As we all know, Wins/Losses is the measure of playoff seeds. But during the regular season, some teams have played more away games than others, so Pat Riley once pointed out the Away Wins vs Home Losses is actually more accurate than W/Ls. I call this a team's Riley Record. <div width=100% align=center><table border=1><tr><td colspan=5 align=center><b>Riley Record Standings:</B></td></tr><tr><td>Seed</td><td>Team</td><td>Away Wins</td><td>Home Losses</td><td>Difference</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>LA</td><td>23</td><td>8</td><td>+15</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Utah</td><td>16</td><td>3</td><td>+13</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>SA</td><td>17</td><td>6</td><td>+11</td></tr><tr><td>T4</td><td>Hou</td><td>20</td><td>10</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>T4</td><td>Pho</td><td>20</td><td>10</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>T4</td><td>NO</td><td>20</td><td>10</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>T4</td><td>DAL</td><td>15</td><td>5</td><td>+10</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>GS</td><td>18</td><td>10</td><td>+8</td></tr></table></div> Before you say that this is just another stat, it is not. It is a mathematical fact that Away Wins vs Homes Losses EXACTLY matches playoff position at the end of the season...just like W/Ls does. But, it is a better measure throughout the season. If every team wins out at Home and loses remaining away games, we'll end up tied for 4th seed. If every team loses one more Home game and wins one Away game, we'll end up tied for 4th seed...and so on. <b>Fact</b>: Every game over .500 you are in W/Ls at the end of the season, you will be <b>exactly</b> half that in Away Wins vs Home Losses. <b>Proof</b> if you are 60-22 to end the year...try every combination 41 - 0 at home requires 19-22 away. That a +19 Riley Record...exactly 1/2 of +38 W/L record. 40-1 at home requires 20-21 away. +19 Riley Record 39-2 at home requires 21-20 away. +19 Riley Record and so on.
far from meaningless...Away Win/Home Losses are very meaningful. at the end of the season, Riley Record standings will exactly match W/L standings. The fact we are 4th right now means other teams have a better home record than us or road record...or some combination of both. We can't get those home losses back.
quit being so sensitive guys. Away Wins vs Home Losses is a very common measure than NBA Coaches use. Just wanted to put it in Table form for everyone to see. Umm, sorry to correct you. But you logic is meaningless. Because Pho, NO and LA also control their own destiny. If each of those teams wins out, they all 3 pass us...thus 4th seed for us, which takes us back to my thread title. see?
uhh...Riley Record does determine playoff seed, because it is mathematically fixed to overall Wins /Losses, at the end of the season. At the end of the season...they are the same! There is a reason many NBA Coaches look at their "Riley Record" through the season vs their W/Ls.
This is probably a good measure at the end of the season were all the teams play the same amount of home and road games. But as of now the Rockets played 5 more home games than road games while the Jazz is the opposite. That can only hurt the Rockets in the standings for now.
This is exactly why it's a more accurate barometer than straight standings. Utah is going to play more home games where their winning % is higher and we're going to play more road games where our winning % is lower.
I'm with you hey partner this is a very good tool. Its not really a stat its a tool that is used to see where people will likely finish. Its better than straight standings during the season because straight standings don't take into count how many home/away games teams have player this does to a degree. I think the people criticizing are one of two things. Either they don't want to hear this right now because we are 1st in standings and they prefer 1st to 4th and therefore toss this out or they don't fully comprehend this tool or thought it through. Although the guy who said we control our own destiny is right. Just because this tool would indicate we will finish 4th doesn't mean we will. We could very well win on the road every time (we do have that streak still going) and continue a good percentage at home. That would make us climb up the list.
Or it means that some teams have played more road games than we have. This method doesn't penalize road losses or reward home losses, so having more road games (thus more chances at getting road wins) and less home games (so fewer chances at home losses) will skew the numbers. This will only even out at the end of the season, when all teams have an equal number of home/road games. Since this method is supposed to compare teams with unbalanced schedules, it's much more accurate to use home/road winning percentages than pure wins/losses. All you have to do is average the home winning percentage and the road winning percentage while weighing them the same. In that case: HW=Home Wins HL=Home Losses HW %=Home Winning % etc. For the Average Winning %, all I did was add the Home Winning % and the Road Winning % and divided by 2. This averaged out the Winning % by weighing both percentages the same. This does exactly what the Riley Record was supposed to do, which is to compare team with unbalanced schedules. With the Riley Record, the Lakers and Jazz were overvalued because they had 5 more road games than home. But using winning percentages, it puts them more logically where they belong. LA is still ahead of us, but they're not 5 games ahead of us, when we're tied in actuality. That just wouldn't make sense.
Nothing is skewed. Just because a team has played more road games doesn't mean they are placed higher in teh Riley Record. They still have to win those road games to avoid the loss that would be a negative in the situation. The same goes for the teams who have played at home more they still have to win to get the positive. It's a simple +/- so there's no way to have it skewed one way or the other. Your way is okay too but I wouldn't say its quite as good.
Of course it's skewed. Let's say: Team A: 6-2 at home, 1-1 on the road. That's a .700 winning pct (7-3 overall). Team B: 1-1 at home, 2-6 on the road. That's a .300 winning pct (3-7 overall). But according to the Riley Record (Road Wins-Home Losses): Team A: 1 road win - 2 home losses = -1 Team B: 2 road wins - 1 home loss = 1 So according to Riley, Team B (with a .300 win%) is ranked higher than Team A (with a .700 win%). This is an extreme case, but it clearly shows that this method favors teams with more road games than home. The bigger difference between home/road games between each team, the bigger the skew. Only at the end of the season when all teams have an equal number of home/road games will the numbers accurately reflect their standings.
Yes your example shows it could skew except for the fact the NBA doesn't schedule home/road that badly. They give you some at home then some on the road. Over a two or three week course you will playing very close to the same amount of home/away games. Therefore this tool is good and you don't really have to worry about it being skewed, especially this late in the year.
I'm not going to dismiss or mock the formula - normally I'd put at least some stock into it. But right now, we've got a situation that I haven't seen before as a fan. The west is so jammed and tight, literally anything could happen. I highly doubt the seeding will be determined until the final week of the regular season, and that desire is going to be MASSIVE as West squads wage war against one another. I just hope we get through our inevitable hangover period as fast and as painlessly as possible. Evan
I like this stat, and it is useful in determining how well the team is playing. However, it doesn't tell everything...the Rockets have 10 more games on the road, and they could win them all, increasing their stat by a lot. Let's just see how they do...11 straight on the road so far.... DD
Useless, condescending post. It is another arbitrary statistic that is another way of predicting how well a team is playing.
