Right now it's 49-49-2. The two independents are Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, both of whom have caucused with the Dems. The political reality is Sanders may as well be a Democrat. Lieberman is problematic. For the sake of discussion, let's consider it 50-49-1. I think everyone can agree that is a legit starting point. This election cycle, the GOP holds 23 seats that are up for election and the Dems have 12. The reason there are 35 seats contested instead of the normal 33/34 is because Trent Lott of MS stepped down last December. MS actually has two seats being contested this year, one of them being the remaining 4 years of Lott's seat. Cutting to the chase, there are no Dem incumbents really in doubt. I don't think Mary Landrieu has a realistic chance of losing now. There are 9 GOP seats that have a chance of being flipped. New Mexico and Virginia are all but settled. So at the present time, I think new baseline is 52-47-1 with these 7 state being competitive: Alaska. "Uncle Ted" Stevens is in serious trouble. This joker needs to go Colorado. Udall (D) has led Schaffer (R) virtually the entire campaign Minnesota. Norm Coleman vs. Al Franken. Would be a shame if a clown like Franken won, which I doubt he will Mississippi. Wicker (R) has always held a narrow lead New Hampshire. Shaheen's lead has almost disappeared. This used to be an obvious Dem pickup. Don't know what's happened the last couple of months North Carolina. Elizabeth Dole (R) has recently fallen behind Oregon. Gordon Smith (R) has recently fallen behind To reach 60, all of these states have to go Dem and Lieberman must continue to caucus with them. I seriously doubt this will happen but it's within the realm of possibility. I want the Dems to win 57/58 seats and to put a beatdown on the GOP. Thoughts, opinions and insights welcome, especially on why Shaheen has blown her lead in NH.
Shaheen has blown her lead for two reasons: Sununu's running a great campaign with the help of the national party (and the unusually strong NH GOP), and Sarah Palin's selection and the rejuvenation of the GOP base coupled with Hillary not being on the ballot may have cut deeply into Shaheen's huge advantage among women. But I still think, barring a catastrophe, Shaheen wins. In addition to NM and VA, AK, CO, and NH will definitely go to the Dems, and MS definitely goes to the GOP. That leaves OR (leans Democrat IMO because of the hate for Bush), MN (leans GOP, but economy is hurting them too here), and NC. With the way the Obama people are working in NC to get straight-ticket turnout, I think NC might be the shocker on election night. MS should go GOP because of presidential coattails, but I guess stranger things have happened. So with NH, VA, AK, CO,NM all Dem pickups, I think the range really becomes 56-59, depending on how OR, MN, and NC turn out. As of now, I would guess NC and OR go to the Democrats while MN goes to the Republicans, making in 58. But 60, shockingly, is conceivable at this point, with a decent shot at 59 (assuming Lieberman caucuses Dem).
As soon as Dems get to 50 +Sanders, Lieberman is gone. He will be persona non grata in the Senate. He will have now power with the majority and most of the minority views him warily. The only way he gets anything in the next Senate is if the Repubs get beat down so bad that they give up and just appoint him as Ranking Member to some important committee just to piss the Dems off.
A poll by the Louisville Courier-Journal last Tuesday-Friday (Sept 22-25) puts Mitch McConnell vs. Bruce Lunsford in a dead heat. Until now, I don't think anyone actually thought this race was competitive. But I find it hard to believe McConnell can lose this. Only a gigantic national anti-Republican tidal-wave could sweep someone like him out. http://www.courier-journal.com/apps...NEWS0106/809270303&referrer=FRONTPAGECAROUSEL
If Shaheen beats Sununu, America deserves what it gets. That would be the worst expression of a completely illegitimate candidate beating the one with a great record, based solely on perception of the parties, since the Democrats successfully mobilized the racist wing of their party to beat Michael Steele.
