http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insi...ry?columnist=ford_chad&page=TradeWatch-100129 Trade Buzz: Who's most likely to deal? Email Share By Chad Ford ESPN.com Over the past couple of weeks, we've looked at more than 30 players who could be traded before the Feb. 18 trade deadline. For players like Phoenix Suns forward Amare Stoudemire, the trade talk continues to heat up. For others, like Portland Trail Blazers point guard Andre Miller, the talk has died down; in Miller's case, GM Kevin Pritchard declared recently that the team doesn't want to trade him. Which teams are most likely to make a deal by the trade deadline? We have the latest word. To check out Chad Ford's trade buzz and analysis, become an ESPN Insider today.
Someone with insider, will you PLEASE post this article, thanks Damn, people are so demanding these days, heh
Trade Buzz: Who's most likely to deal? By Chad Ford ESPN.com Over the past couple of weeks, we've looked at more than 30 players who could be traded before the Feb. 18 trade deadline. For players like Phoenix Suns forward Amare Stoudemire, the trade talk continues to heat up. For others, like Portland Trail Blazers point guard Andre Miller, the talk has died down; in Miller's case, GM Kevin Pritchard declared recently that the team doesn't want to trade him. Some teams are looking for the missing piece. Others are throwing in the towel and looking to rebuild. And for a few others, the trade deadline is an opportunity to save some serious cash. Here's a look at the 10 teams most likely to deal: The contenders One piece away from a championship? Cleveland Cavaliers The Cavs are sporting the best record in the league and have swept the Western Conference favorites, the Lakers, 2-0. But after last year's playoff collapse, you can be sure GM Danny Ferry will take every precaution. And Cleveland has another big reason to make a deal: LeBron James can be a free agent this summer, and the Cavs want to do everything in their power to persuade him to stay long term. The Cavs have some good assets, including Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Shaquille O'Neal, whose contracts are expiring, and the semi-retired Wally Szczerbiak, a sign-and-trade candidate. They also have a young player, J.J. Hickson, in whom some teams have shown interest. Plus, the Cavs would be willing to give up this year's first-round pick. But those assets are of value primarily to teams trying to clear cap room. Hickson and a late first-round pick alone won't net a star. As trade targets, the Cavs have been concentrating mostly on 4s who can spread the floor. The Wizards' Antawn Jamison and the Pacers' Troy Murphy are reportedly at the top of their list. While both the Wizards and Pacers have some financial reasons to make a deal with Cleveland, both teams are seeing whether they can get something more from another team. Los Angeles Lakers The Lakers, like the Cavs, are perched atop their conference at the moment, and they are favored to win a second straight NBA title. So why would they mess with a good thing? There is a growing fear in L.A. that the point guard position has become a real problem. Starter Derek Fisher looks as though he's run out of gas, and reserve Jordan Farmar, while decent, is hardly world-class. If the Lakers can acquire even an average point guard, they may have to do it. They, too, have assets for a team that needs to save money. Both Fisher and Adam Morrison come off the books this summer, for a total of more than $10 million in expiring contracts. The three big names mentioned in connection to Los Angeles have been Devin Harris, Andre Miller and Kirk Hinrich. The Nets want more than expiring contracts for Harris, so I think they're out. The Blazers aren't eager to move Miller, especially down the coast to a Western Conference rival. That leaves the Bulls, who want to get further under the salary cap to make a run at two free agents this summer. Hinrich has been solid in a backup role for the Bulls, but he's expendable. While the Lakers would have to commit to the remainder of Hinrich's contract, it's a deal that makes a lot of sense for both sides. Orlando Magic The Magic were a preseason pick of many, including me, to make it to the Eastern Conference finals and perhaps beyond. Vince Carter was supposed to be an upgrade over Hedo Turkoglu. The addition of Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson was supposed to give them depth inside. And a healthy Jameer Nelson was going to put them over the top. It hasn't happened yet. The Magic have been shaky, playing roughly .500 ball for the past couple of months. Several GMs have told ESPN that the Magic have been aggressive in their efforts to shake up the roster and regain their swagger. They have a number of assets. They could find takers for several of their reserve bigs, including Marcin Gortat and Bass. Rashard Lewis would also garner interest if he were available. And while they would be interested in moving Carter, sources around the league say that the market for VC is lukewarm at best. Dallas Mavericks Mavs owner Mark Cuban has always broken the bank to put a quality team on the floor. This year's Mavs, for instance, have the third-best record in the West and the league's second-highest payroll. So, despite what he's already spending, Cuban will try to add another piece to put them over the top. Jason Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry aren't getting younger. The Mavs need to win now. The team has a number of unusual and intriguing assets. Josh Howard is a valuable player, and his contract isn't guaranteed for next season. Likewise, a team can trade for starting center Erick Dampier and decide whether to pay him in 2010-11. Between Howard and Dampier, any team (Mavs included) could get about $24 million off the books for next season. But the Mavs don't have the kind of young talent or draft picks normally needed to sweeten such trades. Because of the Kidd trade, the Nets own the Mavericks' first-round pick this year. Therefore, given NBA rules, the next first-round pick they can trade is their 2012 pick, which doesn't have much value now. What do the Mavs want? According to the rumblings out there, they are looking for an athletic wing like Philly's Andre Iguodala or the Kings' Kevin Martin. Or they'll save their assets to make a move this summer. Playing the lottery Looking to next season Washington Wizards The Wizards as we knew them appear to be history. Before the season, many of us had them pegged as a potential playoff team. But all of that was on the assumption that the team would have Gilbert Arenas for the season. Now that Arenas has been suspended for the rest of the season and with his future appearing very shaky, the word is that Washington is contemplating a fire sale. The Wizards will explore the market for Arenas, of course, but, with four more seasons remaining on a huge contract, he's going to be very difficult to move. And we've all heard the rampant trade talk about Jamison, Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, whose contract is expiring. Basically no one is safe on the roster at the moment. Right now, it's not clear exactly how the Wizards want to play this. Will they insist on getting talent back for players like Jamison and Butler, or are they willing to settle for immediate cap relief? If the latter, the chances that the Wizards are active between now and Feb. 18 are very, very high. Indiana Pacers The Pacers thought that if everyone stayed healthy this season, they might have a shot at the playoffs. But the team has been a disappointment. While injuries have played a major part in their struggles, there are other problems. T.J. Ford has been awful, second-year guard Brandon Rush has struggled, and Mike Dunleavy has been slow to return to form. With so many teams interested in both Murphy and big man Jeff Foster, it looks as though the Pacers are primed to make a move that could set them back in the short term and help in the long term. The question is, what do Pacers execs Larry Bird and David Morway want in return? If they want cap space, there are plenty of willing suitors. If they want more -- and that would be understandable given their dearth of talent -- it may be harder to find the perfect combination. Whatever they choose, the Pacers' best play appears to be forgetting about this season and looking to the future, even if it means more losses now. The draft might be their quickest route to getting an elite talent, such as John Wall or another high lottery pick, to play alongside Danny Granger. Detroit Pistons After Detroit's disappointing 2008-09 season, Pistons GM Joe Dumars knew that the days of his team making the Eastern Conference finals every year were over. But he didn't expect this. The Pistons, fresh off spending a boatload of money this summer on Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, have been awful. Injuries have played a significant role, but the Pistons' pain goes deeper. Detroit, known for its gritty defense for most of the past three decades, has become a team interested more in outscoring teams than in stopping them. The talent is also unbalanced, with a loaded backcourt and a desperate need for big men who can guard elite bigs and command a double-team in the post. Moving Richard Hamilton would be ideal, but there's probably no way the Pistons can trade his contract right now, especially with Hamilton still trying to get back to full strength. So Tayshaun Prince has become the primary bait. But I'm willing to bet everyone but Rodney Stuckey is available -- and even Stuckey might be had at the right price. Dumars will be patient as his team returns to health, but ultimately he wants to get the team back into championship contention. His current roster appears to have a ceiling no higher than fifth-best in the East. So I think Dumars will do what it takes to put a stop to the slide. The tax man cometh A penny saved is more than a penny earned Utah Jazz Jazz GM Kevin O'Connor continues to insist that the Jazz are interested in making only basketball moves, not cap-related moves. Still, the Jazz could save millions of dollars by moving Carlos Boozer (or another highly paid player) and getting under the luxury-tax line. While the Jazz have made cost-saving moves in the past, O'Connor seems to have more swagger this year. But will things change as we get closer to the trade deadline? Knowing O'Connor, I doubt it. Ultimately, though, that might be ownership's decision. Philadelphia 76ers It sounds as if the Sixers are very motivated to make a deal that gives them salary relief right now. They've been dangling Iguodala, once the cornerstone of the franchise, to any team willing to take Samuel Dalembert, too. Cleveland, Dallas and Houston have been mentioned as possible suitors. While Iguodala might be a little overpaid (and Dalembert is way overpaid), both players could help a team. Given that, I have to believe Philadelphia is going to find a way to make this happen. Golden State Warriors The Warriors have been stiff-arming all trade rumors and declaring that they like the young guys they have and just want to be patient and let them develop together. At the same time, general manager Larry Riley recently said, "We're in a situation where we need to look very strongly at change." And the winds might be shifting for another reason: If owner Chris Cohan is interested in selling the team, as reports have suggested, then a salary dump becomes more likely. That may be why Monta Ellis and Corey Maggette, despite having strong seasons, are appearing more and more in trade talk. And if names like Anthony Randolph and Stephen Curry start coming up in trade discussions, you'll know that the Warriors are contemplating big changes.
I posted this in the Random Trade Idea thread..... Step 1: Acquire Marcin Gortat in a separate trade with Orlando They want to move him and only kept him because they didn't want to see him walk for nothing. They have no minutes for him and the divorce is obviously depending. I am of the opinion that he's a starter in this league. Morey's prior interest in the guy speaks for itself: he's young, he's huge, he's athletic, he has upside, he can play both frontcourt positions, he blocks shots and he can get his own offense. Why Orlando has been reluctant to feature this guy is beyond me. I guess it doesn't help that Dwight is one of the league's most durable players and that SVG loves overloading the floor with shooters. In any event, $5-7M for a starting center in this league is an absolute STEAL. He could start now, backup Yao when he returns (Yao, even at his best, was only a 34 MPG type of player), he could also get minutes at the four (not a bad perk given our uncertainty with Scola's future) and finally.....Yao insurance. We would be fools to not have a starting caliber backup waiting in the wings given Yao's durability issues. Another option would be offering to take Brandon Bass's contract off of their hands. Bass is another player that's VERY talented that SVG's system simply doesn't have the need for. SVG would rather have a Channing Frye type player than a Carl Landy type. Sad but true. In any event, Orlando regrets signing him and he's locked in for three more years @ $4M per season -- not bad. Offering to take a Gortat/Bass combo off their their hands would likely lessen Orlando's trade demands in any deal for Gortat -- which really wouldn't be the end of the world as I will explain in Step 2. Step 2: Use McGrady's expiring contract + Scola or Landry + picks or whatever sweeteners to land us a superstar via trade From this point on it's really up to Les and Morey as to who they will go after and how much salary they can take on in return. In theory, now that we've upgraded our frontcourt the onus is now on us to address our other major glaring need: that of a scoring wing that can create. Basically, a different version of what McGrady is supposed to bring to the table. McGrady's ginormous expiring contract + Landry or Scola is enough to land us a superstar. Of course, the catch is we're also talking about roughly $26M in salary right there needing to be matched. It can be done but it won't be easy. The point is we would now have the flexibility to add Scola or Landry into trade discussions with the idea of having Gortat and maybe Bass to fall back on in the event that we're forced to part with either. Scenario #1: McGrady/Scola for Butler/Haywood/Mike James Butler would obviously be the key piece here. Haywood and Gortat could split minutes at center for the remainder of the season thus giving us a ton of size and presence around the basket that we otherwise don't have with Hayes/Andersen manning the five. Haywood and MJ are expirings -- we could keep or S&T Haywood this summer. If nothing else, we could try the Butler experiment and if it doesn't work out then guess what? We have a valuable $10M expiring contract to play around with at next year's trade deadline. I know that Butler has his flaws and isn't really a SG but I like this trade because it limits the amount of long-term salary that we would be required to take on in any trade of this magnitude. Scenario #2: McGrady/Scola for Kevin Martin/Kenny Thomas/Hilton Armstrong Not wild about this idea given that Martin has played like a bag off ass lately, but it's VERY unlikely that we could get a player like him for just McGrady alone without giving up any assets. We'll have to give up an asset and given Scola's age and pending free agency status he might have to be the guy that takes the fall. Thomas and Armstrong are both expirings. Scenario #3: Push for some sort of McGrady/picks/sweenters type of package for Iguodala/Kapono This is probably the most likely and plausible trade of them all. Iguodala + Kapono gets any form of a McGrady trade done. The question then just becomes: what else? Iguodala is supposedly very unhappy with his role in Philly's offense as of late, we all know they have nothing to play for this year and it makes sense why Philly wants to move him. Very good player -- he's just paid too much to be part of the engine and not the machine. It works out for us that things are seemingly moving downhill fast there in Philly. In conclusion, I suggested these three trades because they land us an elite wing all the while reducing the amount of long-term salary that we would be required to take on. I did this to offset Gortat's $5-7 plus possibly Bass' $4M per year that would have to be factored into our long-term cap situation. Finally, regardless of how this season finishes out none of these trades would involve us giving up our first-rounder this year. Sounds like the best of both worlds to me.
Gortat won't come to houston. He wanted to leave Orlando because he wanted to make his own way. Why would he want to come here and play behind Yao when that's exactly why he wants to leave Orlando. Just don't see him actually wanting to come to play here. And realistically, I don't think there's anyway we're getting Iggy without picking up Brand or Sammy D in the trade. Iggy is the bait to move either of those two. He's not going to be traded by himself as the main piece. Philly would be dumb to do so.
Good ideas, but where did you hear anything about the Magic wanting to trade Gortat? Everything I've read has said that they have 100% zero interest in letting him go. Do you think it's likely he is traded? What would we trade for him?
In this same article Chad Ford mentioned how Orlando could look to find takers for both Bass and Gortat, plus it makes sense when you think about it. The only reason Orlando matched Gortat's contract offer was because they didn't want to lose him for nothing. As for Bass, that was just a swing-and-miss on their part. Bass is a good player and I always wondered how good Dwight could be if he played next to a real PF, but evidently SVG prefers shooting and spacing over having another big capable of crashing the glass and playing weakside. It's like how I joked in the post above: SVG would rather have a Channing Frye type player than a Landry or Paul Millsap type. I guess we'll just have to see which road Otis Smith elects to go down. All I know is when there's smoke there's usually fire -- the smoke in this case being Gortat/Bass unhappy with their extremely limited roles/minutes coupled with their lengthy contracts -- looking to move them would make sense but I understand their value on the depth chart. Clearly, you could look to exchange them for cheaper players and not suffer any depth loss but that's up to Smith on how much he REALLY likes Gortat/Bass. Orlando is way over the LT threshold and a deal like Hayes/Andersen/Cook + sweetners for Gortat/Bass could get them out of both long-term contracts and save them approximately $2M for LT purposes. I would do that deal without hesitating. I've mentioned before that I feel Gortat is a starter in this league and how his $5-7M per year is actually below market value for a starting center in this league. As for Bass, everybody knows he's a talented and valuable bench player that produces when he's given minutes. His three additional years at $4M per season makes his contract very manageable. As for those three trades I proposed, even though I don't particularly care for Butler as a player I would be most inclined to push for that Butler/Haywood/Mike James package. We get our asset (Butler), we get our expirings to limit long-term salary added (Haywood, MJ) and in the process we've upgraded our frontcourt (Gortat, Bass). The best part about Butler is not only his ability to score from the wing (arguably our greatest weakness at the moment), but he only has one year left on his contract after this season. Hypothetically, our rotation would look something like: PG Brooks/Lowry/James SG Ariza/Budinger/JT SF Butler/Battier PF Landry/Bass C Gortat/Haywood/Dorsey You could obviously do some mixing-and-matching there but this would be the general idea. With any luck, Orlando could just buyout the Chuckwagon and we could resign him. In any event, I think this two-part trade makes us better on both ends of the floor all the while limiting the amount of huge, lengthy long-term deals that we would be required to take on in all these hypothetical: Trade McGrady + whatever for Player A along with a hideous contract or two . Chances are that asset will already have a sizable long-term contract and that's in addition to whatever else we would have to absorb as part of the deal. But again, just an idea.
This deal doesn't really make any sense. Part of the reason Gortat didn't sign with the Rockets this offseason is that they didn't think he was worth full MLE type money. Why would they turn around and overpay for him just a few months later?
We were ready to offer something like 3/4th's of the MLE to get it done. We're not talking about that much of a price increase here (for a starting NBA center, no less). In any event, we're lucky that things worked out the way we did since we were able to utilize the disabled player exception and sign all our rookies the way we did. That was then, this is now.
I thought about whether or not it would be kosher to post the entire article but I figured ESPN "Insider" being the joke that it is plus the whole Chad Ford factor made whatever it was fair game. Sorry if I ticked anybody off and it won't happen again.
