Sistani Arrives to Break US Seige of Najaf Shrine.

I believe I said way back that the new Iraq will probably look a lot more like Iran than Turkey. It will probably be viewed as a loss for GWB down the road 5 years but in reality you cannot force a secular democracy onto a homogenous theocratic society unless you are prepared to use ruthless tactics for the intial period. (otherwise known as the DaDakota doctrine)

I just can't see the US ever supporting a hegemonic Alaawi regime that eliminates or prosecutes "religiuous" leaders to the degree that would be necessary to wrest control from the Islamic establishment. Atleast we have removed the a sadistic dictator from the power to torture and kill people at will.

The US need to adopt the long view, where we will eventually convert the world's young people through education, access to information and good ol' American materialism.

 

Sounds like the former USSR, where a pair of Levi's sold for $100 on the black market.

As for Sadr and Sistani, they're not going anywhere. They're probably the two most powerful guys in Iraq right now, and will end up having a huge say in who gets to run the country.

 

Excellent post GP. There are likely to be few Kemal Ataturks anywhere down the line.

The bad part, is though we f'n knew that going in, or at least I did.

The only problem I have iwht your analysis is the last paragraph, it seems like a certain amount of young male muslims exposed to western materialism reject it -- violently, and are driven along another path (thinking european terror cells, etc.)

 

They said that about the Chinese and Iranians awhile back. And many of the pro-Islam posters contend that the violent anti-Western muslims are a super small majority.

 

I agree with the fact that we eliminated a sadistic dictator from power, but question that Iraq is a homogeneous theocracy. The Baath party is predominantly Sunni muslim, while Al-Sadr and other groups are Shiite muslim. There are also the kurds which have been persecuted based on religion and ethnicity. A secular democracy may be the only thing that will keep this country from becoming another civil war torn state based on western lines that divides peoples ala Rwanda.

 

Yes I agree that Shiites and Sunni's are not homogenous in the context of Islam but they are Islamic in the context of world cultures and theyagree that a Islamic theocracy is the preferred government over a secular one.

And, although the Baathist arose out of the Sunni clans they were essentially a fascist group that used religion only to promote their power.

The Kurds better arm up; they will soon be fighting their own war of independence.

 

But I think that any secular form of government will lead to a repressed group or groups because of the differences in the sects of the religions.

If either adhere to Islamic Law, then there are conflicts. The Shia believe that the head of the religious faith is able to re-interpret the meaning of the Quran, versus the more strict adherence as in the Sunni. This would be a time bomb waiting to happen. Just look at the Iran(shia)/ Iraq (baath= sunni govt) war and they obviously cannot coexist in a religious state because of the differences in ideology.

Therefore the only options are either a dictatorial fascist state that's iron fist controls the people or a secular government. I think the Iraq situation could've been handled better, but to bring democracy to these people and have a secular state to allow peace would be the US giving these people a gift of freedom that hopefully could spread through the middle east which is ripe full of brutal dictatorships. We must be optimistic that the people want freedom and will follow the footsteps and lead to a change in the area that could promote world stability as well as stability in oil prices.

The question is whether you feel these people are worth the risk? I for one, do.

 

glynch, you are a little off. Right now Sistani and Sadr are rivals. He went to Najaf to stop Sadr, as well. Sadr had militia placed along the roads leading to Najef to stop Sistani's followers from converging on the city.

Sistani could actually be a very good person for Iraq. He is a religious figure, but in interviews and statements he does not want Iraq to be a theocracy. He seems to really want a Democracy...just a US-free democracy. That is why he and his group are Sadr rivals.

 

We may wind up having to do in Iraq what happened in Yugoslavia...divide it into three seperate nations....one Sunni, one Shiite, and one Kurd.

 

The sad truth is that its always easy to divide people and we can continue to find differences in each other. Some villages bicker because of rival families for goodness sakes.

It takes a true leader and hero to bring peoples together and have a system that includes not excludes.

 

Spot on. And if they have a (secular) democracy then there shouldn't be a reason for the US to still be there.

 

I agre with this. Anytime you have a theocracy based or influenced government, there is a decent chance of some sort of religious fervor that kills all logical thought. Religion can be a great dividing force at times throughout history. Running a country based on religion, in my opinion just doesn't work.

 

It should also be pointed out that Sadr and Sistani are not equals. Sistani enjoys much more support than Sadr does, and he is calling for peace not militancy. That appears to be a good thing.

 

Where is there an indication of the Najaf shrine being attacked? Or that even US or Iraqi forces did it??

I think you're wrong here... it looks like unfriendlies firing on one another from all indications.

Mortar Shells Hit Mosque in Old Iraq City


Blood and shrapnel covered the grounds of the ancient Kufa mosque compound Thursday after at least two mortar blasts ripped through a crowd of Iraqis gathered to march to the holy city of Najaf, killing at least 27 people and wounding at least 63.

The explosions tore chunks from the walls of the Kufa mosque, a revered Shiite site dating to the earliest days of Islam. Television footage showed bloodied survivors heaving corpses onto truck beds.

The mosque violence was the fourth attack in two days around Kufa; the other three killed marchers and bystanders at rallies. At least 40 people total have been killed and 165 wounded in the recent bloodshed, and as night fell, it remained unclear who was responsible.

The mortar shells whistled overhead and hit the mosque grounds Thursday morning as the building and its yard were packed with people heeding a call from Grand Ayatollah Ali Husseini al-Sistani to join him in bringing peace to neighboring Najaf.

The Kufa mosque is the usual pulpit for radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose militia has been holed up for weeks in a Najaf shrine battling U.S. and Iraqi forces and whom al-Sistani approached Thursday with a cease-fire plan.

After the blasts, the morgue at the nearby hospital overflowed with casualties. At least 15 bodies covered with plastic sheets lay in a garden outside, with mourners huddled around them.

One man, his robe stained with blood, shivered with sobs as he sat next to a body. "Mohammed! Mohammed," he cried, beating his chest.

Inside the hospital, distraught people ran through the corridors or fanned the wounded with towels. The injured cried out in pain.

"May God damn America," another man yelled. He held a pint of IV fluid for an injured companion.

Those at the scene blamed the U.S.-allied Iraqi military or Americans for the blasts, charges both denied. Allawi blamed an unspecified "spiteful group" opposed to peace.

A U.S. military official said it was possible guerrillas firing at nearby Iraqi National Guard positions overshot their target and hit the mosque. The official said the blasts also could have been caused by misfiring rebel munitions.

"This is savagery," said Hameed Jassim, a worshipper from nearby Kut who was injured in the leg. "There were thousands of us outside when the explosion took place."

The mosque attack came a day after another unexplained blast in Kufa, apparently also caused by a stray mortar shell. It killed two civilians, one an 8-year-old boy.

In violence later Thursday, others heeding al-Sistani's call filled the road into Najaf, strolling unarmed but carrying shimmering green-and-red Shiite flags. As they passed an Iraqi National Guard base, gunmen peppered the procession with automatic weapons fire, witnesses said. At least three people were killed and 46 wounded.

It was unclear who attacked. A witness said there were scruffy, armed men belonging to al-Sadr's militia blocking a street to make room for the marchers when the shooting broke out.

As the firing began, panicked marchers turned and ran back toward Kufa, barreling into the crowd behind them.

A day earlier, another procession to Najaf was ambushed at the same spot. Associated Press Television News footage showed demonstrators first chanting slogans in favor of al-Sadr and against the Iraqi prime minister, then fleeing in panic under a flurry of bullets.

Hospital officials said eight people were killed and 56 wounded. APTN footage showed furious participants displaying bloodied wounds. The men shouted that they were not part of al-Sadr's militia.

Witnesses said the gunfire appeared to come from the National Guard post, which sat behind concrete blast walls along the parade route. But an Interior Ministry official said there was no reason for Iraqi police or National Guard to target peaceful processions, suggesting foreign fighters shot the marchers in a bid to sow chaos.


http://my.ev1.net/english/news/newsarticle.asp?articleID=35068476&subject=world

 

Sistani appears to support democracy and January elections because he knows he commands the Shia majority and would have the defacto power though his ability to issue fatwas. I don't know if he understands that in a democracy the majority is obliged to insure the rights of the minority. Certainly the are provisions in Islam (and of course I am no expert) that require tolerance but as with most religions the interpretation and practice of the tenats are changeable.

He is however, the best hope on the horizon to unify and pacify Iraq. Let's just hope he has a more worldly view than the Iranian ayatollas.

( why does it seem that people always flock to personalities rather than ideals? You'd think just coming out from under the rule of Saddam Hussein the Iraqi people would'nt want any one person to hold too much power. But even in the establishment of our own democracy there were those that wanted to appoint George Washington king. It's a great argument in support of mandatory term limits)

 

There many not be very many violent ones, but there are a LOT of Anti Western Muslims.

If you're looking to seperate religion and state from each other in Iraq, it won't work.

 

Come on, we will have a base in Iraq for years...that does not mean we will be an occupying force....look at Germany for an example.

I am glad they want to go forward with the democratic process, it is exactly what should happen.

DD

 

Well, Sistani is higher up as well. I was reading that he pretty much has to follow any kind of direct mandate from Sistani if he wants to stay within the religious system. Interesting indeed. glynch - I know you said "if" I just meant to imply that it is highly doubtful they would join forces to be on Sadr's side. It would be the smarter, gentler Sistani.