Spencer Arrighetti will be a really really good pitcher

He's definitely improved a lot. And the team definitely needs him. With LMJ not coming back and Garcia likely facing the same fate at this point, we are going to have to lean heavily on the young guys to get us to the playoffs and advance. He's not likely in the postseason rotation (if he is that means we've been hit again by the injury bug), but absolutely can be the kind of weapon that LMJ/Morton were out of the pen back in 2017.

 

He needs to either cut down on the walks or find a way to avoid barrels, both of which he does very poorly, but has improved on lately.

 

I guess it depends on what your definition of an ace is?

There's quite a few guys who are TOR pitchers but an ace?

Right now I'd say the following are pitchers you could call an ace.

Burnes
Cole
Wheeler
Fried

Guys who have been aces in the past and when they're on are definitely an ace.
Framber
Snell
Glasnow

Up and coming who have ace stuff but not the track record.
Skenes
Skubal
Gallen
Strider

Others who have ace potential.
Webb
Kirby
Gilbert

That word "ace" gets thrown around a lot but in reality there's not too many of them. Excited to see what Brown and Arrighetti blossom into.

 

Not ready to go on the Ace train with him yet.

He does have a unique arm angle and has seemed to find a good release for his Sweeper/fastball which is causing hitter confusion.

Missing bats is crucial in being elite unless you have an absolute disgusting two seam ala Framber.

He is a youngin and I am happy that he is getting the innings to experience the ups and down much like Hunter Brown has.

Hunter Brown for me is a different story and I think he really does have TOR stuff to replace what you were getting from Javier.

 

2 months ago I was thinking he was just as likely to be moved to the bullpen as staying in the rotation.

We all know that a slew of injuries the past year and a half have resulted in lots of different pitchers starting games.

15 different pitchers have started, 13 if you take out Scott as an opener and Henley as an emergency call up -> release.

9 of them have started 10 or more and 8 of those are still in the organization, though Urquidy has likely pitched his last game for the Astros.

And none of those 8 are McCullers or Garcia who (theoretically) should compete for rotation spots next year.

I can see a path for either Verlander or Kikuchi returning, but if neither do the rotation options COULD be:

2025:
Framber
Brown
McCullers
ArrighettI
Blanco
Garcia
France
Dubin
Blubaugh
Gusto

W/ Javier returning between August 2025 and opening day 2026.

If the health luck finally evens out somebody will need to be in the bullpen or AAA. I no longer see that being Arrighetti.

 

Both of them have Ace stuff. Brown has 6 inning Ace stuff and they can work around this.

Arrighetti has improved his control and command. This is very promising. He appears to be able to go deeper into games. These guys futures are very bright.

 

So far it would seem that way.

 

Good post

I wouldn't count on Javier for anything next year. Anything they get from him is gravy

 

Skubal is about to win the CYA and is definitely an ace at this point. He’s been in the league for awhile as well.

Gallen has a pretty significant track record too, definitely doesn’t belong in that group. He’s probably on the fringe though.

McClanahan, while injured, belongs somewhere in the conversation.

Ohtani is definitely an ace.

 

My definition of an Ace is a top 10 starter which is 1/3 of all #1s.

A #1 is top 30

A TOR is top 60.

A MOR is 61-120

and BOR is 121+

Stats I look at are: IP/GS, QS%, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, HR/9, WHIP, FIP, xERA, and %GS w <1R per 2IP

This is off top of my head so other suggestions are welcome.

 

Sweet !! That will be 2 contributions. I'll be a staff writer before you know it. Lol

Seriously though, thanks. It's nice to get some acknowledgement that my ideas aren't crazy or stupid. I am one of the all time great overthinkers.

As for quantifying the levels within the rotation, the other option would be to identify how many pitchers actually start (throw out openers) a set number of games - 5?, 10?, 20? and then determine what %

Ace = top 7%
#1= top 20% ( maybe top 15% due to more bad starters)
TOR = top 40% ( 30%?)
MOR= 41-80% (31-75%?)
BOR = over 80% (76%+?)

 

Yainer Diaz will be a really really good hitter

Where was this post in April?

As far as Spencer goes, you don't necessarily need an ace out of him, you need a a solid starter. I think he and Brown are that, and maybe then some.

 

Most of this season, he's looked great at times. Horrible at other times.

His last two starts have been solid great.

 

I think it’s kind of tough to put parameters on each group, especially when it comes to aces.

For example, if you’ve got 5 clear “aces” with similar stats that you’ve listed (I agree with those), and then after that the 6th best pitcher is much closer to say the 15th best pitcher than he is the “aces”, I wouldn’t consider the 6th best pitcher an ace just because he’s inside your parameters.

 

Have high hopes for him, reminds me a lot of Lance. The thing about Lance is he always pitched better than his ERA suggested because of a couple of stinkers, feel like with a guy like Arrighetti you might be getting the same thing.

 

I get what you are saying and it makes sense.

Once they are rated and ranked based on the determined criteria should they be categorized based on % of pitchers above and below them, or by % of the best possible stats?

Good debatable point.

 

last 8 starts, 47 IP: 36H, 15BB, 64K, 7HR, .208 .279 .382 .660 OPS against, 3.64 ERA