Right now it is 51-49 Dem (+2 Indep)-Rep. This year 15 Rs went up, 9 got re-elected (6 Dem pick ups), 18 of 18 Ds got re-elected. Lets look at the 6 switches: -Virginia. This race had been 52-48 for Allen before (2002election/2003class). -Mo: This has flipped 3 times because of special circumstances, 51-49 Ds, 50-49 Rs, and back to Ds. -MT: also close race last time, 51-49 for Burns in 2002. -PA: Santorum had won 53-46 in 2002. -OH: Dewine had won 61/36 -RI: Chafee had won 57/42 The main thing to look at is except in unusual circumstances don't expect an strong incumbant to lose. Chafee, a closet D in a D state, and Dewine, caught in Ohio political storm, were the only exceptions. Otherwise you can largely predict who might be vulnerable based on the previous margin. Next election there are 21 Rep senate seats up, 12 Dem seats up. Of those where the current incumbant won by less than 15%--suggesting vulnearbility: REP: (8) Alexander TN 54/44 Allard CO 51/46 Chambliss GA 53/46 Coleman MN 50/47 Cornyn TX 55/43 Dole NC 54/45 Graham SC 54/44 Sununu NH 51/47 DEM (6) Harkin IA 54/44 Johnson SD 50/49 Landrieu LA 46/muliple opponents Lautenberg NJ 54/44 Pryor AR 54/46 Barring big scandles or major public tidal waves it will be hard for the Rs to retake the Senate next election. Johnson and Landrieu would be their best shots, but then they have to defend Sununu and Coleman bigtime and maybe Allard. In short it would all have to fall right (win their tough incumbant battles and knock off two D incumbants) to put the Senate at 51-49Rs. It can happen, as we saw this cycle, but it is tough. As for Class III senators, up in 2010 there are then 19Rs up and 15Ds. Salazar in CO and Lincoln in AR would be the Ds most vulnearable. Bunning in KY, Burr in NC, Martinez in FL, Murkowski in AR and Vitter in LA would be the most vulnearable Rs. Overall the difficulty for the Rs in picking up just the 1 seat deficit shows what kind of major swift we had this cycle. It was to such degree a Dem Senate is likely barring another political sea change until the recent senate class (24Ds-9Rs) is up for re-election, 2012.
I will enjoy seeing John Cornyn go down in flames two years from now. He is nothing more than a rubber-stamp for the Administration.
i think the house is much more danger. i dont think we can keep it. theres a bunch of seats that only came our way because of scandals but are in firmly republican areas.
The House will swing based on overall party positioning/popularity. It could go anywhere. The Senate is much more cycle dependent and takes a long time and major political sea changes to turn over. The beauty of the framers. Besides, I care more about the Senate and their role in the courts, and ideological swing in the courts over the last 6 years have been scary. There is now a reasonable check, and probably will be for some time regardless of the next president.
Dems will keep it. It would take a similar wave to push things back. Odds of that happening twice in two years are extremely remote. Plus, a bunch of the Repubs are now in the minority and that's no fun. I expect to see more retirements on their side next round and consequently, more open seats. Also, there are a bunch of Dems that just narrowly lost. Give them another two years to build their organization and district relationships and they'll be as strong or stronger. Finally, it looks like Dems will have the advantage in the state houses and governorships going in to 2010. If they hang on and improve, that sets Dems up nicely to redistrict after the 2010 Census in such a way that the pernicious influence of the Republican led redistricting will be greatly countered. On the Senate side, the numbers for 2008 are staggeringly favorable to the Dems: Republicans defending 21 of 33, Dems just 12. If I were a betting man, I'd say Sununu (NH), Allard (CO), and Coleman (MN) are toast already. A Ford-Alexander race would be great fun. I expect Domenici to retire in NM, leaving an open seat in a 50/50 state. Virginia is there for the taking if Mark Warner wants it, especially if Warner retires. And then there's Smith in OR, a freshman Repub in an increasingly blue state. Dems will have to hold SD and LA, but I think that's likely, especially given Dean's desire to build up the Dem organization and run a Dem for every office, as well as the SD Repubs overplaying their hand a lot recently. Dems may also make a run at KY and NE. I also question the ability of the Repubs to find solid non-winger candidates for all these races.
I work in Louisiana, and I would be shocked if Landrieu won re-election. She and Governor Blanco were seen as worse in Katrina response than even the President. Time will tell how long of a memory the voters have, but were she up right now, she'd have a really hard time. (I'd say she'd lose outright, but it's Louisiana. She might be up against David Duke.)
How come I start to laugh any time the words "Louisiana" and "politics" are mentioned in the same sentence?
i dont know about the house staying. just off hand i can assure you that lampson probably wont win in 08 given fort bend and that mark foley lost with only 4 thousand votes. two seats right there. im sure we can go thru the gains and find a bunch more. so i'd be worried if i was in the leadership to ensure that some of these seats get attention and nice committee assignments and pork if necessary. i think cornyn is weak. i dont know who can run against him...but with enough money i think if iraq stays a mess...someone can give us a real fight for that seat. however i think bush will roll over and pull out troops at least a sizable proportion by 08 to give the republican presidential candidate a real shot.
I think that the next Supreme Court opening that comes up before the end of Bush's regime, perhaps the seat of the 85 year old John Paul Stevens, John Cornyn will be nominated to fill that seat. He might actually be confirmed if nominated due to Senate congeniality and his experience as TX Supreme Court Justice.
Oh, god... don't start my day off with such a thought! The man is an empty suit. The only thing Cornyn has going for him is his "distinguished bearing." He looks like a classic caricature of a senator, or jurist. The problem with the guy is that it's all looks. Like RMT, I can't wait for someone in Texas to take him out. Just don't let him on the SC before that happens! Keep D&D Civil.
Is Stevens in poor health or has he said anything to the like? He might wait and see how the political winds are blowing in a year or two and whether conservatives will further lose power in next election (more senate seats and/or the presidency). It is only another 2 years he would need to hang in there and as we saw with Rehnquest (who was terminal in fact) you don't have to be healthy to retain your seat. I seriosuly doubt he gives the Bush adm a chance to replace him based on seeing Bush's last nominee (Alito) who replaced a pragmatic conservative (SDay). Outside of Ginsberg or Stevens health really going down hill, they will almost surely wait for a less ideologically conservative Executive to replace them, which is almost guaranted. (If the Republican candidate wins it will be someone like McCain with a more indepedent streak). I think they take their chances with a less conservative President and a probably no less Democratic senate (at best the Republicans could gain a seat or two as detailed above, but again unless their is a sea change don't count on it, and it is likely Senate stays Blue with a seat or two gain).
i know up until 3-4 years ago stevens would drive to the court on a regular basis so i'd imagine he's in pretty good shape for a man of his age...
