[SI.com] Rockets hope GM-in-waiting turns out to be money

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/marty_burns/04/25/morey.rockets/index.html

The news that Yao Ming underwent successful foot surgery last week and is expected to make a full recovery by training camp is certainly good for the Rockets. With Yao and a healthy Tracy McGrady (and maybe Bob Sura as well), Houston can expect to be back in the postseason next year.

But do the Rockets have enough to take it to the next level and compete for an NBA title?

That's where the Houston front office comes into play. The job for GM Carroll Dawson and his staff this summer is finding the right pieces with which to surround T-Mac and Yao. With a high draft choice and a mid-level exception worth $5 million, they have some options.

They also hope to get an assist from new assistant GM Daryl Morey.

Morey is the whiz-kid stats analyst who made news last month when he was hired from the Celtics, where he worked on the business side, to take over as Dawson's eventual replacement. With his background as a Bill James disciple, Morey's hiring was hailed as the NBA's first venture into "Moneyball."

"Fair or not, that's the label that's going to get attention," says Morey, 33, who admits he has James and Oakland A's GM Billy Beane on his speed dial. "But at the end of the day it's about looking for an edge wherever you can find it. It just so happens that I bring a different background and perspective."

The Northwestern and MIT grad spent the last three years in Boston analyzing statistical data on everything from Celtics attendance to rebound rates. That's why he has been compared to Beane, whose use of statistical analysis and traditional scouting made him the subject of the 2003 best-seller Moneyball.

Unlike Beane, Morey has never played professionally. He hasn't scouted. He doesn't have relationships with fellow GMs around the league.

That has led to some predictable scoffing from media and fans alike. He has heard the sports talk radio pundits and read the comments on Web blogs. He knows there are plenty of people wondering how a guy who never played basketball past high school and has never scouted a game in his life could become GM of the Rockets next year.

You know what? He understands.

He just wants folks to give it a chance. For one, Morey says he has more experience on the basketball side than many think, since he worked closely with Celtics GM Danny Ainge in Boston. Also, he will not have to start immediately making trades and signing free agents. He will serve as assistant GM in Houston this season before taking over for Dawson in 2007.


Morey will spend next season working closely with Dawson, who has been with the Rockets for 27 years, to learn the nuances of scouting and contracts. He will meet the other GMs and player-personnel types around the league. His upcoming schedule includes a trip to Orlando for the June predraft camp, then overseas for some international scouting.

"We're going to take him around and introduce him to all the GMs and agents," Dawson says. "That's important in the context of making trades and getting things done. His expertise right now is in finding players. He still has to learn the basketball side.

"But we have a strong staff here that will help him. Daryl is an impressive guy. No ego. Hard-working. He's going to fit in real well."

Morey emphasizes that his hiring in no way means the Rockets aren't going to continue to rely on scouting and traditional methods of basketball evaluation. He simply wants to add a new dimension. He says stats-based analysis can help provide a clearer picture of a player's worth.

"Whether it's a scout or stats or a psychological profile, you're looking for ways to forecast the future," he says. "Numbers don't always tell the whole story. But they might raise the right question. You use any edge that can give you a leg up."

Morey cites as one example a stat called Efficient Use of Possessions. Instead of simply looking at a player's scoring average, he says, it provides a measure of how efficient the player is in using those possessions to reach that number. In other words, does he shoot every time down court? Or does he score within the offense?

Ground Truth is another measure he finds helpful. It tracks how each player performs with the other nine players on the court. Thus a player doesn't get penalized for playing with the second unit or, conversely, get too much credit for flourishing against the opposition's scrubs.

"There are areas that could be called undervalued," he says. "They provide a clearer picture of what's happening. It's just a different way of looking at things."

As for next year's Rockets, Morey hopes to do his part to help Dawson and his staff make the moves necessary to get them into title contention. With Yao and McGrady, Houston probably doesn't need a major overhaul, but the Rockets know they are still missing some key pieces to be considered a serious title contender. For example, Houston clearly could use a shooting guard and a power forward with some range.

The good news for Houston it that it has a lottery pick (No. 8 overall right now, and no worse than No. 11) as well as New York's second-round pick (No. 32) from the Maurice Taylor trade and the aforementioned mid-level exception, which could be used on one player or split.

Some of the names that might be available when Houston drafts include J.J. Redick, Brandon Roy, Rudy Gay, Randy Foye, Mardy Collins, Rodney Carney, Ronnie Brewer and Tiago Splitter. Some of the free agents on the market who might fit Houston's needs and be available at mid-level money include Bonzi Wells, Ronald Murray, Bobby Jackson and Speedy Claxton.

How do the Rockets decide which player is worth the money, so they don't make another Stromile Swift-like mistake? That's the trick for Dawson and his staff this summer. They hope Morey's statistical evaluation and expertise can help them make a more informed decision.

Morey, meanwhile, knows he will soon be under the spotlight like never before. Nearly all NBA teams now employ some kind of statistical-based analyst to help with their personnel decisions. Those number-crunchers, as well as the entire NBA, will be watching to see if his Moneyball methods can work in pro basketball.

"We'll see how it works out," he says. "I try not to focus too much on methods. It's really about results. If we're successful, people will see how we created an edge and they will look to follow it."

And if not, all those hoops sabermetricians will be confined to relative obscurity, and Morey's Moneyball (the NBA version) will end up in the discount bin at bookstores.