I was looking at the stats & noticed a growing trend with which players take how many shots per game & how many W's we get as a result. It started out with me looking for trends in our last 9 games, since we're 7-2 during that stretch. I ended up going back to the beginning of December (the last 23 games) & found what I believe to be an interesting trend. I only focused on the Big 3 of Yao, Francis, & Mobley & here's what I found out. The team's record is in parenthesis. The last 23 games (14-9) < 15 FGA Francis (9-3) Mobley (7-6) Yao (11-9) 15+ FGA Francis (5-6) Mobley (7-3) Yao (3-0) Yao w/ 10+ FGA (11-2) Yao w/ < 9 FGA (3-7) I'm sure there are other factors that have come into play over the last 23 games, but I believe these stats show an obvious trend. Francis w/< 15 FGA (9-3) Mobley w/15+ FGA (7-3) Yao w/10+ FGA (11-2) The team is (3-0) when all 3 of these conditions exist & (10-3) when 2 of the 3 conditions exist. Also, 2 of the 3 losses were by 1 point. I don't know if this information is useful or not, or if it just shows that I don't really have a life, but it does show me that a trend exists. If Francis would reduce his shots on goal & defer to Yao & Mobley more often than not, this team could be a very high seed in the playoffs. Once you get there, anything can happen. Any thoughts?
I think you made that all up. Let's see what happens when the spotlight is off of Steve and he reverts back to his old ways. These stats will mean nothing then.....
good stat. It is no surprise though, because Yao is the best scorer percentage wise. Everybody knows. This thing I would like to look into is how Yao's % changes by the FGA he makes. My impression is he makes around 50% of shots when he takes more than 10 shots a game.
Get a sense of humor, or better yet use the frickin' stats that will support the crap you were spouting about the spotlight.... Because until you do, that was an idiotic and ignorant pile of crap...
Interesting post. I remember when the Oilers had the stat of Winning all the time when Earl ran 30+ times a game. But it turned out that running Earl every play wasn't the answer. Earl ran a lot when we had the lead, and the stat was sort of a cart before the horse stat. Is steve shooting more, and we lose those games, because nobody else is hitting? ( The reverse of cours is that when everybody else is hitting, Steve deferrs to them, and takes less shots - we win not because Steve passes more, but because our shots are falling. ) Is it possible Steve's basketball IQ is not as low as we think, and he is in fact taking what the defense is giving us? Just seems like to much to hopw for, doesn't it. Well, I have a dream...
these seem pretty similar to one's Clutchy posted last week on the same topic http://bbs.clutchcity.net/php3/showthread.php?s=&threadid=71372
Exactly what do you bring to this board? You never argue with stats or facts to state your point. Then you bash posters who DO try to make a valid point with them. And then you take things out of context and twist them to bash JVG. Even when the thread isn't even about him. Go away. On the thread related note, it is an interesting pattern of the record vs. FGA. I think it proves the point JJ was quoted as, when Yao gets more involved in the game, good things happen. Hopefully he's finally realized this.
Having a bad day? I think my quote would describe you, based on what I read. Just don't bother to complain about the quality of posts in the GARM, ricerocket, if this is what you can contribute. You haven't a leg to stand on. Keep it up, Hottoddie. Clutch, you and some others have posted threads along similar lines and it makes for interesting reading. Keep it up. It's pretty clear that when Francis concentrates (golly, what a word to apply to the guy! Maybe he's coming around) on running the offense the way he should and gets his points in the flow of the game, good things happen. If he's really feeling it, then he should take more shots, but only within the flow of the offense... not taking it on himself to do it all on his own, as he has done all too often.
Good post. The link to clutch's thread is interesting as well. It's clear that the Rockets are playing their best ball when Mobley and Yao are important parts of the offense. Unfortunately, statistics can't really tell us whether it's the chicken or the egg (whether when we're playing well, we can get those two involved more... or whether we play well because we do). Of course, the answer is probably both... though honestly, I don't have any great insight into it. If the wins were solely against crap teams, I'd say it's just that the offense only runs well against bad teams. But the offense was quite beautiful, for instance, against the T-Wolves... but horrible against the Mavericks. *shrug*
Same trend, same result. Francis 9-19 (15+ FGA) (5-7) (42% W's) Mobley 5-14 (<15 FGA) (7-7) (50% W's) Yao 4-7 (less than 10 FGA) (3-8) (27% W's) The last 24 games (14-10) (58% W's) < 15 FGA Francis (9-3) (75% W's) Mobley (7-7) (50% W's) Yao (11-10) (52% W's) 15+ FGA Francis (5-7) (42% W's) Mobley (7-3) (70% W's) Yao (3-0) (100% W's) Yao w/ 10+ FGA (11-2) (85% W's) Yao w/ < 10 FGA (3-8) (27% W's) I'll update these numbers again, after the next 11 games, or when we hit 35 games on this stretch.
It's time for another update. Again, the team record is in parenthesis. The last 37 games (22-15) (59% W's) < 15 FGA Francis (15-4) (79% W's) Mobley (15-10) (60% W's) Yao (15-14) (52% W's) 15+ FGA Francis (7-10) (41% W's) Mobley (7-5) (58% W's) Yao (7-1) (88% W's) Yao w/ 10+ FGA (18-5) (78% W's) Yao w/ < 10 FGA (4-10) (29% W's) Francis w/< 15 FGA (15-4) (79% W's) Mobley w/15+ FGA (7-5) (58% W's) Yao w/10+ FGA (18-5) (78% W's) The team is still (3-0) when all 3 conditions occur (it obviously, doesn't happen too often). The team is (16-5) when 2 of the 3 conditions exist. Two of the losses were by 1 point & the third loss was during Francis's 1 game suspension. After 37 games (beginning the first of December), this is showing a pretty solid trend. 16-5 is a winning percentage of 76%. That kind of winning percentage would make us the best team in the NBA. Just a little something to make you go, hmmmmmm.......
Of course, the statistics prove one thing pretty absolutely: Yao's offensive involvement and performance is generally outcome determinative. However, it begs the question as to whether the team plays poorly when Yao plays poorly... or whether when the team fails to properly involve Yao, the Rockets suffer. I assume, as most here I think, that it's a bit of both. The evidence is strongest in pointing towards, however, the necessity to make Yao the absolute focus of the offense. If he plays poorly - there wouldn't be a change, because of adjustment. But if he plays well, it would seem to be the most statistically successful way of creating positive outcomes.
Let me throw some more numbers at you, involving just Yao & Francis. When Francis takes 10-15 FGA's per game, the team is (18-3). Whereas, if he takes less than 10 FGA's per game, the team is (4-11). Now, here's the real eye popper. When Francis takes 10-15 FGA's & Yao takes 10+ FGA's, the team is (14-1). The only loss was a 1 point loss to Denver, in Denver, the night after we blew the Lakers out in LaLa Land. As many times as I (& others) have proposed trading Francis, these stats prove that Yao & Francis have the potential to become one of the most lethal 1-2 punches in NBA history. Okay, okay, okay (rolling eyes, ala Joe Pesci in Lethal Weapon), I'll temper my enthusiasm, since it's only a 15 game sample. Besides, we still have to convince Francis that he & the team would be much more effective, if he makes the other players shine & forgets about being on the ESPN highlight reel everynight.
I really appreciate all this information. So, Steve's optimal range is 10-15 shots per game. Below that, the team has suffered recently... and above, it suffers as well? Do you have an "optimal range" for Yao? I know there's a sample size problem there, since he hasn't had many games of very high shot totals... but I'd be curious to know if his optimal # is open-ended or bounded. Thanks hottoddie .
You're welcome. Yao 15+ FGA (7-1) (88% W's) 10-15 FGA (14-4) (78% W's) 10+ FGA (18-5) (78% W's) < 10 FGA (4-10) (29% W's) It's very obvious that, the more involved in the offense that Yao gets, the better our chances of winning are. While the 15+ FGA stat is an extremely small sampling, it sure does give one room for pause. What could this team do if they gave Yao as many shots as Dream got? I smell another Championship.
shots on goal are determining wins and losses... Rockets are bottom 2 or 3 in the league in shots attempted per game, I believe (they were before the ASG). More shots = more points = more wins since our defense is already there.
