Some Rockets relevant analysis from Basketballprospectus

Lowry out plays Brooks on a per minute basis?

DD faints

 

He plays a lot of those minutes against backups...with better offensive players......don't fall for articles that fail to factor in the other 9 players on the floor.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

DD

 

Using that argument, isn't Lowry playing against backups, with backups?

 

Lies, damn lies, and **** that get between DD and Aaron Brooks's penis.

 

the truth is Lowry did not outplay Brooks on per minute basis.

 

In regards to Brad Miller, I peeked at some stats from last season and found that his production when playing between 30 and 40 minutes (16 game sample), was right at 14 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists on 46.3% shooting. Quite impressive for a 34 year old.

His efficiency rating for those games was a healthy 17.2, which is significantly higher than when he plays less minutes. While I hate to even consider the possibility, that could bode well if Yao misses time again.

 

according to synergy, this is how our rockets stacked up last year

*ppp is points per possession, first offensive number is overall ppp, second is offense within offensive sets, no free throws. the last number is rank.


POINTS
-Aaron Brooks
OPPP: 1.15/0.94/183
DPPP: 0.96/338
-Kyle Lowry
OPPP: 1.06/0.88/298
DPPP: 0.91/230
WINGS
-Kevin Martin
OPPP: 1.18/1.02/53
DPPP: 0.86/95
-Trevor Ariza
OPPP: 1.08/0.85/341
DPPP: 0.91/230
-Andre Iguodala (just for comparison)
OPPP: 1.07/0.91/240
DPPP: 0.90/203
-Shane Battier
OPPP: 1.31/0.96/141
DPPP: 0.89/169
-Chase Budinger
OPPP: 1.25/1.01/64
DPPP: 0.97/352
-Jermaine Taylor
OPPP: 0.92/0.81/381
DPPP: 0.92/259
BIGS
-Yao Ming
N/a
-Luis Scola
OPPP: 0.99/0.97/124
DPPP: 0.96/338
-Brad Miller
OPPP: 0.88/0.91/240
DPPP: 0.88/146
-Chuck Hayes
OPPP: 0.83/0.83/364
DPPP: 0.89/169
-Jordan Hill
OPPP: 0.96/0.97/124
DPPP: 0.99/379

 

Brooks shot the ball better, which is expected given that he's a better shooter. But Lowry was the better passer, rebounder, and defender, and got to the FT line at a really impressive rate. He DID outperform Brooks in terms of WS/48min (0.148 vs. .091).

Though I don't think you can definitively say that Lowry outperformed Brooks on a per minute basis, it doesn't seem like a stretch.

 

Thanks for the info. I'm just going to make it a little more readable:

                                       OFFENSE                   DEFENSE  
POINTS                         PPP      PPP (set)  rnk        PPP      rnk
           Aaron Brooks        1.15     0.94       183        0.96     338
           Kyle Lowry          1.06     0.88       298        0.91     230
WINGS                                                                  
           Kevin Martin        1.18     1.02       53         0.86     95
           Trevor Ariza        1.08     0.85       341        0.91     230
           Andre Iguodala      1.07     0.91       240        0.9      203
           Shane Battier       1.31     0.96       141        0.89     169
           Chase Budinger      1.25     1.01       64         0.97     352
           Jermaine Taylor     0.92     0.81       381        0.92     259
BIGS                                                                   
           Yao Ming                                                    
           Luis Scola          0.99     0.97       124        0.96     338
           Brad Miller         0.88     0.91       240        0.88     146
           Chuck Hayes         0.83     0.83       364        0.89     169
           Jordan Hill         0.96     0.97       124        0.99     379

 

Yeah, thanks VanGundier...it makes the board so much better.

NOT !

Now, back on topic.

You can use statistics to make any argument it is all a matter of how you weight those stats in your own personal viewpoint.

For instance, someone might value PPG more than other categories, or they might value assists, or PER or...heck anything.

It is why stats are nice, but not really all that relevent in making a comparison especially when both players are playing the same position but are being asked to do completly different things.

Lowry is asked to push the ball and be more of a setup man, Brooks is being asked to be the main scoring threat, so while they both occupy a good portion of their time at the spot called....POINT GUARD....they impact games in a completely different manner.

So, any comparison will be skewed by whatever viewpoint a person has on that position.

Personally, and I have said this thousands of times, I am glad we have them both....

DD

 

What do these numbers say about Kevin Martin? Chase Budinger?

At first glance, it appears that Kevin is a very good offensive player, and much better defensively than what he is perceived to be. Chase also seems to be an offensive gem, but is absolutely atrocious on defense. Am I reading this right?

 

If two players are playing the same position on the same team, it doesn't make sense to say they are being asked to do "completely different things".

The stats suggest that Lowry was one of the very best reserve PGs in the league, and Brooks was a nice, though not spectacular, starting PG. By saying Lowry's per-minute production was better than Brooks, I don't think the author is arguing that Lowry should be the one starting. He's just trying to illustrate how effective Lowry was last year, since Brooks is the one that got more pub.

 

yeah,

Math...who needs it?

Magnets...how do they work?

 

Again, PPP is an individual stat that fails to take into account whom you are playing against and with whom you are on the court with......

They are pieces to whatever puzzle you are personally trying to assemble.

Another example is that VSPan shot around 50% on his 2pt shots, which was way better than Rafer Alston......sounds good, right?



DD

 

In regards to brooks vs lowry,i wonder about lowry's production minus brooks. We know brooks can function well with hayes,battier,and ariza as 3/5 of the 5 and with the finishers in the 2nd unit.

 

Martin's very good defensive ranking stuck out to me. I'm not clear on how they calculate PPP on defense. Are they only tracking 1-on-1 situations? Defense is more team-oriented than offense, so I think its a good idea not to extrapolate too much from defensive PPP.

 

I agree Lowry is very effective with the 2nd unit......

And yes, it does make sense to say they are asked to do completely different things from the same position on the floor.

Brooks is asked to be the lead scorer when he is playing the point.

Lowry is asked to set his teamates up when he is playing the point.

Those are two completely different objectives from the same position.

Same can be said of a point forward, or a scoring forward....

This is where stats gurus lose their way, they focus on the numbers and remove the mission from the equation, you can't do that, you need to understand what the overall objective or role of a certain player is and find some way to factor that in....

The PPP does that a little bit, as it factors in all the possessions, but it does not take into account whether you are playing against backups, or the other teams first units......

Again, stats are a useful tool, but not the be all, end all, that some profess.

DD

 

Roles are not so rigidly defined.

 

This is one of the reasons why you should post less.

Adjusted plus minus controls for these factors -in fact it is expressly designed to do so and he still outplayed him, -.28 for Brooks to +3.71 for Lowry.

Game, set and match.

http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2009-2010&team=HOU