Hey guys , I've never been a baseball fan before. I'm starting to get really interested in the Astros, heck baseball in general. It would be appreciated if you guys were able to answer some newbie questions I have about the organization: 1. What is the general opinion among Stros fans on Lunhow/Bo Porter/Crane. From what I've read, Lunhow seems to be one of the best up and coming GMs in the league. For Bo Porter and Crane, I can't seem to get a consensus opinion on them. 2. When do you guy's expect the major league team to be on the upswing? I understand that the farm system has been turned into the best. With Rodon probably coming aboard after the draft, when will we start seeing the payoffs off the rebuilding? 3. How long do you guys expect Appel and Correa to stay in the Minors? George Springer (I know completely different issue) stayed down there for a while even though he's been putting up some great stats for awhile. Sorry if I got some of my facts wrong, I'm still trying to learn more about the team and MLB in general.
1. Love/Undecided/Hate 2. 3-4 years 3. Appel 1 year, Correa 2-3 years.. most probably expect to see rodon in an a stros uni before correa..
Luhnow is generally seen as being very good right now. He has been picking first so far though, and hasn't had an opportunity to build a true major league roster. Personally I like him a lot, but the true story has yet to be told. Porter has no chance to show his real ability with what he has been given. I like his fire, will be a shame if he doesn't get three more years to prove what he can do Crane is a total jerk. But some jerks can be successful, and there are many examples in professional sports. His story will be told in about another year when it's time to build a real major league team I think the team should be on the upswing next year. This year should be better but next year is gonna tell a lot. If Castro, Altuve, Springer, Cosart, Singleton are gonna be players we should know it by next year. Appel should be here by then as well as a couple other arms. If they so start Correa at AA this year it's likely we see him at some point next year. Not saying we truly compete for playoffs next year, but if in 2015 we aren't at least challenging a .500 record, things aren't going as well as some of us might think right now I think we see Appel this year and Correa next. Springer is a weird situation. Most think he has been kept down cause of money, but others have been moved through. Will be interesting to see what happens to him this year. We need a couple of these prospects to be true stars and he is one with that potential
So I see Sydeffect has decided to jump on the Astros bandwagon? :grin: My prospect predictions: Appel comes up in September, and gets a taste before starting on the 2015 opening day roster. Correa doesn't come up until late 2015, and becomes the full time shortstop in 2016. The Astros front office is trying their hardest to make sure these prospects are developed fully before promoting them and losing team control. My major league predictions: Springer wins rookie of the year! Cosart posts a sub 3.5 era! The bullpen ranks in the top 18 of the MLB! The Astros hit 73 wins!
I have mixed feelings on Luhnow, but mostly positive. I like Bo Porter long-term. He'll have managerial success, just a matter of if he will be around long enough for it to happen here. I like Jim Crane. He is an *******, but he is passionate about baseball, and he has set the team up for long-term success, plus done a great re-branding. Don't know if I'll ever forgive him fully for the AL move. The Astros are on the upswing. Unfortunately they've started from the floor, and they are 2-3 years from completing it. So much depends on how we are doing record wise, and financially. I think we see both in 2015.
Luhnow has turned around one of the worst farm systems in baseball into one of the best. Porter was a rookie and underwhelmed. Lunow expected more wins from the players the Astros fielded. At no point last season did the Astros "over achieve". Porter needs to grow into a better manager, or he will be let go by the time the Astros are competitive again. I don't know about Crane. He did hire Luhnow and the Astros do look like they are a team that will be competitive year in and out, starting in the near future. The Porter hire looks a bit iffy, though that he may be gone by the time it matters. My best guess for win total per year is 2014 - 70 2015 - 80 2016 - 90 Those numbers are optimistic. If true, the Astros should be sniffing the playoffs by the 2016 season. My guess for when they are full time starters at the start of the season are: 2014 - Springer 2015 - Singleton, Folty 2016 - Appel, Velasquez, Santana 2017 - Correa, Rodon, McCullers
I personally like Luhnow a lot and think we're in good hands, but I also believe he underestimated the time it will take for us to compete, especially in our division. When I spoke with him on the field during batting practice in 2012, he said he hoped the fans would stick with his process through another horrible year (which was last season), but honestly I can't see the team doing much better for another 2-3 years. We kind of got screwed that our first 1-1 pick, Correa, was a HS SS instead of a stand-out college player who would have reached the majors much faster and could have generated some excitement already (e.g., Michael Wacha for STL...not saying I'd rather have him, but he's already generated excitement). There just wasn't an obvious college player then. Crane is an ass, as we all know. That's been well documented on here. Porter -- who knows. He was dealt the worst possible hand of players, so you can't exactly look at win/loss record as an indicator yet.
1. I have really enjoyed Luhnow so far. He has stuck to his plan of building up the system, and he has conducted some very productive trades. For the most part, he has been fantastic and has been a huge reason to have hope in the future. Porter is "meh" to me. He has made odd in game decisions, but he seems to really have the club house. With a young team, I would rather have a manager that "gets the players" than someone that can make every decision correctly when it comes to changing pitchers and how to platoon. That being said, I think he will learn as he gets more experience. Crane made some bad choices early on and has been his own worst enemy it seems. Although, the money he spent this winter and moving the signs (that he put up) are enough to make me not hate him. 2. Expect a steady increase in wins this year (10-20 range) in my opinion. We had things go poorly for a team that already sucked last season. Improvements in the bullpen and outfield (Fowler and Springer) should be worth a fair amount of wins, and then factor in player development from some of the young guys, and things could be looking up! I do not think we will break .500 in 2015, but we will in 2016 as we will hopefully have Rodon, Appel, Folty, Cosart, and a maybe a decent FA in the rotation which could be exciting! 3. Appel should hopefully get a cup of coffee late this year if he does decently in AA. Being that he is fairly polished, it is safe to assume that he can zoom through the minors and a strong first half of the season for him could mean AAA or a long stint in AA before skipping AAA. Correa will hopefully be in AA by the end of the year, and he is just impressing me incredibly so far. I think he will be a 2015 call up. Maybe that's ambitious, but he could be on the Machado plan.
IMO, Singleton will be starting full time in 2014 and should win the job out of ST. If Correa is in AA this year, no chance it's 2017 before he takes over the job. I'd expect to see him late 2015 and Opening Day starter in 2016. Wouldn't be surprised to see Appel later this season and (assuming we draft him) Rodon in 2015.
1. Love Lunhow. As for Porter, I love his enthusiasm and his passion on the field. Like others said, he was dealt a horrible card, so we'll see how he fairs when the talent begins to shine. 2. It's hard to say. It just all depends on how the young talent performs. However, I do believe you'll see quite a bit of an increase next season due to our bullpen fixes alone. We lost way too many games because of our bullpen, and adding Qualls, Craine, etc will help out a lot. 3. Very possible for Appel to be up some time next season, most likely a late season call up. Correa said his goal was to finish the season in AA and have a successful season, so there's that for ya.
I too am starting to get more interested in baseball, last year I went to the Astros and had a great time with my son. So this season we will follow them closely, it's rough living 6 hours away but we will make some games this up coming season.
I hope that Singleton makes it this year, if he spends a majority of this year in the minors that is likely a sign that he isn't rebounding from last years disappointment which would be a bad sign. I also think 2016 is late for Appel. As a 4 year college guy taken at the top of the draft, it shouldn't take him 3 years to get here. Not saying you are wrong, but if it takes until 2016 I think that is a sign that he isn't going to be much more than a mid to back end of the rotation guy. I think he gets a few starts in September and is here for good next year Correa is obviously the best of the bunch, and the most interesting to see how he does this year. If he mashes and ends up at AA this year, he could get a late season call up in 2015 and be here for good after that. If he doesn't make it to AA and have success this year, then 2016 is probably a safe bet
AL West is a beast of a division. If the prospects pan out , the Astros can contend for a playoff spot in 2-3 years maybe.
I hope you are right. There is a fairly significant talent difference between college ball and A and AA and AAA and MLB. Most college draftees do not even sniff low A their first year. Appel did make it to low A. He put up good numbers but did not dominate. This year, I expect that Appel will spend most of his time in AA. The following year, I expect Appel will spend most of his time in AAA, with a late season callup possible. If Appel were to break camp with the Astros in 2015, this year he would have to split time between AA and AAA and have a September callup. We will see if that happens.
Players/pitchers today (if really good) should spend little to zero time at AAA (let alone "most of the season" as you suggest). There just isn't as much to "gain" there, and it seems to be used more as a stop-gap to clear the congestion if there's people already at the majors that are blocking, or younger guys in the minors that need promoting. Luhnow has said himself that there isn't a set time-table on any of these guys (FWIW). If Appel isn't up at some point this year, I'd expect him to be on the "Cosart" track, and make his debut next year after the super-2 arbitration deadline. Anything beyond that (or if they claim he needs to work on "this", and "that", and mechanics, and stamina, etc.), and I'd have fears that he isn't performing up to standards for a guy who was a #1 overall pick, and 4 year dominating college pitcher.
The Astros had two pitchers last year that dominated in AA. Both were rewarded for their efforts by being promoted to AAA, where they both pitched well but did not dominate. The Astros starting rotation all of last season was in such a disarray. If Luhnow really believed in the not-much-to-gain-in-AAA idea, both would have been promoted to MLB instead of AAA.
