Something big is about to go down

I have a contact who lives right next to a base where B-52s are stationed, and he says they're all gone. We're sending an unspecified number of F-15s and F-16s to the "Persian Gulf". My father works for Tesoro, and they supply the NAS (Naval Air Station) in San Diego, and they told him to stop sending gas through the pipeline because no one was there - everyone has left. Same source (my father at Tesoro), the AF and Navy are buying s*itpools of jet fuel - more than in 1990-1. The Theodore Roosevelt set sail for the Med today with *unspecified orders* (which means combat). Reports of Ticos and Arleigh Burkes setting sail for unknown destinations have been coming in all day. We already have two carrier groups in theater. The 82nd Airborne is on standby, and the 101st Air Assault is gearing up. The 75th Rangers is on standby.



The B-52s are going to Diego Garcia, my best bet. The "Persian Gulf" (destination for the F-15/16s) means Kuwait/Saudi. We're throwing practically the whole Fleet out there, and there's no telling where they'll end up. The 82nd can be put anywhere, and the 101st can be put anywhere the 75th Rangers can (which is anywhere).

Something big is about to go down. My guess is Iraq and Afghanistan... Duh.

 

The Bataan's an amphib, right? Hmmm...

Carpet bombing the Afghani mountains would be pointless. Carpet bombing the troops the Taliban's massing on Pakistan's border might not be. Carpet bombing the Iraqi Republican Guard would be just fine...

The B-52s also carry ALCMs - cruise missiles.

 

Mango:

I'd very much like to know what's going on in Incirlik now, but my guess would be that it's the same as everywhere else - everyone's just getting ready. No, no sources there...

I think you're mistaken about the 82nd / 101st being insufficient in Iraq. I know, you're thinking armor, but we've got a full brigade of armor prepositioned in Kuwait, as well as a MPS (marine prepositioned squadron) in Diego with another full brigade on Ro/Ro ships. All you have to do is fly the troops there. That's nearly a full division of armor - more than enough to beat anything the Iraqis can throw at us.

And the 82nd is the best trained infantry division on the planet. It is also better at destroying armor than most armored divisions (except NATO divs) on the planet. I would be very confident with the 82nd, 2 armored brigades, and some elements of the 101st - backed up by massive air power, of course... Iraq is depleted. It could've stopped that force 10 years ago, but as it is they can barely subdue their own insurrections, much less fight a professional force like this.

It's like pitting Steve Francis against two kids you just picked up off the street.

 

Personally, a large part of me hopes they don't give him up (they've already said they won't anyway, so it's moot). But if they did give him up then many Americans wouldn't be in the mood anymore to do what has to be done .

Who here thinks that when bin Laden is dead that terrorism will suddenly stop?

There are 20 or 30 guys out there just like him who will step up and take control of Al Qaeda. Saddam is still there, and he's still giving money (and likely biological weapons) to these guys and telling them to go kill Americans. The Beka'a valley is still a hot spot terrorist resort - pushing out at least a dozen dedicated, well-trained, motivated suicide bombers a day. The Iranians still have three camps that the CIA knows about.

If America settles for bin Laden and nothing else, then we've lost.

 

Smeg:

Vicious circle - yes. Eternal - not necessarily.

Mango:

I've been studying it for years (wrote two papers on it in grad school, which were forwarded to DoD), but I never got around to doing it. Now seems as good a time as any. I did actually talk to a recruiter today, and am going to take the ASVAB tomorrow... OCS path.

I would not be surprised to see the Iraqis use chem/bio weapons against our troops. I wouldn't even be surprised if they had a nuke or two... But we will not respond in kind. We don't need to.

If (when) we topple Saddam, we would do well to think twice about installing a pro-Western regime. Our allies are pro-Western regimes, and they're still popping out suicide bombers like a fat man who just ate a bean pie. I'm not sure there's any way, however, to avoid such hate even if we don't take these people out. The Iraqis hate us with a passion (wonder why?), and that hate is not going to just go away on its own.

If we can depose Saddam (and more importantly, the Ba'ath party), give the Rumallah and Kirkuk oil fields back to the Iraqi people (along with their wealth), and install a UN-supported pro-Islamic regime, I suspect that the vast majority of Iraqis would be very pleased. We'd also have to rebuild their country after we leveled it (lotsa $). But you have to keep in mind that most Iraqis hate Saddam, they just fear him more than they hate him. We will be doing them a huge favor by getting rid of him and his party.

 

I guarantee you that they wanted this to happen. These people are crazy, not stupid. They want a jihad - a war between Islam and the West (Christianity, in particular). Osama knew we would respond. He wants us to put Pakistan, Syria, Saudi, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, and the occupied territories in the hot seat. He wants us all to go on a war footing. He wants WW3.

He just thinks he can actually win it. That's the main problem, and that's why people are going to die.

His plan is to get us to respond with another massive bombing and (hopefully) a ground campaign. He thinks - rightly - that this will inflame the whole Middle East. Arabs and Muslims all over that region will be screaming for American blood, because he believes - rightly, again - that poor, uneducated people can easily be stirred to war. He has just underestimated the opponent.

But if these people are going to be attacking us this way, and almost certainly with real WMD in the future, then how can we afford NOT to fight back? They WANT TO KILL US!!!

There is no easy solution. There will be no treaties ending hostilities, where everyone just goes back to living their lives. But we have no choice, unless we are content to be attacked. We must fight back in every way we can.

 

I know this was for DREAMer, but... The Bataan carries a MEU-SOC (Marine Expeditionary Unit - Special Operations Capable). About 2200 Marines, give or take. Those guys deploy in ARGs (Amphibious Ready Groups) and are tailor-made for this kind of situation. The Bataan also carries a large complement of helicopters, as well as some AV-8B Harriers Strike Fighters. It is basically a composite aircraft carrier.

A MEU-SOC is best used not for an invasion/occupation, but for rescue and raiding situations, which is what we're likely to face in Afghanistan. Other ships (an ARG is usually 3 ships) carry tanks, more marines, support troops/units, material, aircraft (helicopters), landing craft, etc...

Flexibility is the key. Every CVBG (carrier battle group, with its attendant ARG) is able to deal with a multitude of different and disparate situations. All 3-4 carrier groups we're deploying could concievably hit 3 separate targets simultaneously.

You never know.