck Hayes to actually be the first Center off of the bench, and the Rockets will try to push the tempo when Yao is taking a breather. I expect Dikembe Mutumbo to have spot minutes at the Center position depending on matchups, when we need size and defense
He doesnt have to guard Redd or superstars every night. He will be fine guarding 2's especially back-ups. His wingspan is almost 6'6" so he can steal and contest shots against taller players.
I completely agree, other than yao and J-ho we are a team built to run and push the ball. we need to be able to transform.
Starting Lineup: Rafer = 30 mpg Snyder = 30 mpg T-mac = 36 mpg Battier = 36 mpg Yao = 35 mpg Snyder has been very impressive so far this preseason. His defense has been very solid and at times, spectacular. The only downside I'm seeing so far is that he's seems a bit slow at getting off of screens. But he hasn't really been challenged by a great off the ball player or pick and roll handler, and he hasn't really been hurt on those plays yet, so perhaps he's just picking his spots. Kirk's offense has been decent. I'm not wild about the way he holds the ball and slows down the offense at times, but he has shown the ability swing it around and deliver it into the post. And while his catch and release is extremely slow, he's shown accuracy whenever he's been able to get his feet set. And he can run the floor and power his way into the paint, so he's got some offensive game. Elsewhere the writing on the wall points to Battier starting at PF. Juwan's been MIA this preseason except at the backup 5 spot, and Battier seems to have the upper hand on Hayes as well due to his shooting ability at the 4. Rafer will start at PG, but he'll have to keep his shooting percentages up in order to fend off Luther and V-span. His shot has been much tighter so far this preseason (quicker release, less arm, more legs, and much smoother overall), but it's hard to say if it will hold up. When guys get fatigued, they tend to fall back on bad habits, and Rafer needs to stay focused in order to keep up his form. (Even a proven shooter like David Wesley had to tinker with his form in order to keep his percentages up) Tracy and Yao are obvious, but regarding minutes I'd like them both be in the 35-36 mpg mark, instead of the 38-40 mpg that T-mac has been at in the past, and the <35 that Yao has done before. Bench rotation: Bonzi = 28 mpg Luther/VSpan = 18 mpg Hayes/Novak = 16 mpg Howard/Deke = 11 mpg Bonzi will probably be the first man off the bench for us, and he'll sub in when Yao gets his first breather. Luther and Vspan will battle for the lion's share of backup PG/combo guard minutes. I suspect that Luther will get them initially, but Billy will get spot minutes every once in a while to give him a chance to work up the rotation ladder. Where they go from there completely depends on their play, and possibly Rafer's performance. Hayes and Novak will battle for the backup PF minutes. I'm guessing that Hayes will get the call at the beginning of the season, but it will get increasingly hard to keep a shooter like Novak off the court, so I wouldn't be surprised if he starts taking over the backup PF spot while Hayes moves down to fighting for the backup C slot. Howard and Deke will split the leftover backup C minutes and play depending on matchups. Howard should start off as the primary backup center while Deke will play against big 5's. Then like I said, Hayes might drop down and battle for PT from here as well. As for the end of games, I think we'll end up seeing one of the following lineups: Luther/V-span Snyder Tracy Battier Yao or Snyder Bonzi Tracy Battier Yao Tracy will be the primary ball-handler/offensive option. Both of these groups call for Snyder to keep up the defensive presence that he's maintained so far, but if he does click like he's capable of, then either of these lineups would be a killer defensive gang. The first group has a more traditional set of one-on-one defenders, while the second one would be an amoeba-like switching and rotating entity. Obviously all of these distributions are based on everybody being healthy, but the fact that we need to sit some legit talent means that we should be better prepared this year if someone goes down. Even if it's Mcgrady,Bonzi being our main T-mac insurance, and possibly even Yao, if the athletes and shooters gel into a decent run and gun unit. I'm pretty excited about this group. I know I've pretty much said the same thing the past couple of years, but I'm satisfied with my rose colored glasses and will only take them off if things turn to s***. Until then, the sky's the limit for this team.
Forwards Starters Two of our best players, McGrady and Battier, are natural SF. They either play 2-3 or 3-4. As mentioned above, I think the 3-4 scenario is more likely. So we assume that we have our starting forwards set. Bench I want Battier to play all the backup SF minutes when TMac is not there. So Battier will spend about 1/3 of his time (about 12 mpg) playing SF. For some limited time, Bonzi or Novak may play some at the 3 spot. If Battier is indeed the primary backup SF, he will play about half (24 mpg) of the PF time. The other half will be split among Hayes, Novak, Howard, and Padgett. I doubt that Padgett will play much when there is no injury. Who will get how much time depends on situation. Novak provides shooting. Hayes brings rebounding and defense. Howard is good at midrange and have the best size. When Bonzi is on the floor, you want a long-range shooting PF (Battier, Novak, Padgett) to space out for Bonzi's midrange and post up game. When playing against the Duncans and the Brands, you probably want Hayes in there. My hunch is that Howard's role as PF will get smaller and smaller, unless Battier is hurt. He will mostly be used as 3rd-string C. Center Starters No question here. Bench It all depends on how Mutombo holds up. He is the backup C now. How much can he play and how effective will he be? Since Haryazs is cut, JVG is committed to use Howard and Hayes at the 5 in case Mutombo has nothing left. Howard will probably split the time with Mutombo there depending on whether we need offense or defense. The Depth Chart Alston/Spanoulis/Head Snyder/Wells/Head McGrady/Battier/Wells Battier/Novak/Hayes Yao/Mutombo/Howard The core rotation will be 10 guys (in order of PT; all other players have spot minutes): Battier (38), McGrady (36), Yao (36), Alston (30), Wells (30), Snyder (18), Spanoulis (18), Novak (15), Hayes (10), Mutombo (8) Some Alternative Lineups (As I said elsewhere, there is no "second unit" per se.) When Yao sits: Mutombo, Battier/Novak, McGrady, Wells, Alston Howard, Hayes, McGrady, Head, Spanoulis (the fast team) When McGrady sits: Yao, Novak, Battier, Wells, Alston Yao, Hayes, Battier, Snyder, Alston/Spanoulis When Battier sits: Yao, Novak, McGrady, Wells, Alston The PnR unit (you want your best shooters around Yao and TMac): Yao, Novak, Battier, McGrady, Head The defensive unit: Yao/Mutombo, Hayes, Battier, Snyder, Spanoulis The crunch time unit when you don't want mistakes (ahead): Yao, Battier, McGrady, Wells, Alston The crunch time unit when you want to attack (behind): Yao, Novak, Battier, McGrady, Spanoulis The lineup when you have to score in the last possession: Yao, Novak, Battier, Wells, McGrady
STARTERS Point Guard Rafer Alston - The purest point guard on the team, that has seemed to improve his shooting. With all the talent that surrounds him, he can be top 5 in the league in assist. Shooting Guard Kirk Snyder - Has showned in the games without Yao that he's a great scorer, In the games with Yao, he has showned he's a great scorer and does a great job getting the job into Yao where he can score easily. Also, With the ability to run this season, Kirk Snyder is perfect for the job. Small Forward Tracy McGrady - We all know what this guy can do when healthy. 2-Time Scoring Champ, 6-Time All-Star, 30 ppg in Play-Offs. Do I need to go on? Power Forward Shane Battier - We know how good of a defensive player he is. The NBA is getting more and more dominated by smaller and quicker Power Forwards, There not just bigger bangers anymore. Shane Battier can spread the defense with his great shooting ability, and he is proven to do whatever it takes to get the job done. Do I need to mention how good he defended Dirk Nowitzki in the World Champs? Center Yao Ming - We all saw how he finished the season last year, carring the team. With all the shooter surrounding him, he will get less defensive pressure and will easily score over single defenders. If they throw a double-team at him, he'll pass the ball out, and we'll swing it to a the open man, who will more than likely be a three-point shooter.
Easy, your depth chart for opening the season looks pretty good, except Luther will be the backup PG over V-Span. At C, I'm not sure who the primary backup is yet. Right now, Bonzi and Chuck Hayes need more playing time in real games. I'm concerned about Hayes' fouling and am very disappointed in him so far. Hopefully he can work out the kinks before the season starts. If not, he'll be a scrub this year too.
Head and Spanoulis are fighting for that backup PG spot. If you base your judgment on the first 2 preseason games, Head clearly has the edge. However, Billy has improved since the 3rd game. And JVG has said on record that Head didn't do well in practice. My gut feeling is that JVG likes Billy's style more than Luther's. You may be right that when the season starts, Luther may be the 2nd PG. But I am pretty sure Billy will take that place eventually. I think Luther Head's best chance to shine is to beat out Snyder for that SG spot and hope that Bonzi won't come back next year. Don't get me wrong. I like Luther. He's just got stuck in a situation. And who knows, if Rafer can't hit shots in the season, he might even lose his starting job.
i appreciate your analysis, but ur minutes are completely unrealistic. how can snyder get 30 per game? u seriously think howard is only getting 11 min of action?
Why not. Snyder's been our best defender of the preseason. Even better than T-mac, who while has gotten a highlight reel block or two, has also been burned on a couple of occasions. And as for Howard, I'm just going by the feeling that JVG has him in mind for the backup 5. Maybe I'm jumping the gun on that assessment, but it seems like that's where he's getting his looks so far.
IMO, when Bonzi is in playing form, Snyder won't get near 30 mpg. Snyder might be the starter, but I predict his minutes will be less than Bonzi. If Snyder got 30, Bonzi would get less than 20. That's very unlikely. And we haven't talked about TMac getting some of the SG time too.
I'm beginning to doubt whether the Rockets really need Bonzi. He's talented for sure and I don't even worry about the "headcase" factor unless something concrete happens, but from a team play stand point, the Rockets already looked pretty decent with Snyder, Head, and Co at the 2. I never thought he was that critical a need, just a decent piece to add depth and provide injury insurance. But I've always had more faith in Snyder and Head than most. Now, maybe I caught preseason fever, I really would like to see Snyder, Head, and Spanoulis getting more meaningful minutes to develop and having to play Bonzi, a good player but a one year rental, significant minutes won't allow that.
We are in serious trouble if Reefer is getting 30 minutes a game...not going to happen.His J won't ever be consistent enough...and his talent level just isn't there to start for a championship contender. It's just a matter of time before Spanoulis or Head claims his starting spot.And I see Spanoulis being the one.It might take until midseason,but Bill's the real deal.He might not be able to drill that J right now,but he has ooooodles of talent.VSpan is polished to a degree and is a natural PG.Once Bill adjusts to the NBA,he will be the man. Luther,to me should be an important cog.I see him playing the 1 and 2.... a tweener as first thought,but a solid rotation player who will start once in awhile...probably more early on.He can D up on opposing points and stick the 3.The Rockets have so much talent in the backcourt that it would seem there aren't enough minutes to go around....a pleasant problem for a change. I see Rafer being dealt. Snyder and Bonzi give us so much versatility...offensively and defensively. Bonzi on the low block and slamming the boards as the first guy off the bench initially...and Snyder starting giving us a massive defensive presence at the 2....a workhorse with mad athleticism....a JVG man alll the way...how ironic.When Bonzi or Yao is down low,you can bet Novak,Battier,and Luther will be drilling 3's. Novak has to get 20 -30 Hayes will get his 15 -25 minutes/game....any more than that and again we have problems.I still think we need a 4 at the deadline,but we'll see. By the end of the season...... Bonzi - 25 -34 min./game Snyder 20 - 30 Head 25 - 35 Spanoulis 20 - 30 Yao/Deke Hayes 15 -25 Battier Tmac Novak 20 - 25 Howard 15 - 20 Like I said,Rafer gets dealt...and hopefully at deadline,Howard goes too. Padgett probably makes the team as another shooter and body in the post.Scott has good instincts and can still stroke it.
I think your really wrong about Bonzi. He has all the motivation in the world to bring his A game and fits like a glove down low and on isos.Yao,Tracy,Battier,Deke...These are guys that command respect.Wells will fall in line and be HUGE for us.
PG: Rafer Alston for the whole season. Spanoulis will get some minutes but only in blow-outs, I don't expect him to get consistent minutes this season at all. Luther Head will be the back-up, I believe, but I don't think JVG will ever be happy at that. JL3 is the 3rd string. SG: Kirk Snyder will probably be the starter, but I don't think the Rockets are satisfied with that. Bonzi will get back-up minutes and probably will move into the starter spot in late season. Luther Head can back-up here. Another scenario is Mac starting at the SG spot. (with Battier at SF and Hayes at PF) SF: This is Mac obviously. Battier, Padgett, Novak will get minutes here. PF: Battier and Hayes, depending on the matchups. Howard could start sometimes, and Novak will get his minutes. C: Ming with Howard backing him up. Mutombo will get some from time to time.
Yao Ming, Battier, McGrady, and Alston are starters. I think Howard, Hayes, and Snyder are battling to be the fifth starter. Bonzi will also fight for this position when/if he gets back from his excused absense. Novak is an outside shot for the fifth starter spot, but is still fighting just to get into the rotation with Howard and Hayes. Spanoulis, Head, and JLIII are fighting for backup PG minutes. I think Howard is the backup center with Deke playing spot minutes depending on matchups. The lineup I've been wanting to see has already been mentioned by m_cable...Yao, Battier, McGrady, Snyder, Head. This is the lineup I'd like to see at the beginning of the second period. This lineup has speed to cover Yao's weaknesses, shooting, slashing, and a creator in McGrady.
Before the preseason games, I would disagree with you because both Snyder and Spanoulis were unknown commodities. And we didn't know if Head and Alston had made any improvement during the offseason. We need some proven quality in the backcourt, especially scoring quality. That's why Bonzi's signing was so important. Now, I must admit that both Snyder and Spanoulis are more impressive than I expected. And both Head and Alston seem to have improved too. So Bonzi's presence does seem to be less important now. However, I don't think you can keep a talent like Bonzi on the bench too much, unless he really disappears like Derek Anderson did.
I think it is really good to have some one who is talented on the bench to stimulate the starters. They know they have to be REALLY good to keep Bonzi on the bench.
